HawgBeat Hoops Mailbag w/JC Hoops: 2/24
Once again we continue our weekly mailbag series answering reader questions. As always, every question posted on the HawgBeat premium message board, The Trough, is answered, while some of the ones from Twitter are. The questions have been fantastic lately, so keep up the good work down the home stretch of the season!
Minutes breakdown the remainder of the year? - HawgBeat user @PorkshankRedemption
It's tough to say for sure because matchups play a part in rotations and lineups on any given night. I do think with what we've seen recently the rotation has changed and is more solidified than it has been since both Nick Smith Jr. and Trevon Brazile went down with injuries.
Nick Smith Jr.: 35
Anthony Black: 35
Ricky Council IV: 30
Davonte Davis: 25
Makhi Mitchell: 20
Jordan Walsh: 20
Jalen Graham: 15
Makhel Mitchell: 10
Obviously this is a very rough estimate, and won't be 100% accurate, but it's more for illustrative purposes, anyway. The total adds up to 200 minutes because that's how many a team can play per night (five players multiplied by 40 minutes of game time).
With Smith back in the rotation, the backcourt won't be required to play upwards of 40 minutes a game now. The 35 minute marks for Black and Smith will be necessary because of how dynamic each is and how they can create for themselves and their teammates. There is no question that Arkansas is a better team when each of the two plays a great deal of minutes, but having both of them healthy allows for one of them to come out for a break without too much drop off. Particularly with Council coming off the bench now.
Council's role as a scorer off the bench will likely slightly reduce his minutes, but it will be to the benefit of Arkansas, who gets one of the best scorers in the SEC off the bench, and, so far, has played more efficiently in that role.
Davis, on the other hand, will remain in the starting lineup while also playing an adjusted role. He is no longer the go-to scorer like he was before Smith's return, especially with the emergence of Graham, but the team still performs well with Davis on the floor. He is still one of the best defenders on the team and is a legitimate outside threat after the past month-plus of shooting well. Defenses have to play him honestly while also having to account for Smith, Black, Council and Graham at any given time.
The frontcourt can now operate much more by committee like I thought it might from the beginning of the season. Graham has put together back-to-back solid performances on both sides of the ball, but has really shined offensively, recording a career-high 26 points against Florida. His success will make it impossible to keep him off the floor, while the Mitchell twins have proven their worth throughout the year.
Walsh may be a surprise to some readers, but he's played right at 23.7 minutes per game throughout the season so far. With Graham earning more playing time and Smith back into the rotation, he might lose a few minutes, but is still a valuable and versatile piece to this roster.
Even though this team will not be seeded as highly as the previous two years, do you believe this current team is better equipped for a final four run than the previous two teams? - Twitter user @BroMattPaul
Honestly, I think so. Three point shooting is better on this team than it was a year ago, particularly recently, I think there's more talent as a whole on this roster, the backcourt has much more depth and more players who can handle the basketball, the frontcourt has some legitimate interior defenders in isolation and rim protection, and the defensive efficiency is still one of the best in the country.
The issue with this season have been injuries and youth. They struggled to close out close games on the road and were forced to adjust to a completely different rotation and completely different roles than anticipated at the start of the season.
Two defining characteristics of winning teams in March are strong guard play and good defense. The Razorbacks check both boxes right now, and are still developing chemistry and offense since Smith's return.
Based off of the last two games, do you think they finally found the ideal starting five? What's your best case & worst case scenarios for Arkansas' seeding in the NCAA tournament? - Twitter user @lonestarhog2017
Absolutely. The starting five of Black, Smith, Davis, Walsh and Makhi Mitchell checks all the boxes to succeed and finely tunes the roles for each player. That starting lineup still has plenty of size, athleticism, scoring, defense, and rim protection. I already addressed all the roles above, but the lineup should remain the same throughout the year, unless there's a matchup that sees the need for the twin towers.
As far as NCAA Tournament seeding goes, Arkansas is a very interesting (and difficult) team to seed. The Razorbacks have elite metrics, a poor road record, and an average-to-good quality of resume. If the best-case scenario is winning out the regular season and winning the SEC Tournament (which is highly unlikely), I think Arkansas could manage a four seed in that scenario.
Worst-case scenario being that Arkansas loses all three remaining regular season games and the opening game in the SEC Tournament, I think they probably finish on the nine or 10 seed line. All of this is subject to change and depends on a number of factors, including how other, similar teams perform.
Realistically, if Arkansas goes 2-1 to finish the season and wins at least one game in the SEC Tournament, I could see them earning a six seed, maybe a seven seed.