ESPN BPI projections for final 5 games: Can Arkansas win out?

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Once firmly in the NCAA Tournament field, Arkansas is reeling.

The Razorbacks dropped their fifth straight game - and eighth in their last 10 - Tuesday night in a 73-59 loss at Florida and now finds themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.

In the latest NET rankings, Arkansas fell three spots to No. 51 - its lowest ranking of the season after being in the top 25 as recently as Jan. 17. Now the second team listed among the "Last Four Out" on BracketMatrix.com, the Razorbacks are included in only 32 of 108 bracketology projections.

Getting back into the NCAA Tournament picture won't be easy. Not only will Arkansas have to flip the switch and start winning games, it will likely need to win all five of its remaining regular-season games - or make a run at the SEC Tournament.

As the NET currently stands, the Razorbacks have no more Quadrant 1 opportunities. Only one of those games even has a chance to become a Q1 game, as LSU is No. 31 and must be in the top 30 to elevate the March 4 matchup into the top quadrant.

Arkansas is just 2-6 in Quadrant 1 games this season, with the two wins coming at Indiana and Alabama. Four of those losses have come by seven or fewer points, including a last-second two-point loss at LSU and a three-point overtime loss to Auburn.

With only the one possible opportunity to add a resume-building win, the Razorbacks probably need to go 5-0 to get to 21-10 overall and 9-9 in SEC play.

How likely is that to actually happen? According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Arkansas at least has a shot.

It has a 60 percent or better chance to win in four of its final games, with the aforementioned LSU game being the exception. The Razorbacks are still considered the favorite, but are giving just a 55.0 percent chance of winning - as seen in the first table below.

Although favored in each game, it wouldn't be accurate to say the BPI is predicting Arkansas to finish 5-0. It still has a chance to lose each game and, using the BPI's percentages, a 4-1 record over the next two and a half weeks is most likely.

As seen in the second chart below, though, the Razorbacks do have a 13.4 percent chance of getting to that 21-win mark before the SEC Tournament. However, they are more than twice as likely to lose a couple of their remaining games than win all five.