Historical trends: Will Arkansas host a regional, earn top-8 seed?
Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, Arkansas is still projected to host a regional, but not as a top-eight national seed.
Baseball America has the Razorbacks as the No. 11 seed in its latest NCAA Tournament projection, while D1Baseball has them at No. 13.
Assuming no upsets, Arkansas would go from playing a regional at Baum-Walker Stadium to traveling to Miami (Fla.), which the outlets have as the No. 6 and No. 4 overall seed, respectively.
However, there is still time for the Razorbacks to climb back up into the top-eight conversation. They play Alabama on the road this weekend and then head to Hoover, Ala., for the SEC Tournament.
Arkansas is very much still alive for an SEC West title, but its lead has dwindled to zero and will enter the Alabama series tied for first with Texas A&M, which is traveling to Ole Miss this weekend.
Winning the division could go a long way in securing home field advantage throughout the postseason, as nine of the last 10 SEC West champions earned top-eight seeds. The lone exception was Ole Miss in 2014, when the Rebels went 19-11, but were just a regional host.
Conference record and standing is not the only factor at play. The Rebels were No. 14 in the RPI that year, while the Razorbacks are No. 26 after Tuesday's games.
That is well outside the typical range for top-eight national seeds and seven spots lower than Tulane was in 2001, when it became the lowest-ranked team in the RPI (No. 19) to earn a top-eight seed in the current format of the NCAA Tournament.
It's an unusual spot to be in because SEC programs with 18, 19, 20 or more conference wins are typically ranked much higher in the RPI.
Here's a look at SEC teams who have won between 17-20 conference games -- the range Arkansas is guaranteed to finish within - over the previous 10 seasons, along with how they did at the SEC Tournament and their RPI, providing some historical trends to keep an eye on leading up to the selection show...
*won SEC Tournament
Reached College World Series in bold
Team | Record | Finish in Division | Wins in Hoover | RPI | Postseason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 Florida |
17-13 |
3rd |
3 |
No. 17 |
host |
2019 LSU |
17-13 |
3rd |
3 |
No. 16 |
host |
2018 South Carolina |
17-13 |
3rd |
1 |
No. 43 |
2 seed |
2017 Miss. State |
17-13 |
3rd |
2 |
No. 28 |
2 seed |
2015 Arkansas |
17-12 |
3rd |
2 |
No. 35 |
2 seed |
2014 Vanderbilt |
17-13 |
3rd |
1 |
No. 8 |
host |
2014 LSU |
17-11-1 |
2nd |
4* |
No. 9 |
top-8 |
2013 South Carolina |
17-12 |
2nd |
0 |
No. 13 |
host |
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Team | Record | Finish in Division | Wins in Hoover | RPI | Postseason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 Ole Miss |
18-12 |
3rd |
3 |
No. 12 |
host |
2018 Georgia |
18-12 |
2nd |
0 |
No. 9 |
top-8 |
2018 Ole Miss |
18-12 |
t-1st |
4* |
No. 5 |
top-8 |
2018 Arkansas |
18-12 |
t-1st |
2 |
No. 3 |
top-8 |
2017 Arkansas |
18-11 |
2nd |
3 |
No. 14 |
host |
2016 Ole Miss |
18-12 |
4th |
2 |
No. 5 |
host |
2016 Vanderbilt |
18-12 |
3rd |
2 |
No. 9 |
host |
2015 Texas A&M |
18-10 |
2nd |
2 |
No. 6 |
host |
2014 Miss. State |
18-12 |
3rd |
2 |
No. 32 |
2 seed |
2014 South Carolina |
18-12 |
2nd |
0 |
No. 12 |
host |
2013 Arkansas |
18-11 |
2nd |
2 |
No. 31 |
2 seed |
2012 South Carolina |
18-11 |
1st |
1 |
No. 11 |
top-8 |
2012 Florida |
18-12 |
t-2nd |
2 |
No. 2 |
top-8 |
2012 Kentucky |
18-12 |
t-2nd |
2 |
No. 17 |
2 seed |
Team | Record | Finish in Division | Wins in Hoover | RPI | Postseason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 Vanderbilt |
19-10 |
2nd |
1 |
No. 3 |
top-8 |
2017 Kentucky |
19-11 |
2nd |
1 |
No. 9 |
host |
2016 LSU |
19-11 |
3rd |
3 |
No. 7 |
top-8 |
2016 Florida |
19-10 |
2nd |
3 |
No. 1 |
top-8 |
2015 Florida |
19-11 |
2nd |
4* |
No. 3 |
top-8 |
2014 Ole Miss |
19-11 |
1st |
1 |
No. 14 |
host |
2012 LSU |
19-11 |
1st |
1 |
No. 7 |
top-8 |
Team | Record | Finish in Division | Wins in Hoover | RPI | Postseason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 Tennessee |
20-10 |
1st |
3 |
No. 5 |
top-8 |
2021 Miss. State |
20-10 |
2nd |
0 |
No. 7 |
top-8 |
2019 Arkansas |
20-10 |
t-1st |
1 |
No. 6 |
top-8 |
2019 Miss. State |
20-10 |
t-1st |
1 |
No. 4 |
top-8 |
2018 Florida |
20-10 |
1st |
1 |
No. 1 |
top-8 |
2016 Texas A&M |
20-10 |
2nd |
4* |
No. 4 |
top-8 |
2016 South Carolina |
20-9 |
1st |
0 |
No. 8 |
host |
2015 Vanderbilt |
20-10 |
1st |
3 |
No. 10 |
host |