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Big opportunity for Arkansas in final road game at Florida

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Dusty Hannahs drives for a layup against KeVaughn Allen in last year's SEC Tournament
Dusty Hannahs drives for a layup against KeVaughn Allen in last year's SEC Tournament (Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports)
ARKANSAS GAME DAY

WHO

Arkansas (22-7, 11-5 SEC | 32 RPI) @ Florida (23-6, 13-3 SEC | 5 RPI)

WHAT

Final Regular Season Road Game for the Razorbacks

WHERE

Gainesville, Florida | Stephen C. O'Connell Center (10,133 cap.)

WHEN

Wednesday, March 1 @ 6 p.m. (CST) on ESPN2

ARKANSAS GAME NOTES | FLORIDA GAME NOTES | UA @ UF GAME STREAM

If the season ended right now, or even after tonight's game at Florida, Arkansas would be in the NCAA Tournament without question.

But the season doesn't end tonight and the Razorbacks are still guaranteed at least three more games. The optimist sees that as three more opportunities to improve their seed. The pessimist knows that if Arkansas were to close things out with three-straight losses then that spot might not look so guaranteed.

The number is still 12 wins in SEC play for Arkansas to be essentially guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance. Right now, Arkansas is at 11-5 with two regular season games to play.

The 12-win total has been reviewed numerous times; last season a 19-win Vanderbilt team got in at 11-7 but a 24-win South Carolina team did not get in at 11-7. Both those teams lost first round games in the SEC Tournament.

Win this one on the road and Arkansas is in with a much improved seed. Lose this one and beat UGA at home and the Hogs stand about a 99 percent chance of making the NCAAs. Lose both and drop a first round game in the SEC Tournament, and that's a red flag, especially if it's against a 12 or 13 seed (more on that later). They'll still stand a good shot at getting in, but it will be a nervous Selection Sunday with an underdog seed for sure.

Best case scenario for Arkansas the rest of the way is for the Hogs to win the last two games, Florida to also lose at Vanderbilt (a team that beat them in Gainesville) and for South Carolina to win out. In that case, Arkansas would secure the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament by virtue of a tie-breaker with South Carolina and Florida if it comes to that. Florida would be 2-2 against Arkansas and South Carolina. South Carolina would be 1-2 against Florida and Arkansas, and Arkansas would be 2-1 versus South Carolina and Florida. That would make the Hogs a 2-seed.

Tie-breakers are head-to-head, then it comes down to their records versus the top seeds from No. 1 to No. 14 until the tie is broken.

Arkansas is currently in third place in the SEC. If the Hogs were to lose to both Florida and Georgia, at the very worst they would end up in a tie for 4th place with the head-to-head tie-breaker over Ole Miss and Alabama (if those teams win their two remaining games). So, Arkansas at this point can do no worse than a 4-seed in the SEC Tournament.

Arkansas will get a double-bye in the conference tournament no matter what happens, but if they were to lose at Florida and at home to Georgia this weekend and somehow the 12 or 13 seed beats the No. 5 seed and plays Arkansas and beats them, that could look really ugly on the resume.

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