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Hutch's 2020 Arkansas Game-by-Game Predictions

Arkansas will play a 10-game, SEC-only schedule in 2020.
Arkansas will play a 10-game, SEC-only schedule in 2020. (Arkansas Athletics)

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It is officially game week.

For the first time as Arkansas’ head coach, Sam Pittman will lead the Razorbacks into the 2020 season against No. 4 Georgia at 3 p.m. Saturday. It will be televised on the SEC Network.

Before they hit the gridiron, here are my official game-by-game score predictions for the season…

Sept. 26 - vs. Georgia - L, 38-14

Talk about a brutal draw for the first game of the Pittman era. The Bulldogs have won three straight SEC East titles and have fewer losses (7) than Arkansas has wins (8) during that span.

Jamie Newman’s decision to opt out of the season was certainly a blow, but regardless if JT Daniels or D’Wan Mathis wins the starting quarterback job, Georgia will still have one of the best defenses in the country. Moving the ball will be extremely tough for the Razorbacks.

I see the game being relatively close for a little bit, with the Bulldogs leading 17-14 or so at halftime, before the talent difference between the two schools leads to Georgia pulling away in the second half.

Oct. 3 - at Mississippi State - L, 45-42

One of three games most fans have circled as potential wins, ESPN’s Football Power Index actually lists Arkansas as a slight favorite in this matchup.

What gives me pause about this game is that it’s on the road. Home field advantage probably won’t be the same this year as it has in the past because of attendance restrictions, but the cowbells in Starkville will help offset some of that difference.

Mike Leach went 3-9 in his first season at Washington State as the Cougars struggled to adjust to his air raid offense. However, he added quarterback K.J. Costello as a graduate transfer and also has preseason All-SEC running back Kylin Hill, so the Bulldogs should have enough weapons to put up some points.

This game has all the makings of a classic shootout. It could go Arkansas’ way, but I see Mississippi State squeaking out the victory.

Oct. 10 - at Auburn - L, 31-20

If Arkansas fans could choose one upset in 2020, a lot of them would likely point to the Auburn game. Not only are the Tigers still coached by Gus Malzahn, one of the most divisive football figures in state history, but they hired Chad Morris - who is universally hated by the fanbase - as offensive coordinator.

Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, there is still a vast gap in talent between the two programs. Morris will probably be better as a coordinator than head coach, as it wouldn’t take much, but he’ll still have better pieces to work with than he had here even if he’s terrible.

Oct. 17 - vs. Ole Miss - W, 31-28

Riding a 22-game SEC losing streak, the Razorbacks will welcome Ole Miss to Fayetteville for their last game before the open date. If they don’t beat Mississippi State, this is a virtual must-win for Arkansas because a loss means it will almost certainly start 0-8 and make 0-10 a real possibility.

The Rebels are the last SEC team the Razorbacks beat and the two teams have played some wild games through the years. It will probably take some weirdness to pull off this victory.

I’m thinking this will be the game Treylon Burks ends Arkansas’ long drought without a punt return for a touchdown. It will be one of many highlights for Burks in a game that cements his place in Arkansas history.

Oct. 31 - at Texas A&M - L, 35-32

Arkansas and Texas A&M have also played some wild games in recent years. The difference between this series and the one with Ole Miss, though, is that the Razorbacks always find a heartbreaking way to lose.

On paper, the Aggies are way more talented than Arkansas and some are predicting them to be Alabama’s biggest challenger in the SEC West. That may be true, but it’s never prevented this matchup from being close.

While I don’t think the Razorbacks win, it could be a tight game. I see Texas A&M racing out to a big lead and Arkansas rallying, even converting a two-point conversion to pull within a field goal late in the fourth quarter, but ultimately coming up short.

Nov. 7 - vs. Tennessee - L, 28-20

After a shaky 1-4 start that included losses to Georgia State and BYU, Tennessee regrouped and won its final six games. That started an offseason hype train for the Volunteers, who checked in at No. 25 in the preseason AP Poll - before Big Ten and Pac-12 teams were removed.

I’m not sold on Tennessee being a legitimate third contender in the East along with Georgia and Florida. That said, it should still be a better team than the Razorbacks - who keep it close, but ultimately don’t have enough to pull off the upset.

Nov. 14 - at Florida - L, 38-28

The only reason I think Arkansas has a chance to stay within two possessions of Florida in the Swamp is because Feleipe Franks should be extra motivated for this game. A native of the Sunshine State, he was never really embraced by Gators fans and he’ll want to show them what they missed out on.

However, Kyle Trask is also a solid quarterback and should put up some big numbers in his second year as the starter under Dan Mullen. Plus, Florida is my pick to win the East, so it can’t lose to a team like Arkansas.

Nov. 21 - vs. LSU - L, 21-14

There have been some blowouts recently, including last year’s 56-20 loss, but Arkansas and LSU have a history of close games. From 2005-2013, eight of their nine matchups were decided by one possession or less.

With several starters - including Heisman Trophy quarterback Joe Burrow - as well as passing game coordinator Joe Brady and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda no longer in Baton Rouge, I’m expecting the Tigers to fall back to earth a little bit in 2020.

I envision this game being a defensive slugfest. I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams scored a defensive touchdown. Much like several of the other games, Arkansas won’t have the horses to finish the upset.

Nov. 28 - at Missouri - W, 38-13

All of the close losses will culminate with a dominant showing in Columbia, Mo. The Tigers have also given Arkansas fits since joining the SEC, winning five of the six matchups, so it will be taking out its frustrations for that, as well.

I see the Razorbacks jumping out to a quick lead, perhaps returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown or scoring on the first or second play on a long run by Rakeem Boyd, and never looking back.

Dec. 5 - vs. Alabama - L, 41-28

That would be the perfect way to cap Pittman’s first season, but the weirdness of 2020 requires Arkansas to play one more game - against Alabama.

Considering they’ve lost 13 straight games to the Crimson Tide and they’re one of the preseason favorites to win the national title, it would take a miracle for the Razorbacks to win this game. I feel like they may score a couple of garbage-time touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but the result will have already been decided at that point.

FINAL RECORD: 2-8

On the surface, another two-win season doesn’t sound great for Arkansas. Put it in context, though, and that would actually be pretty solid.

Instead of getting games against Nevada, Charleston Southern and ULM, there are no cupcakes on the Razorbacks’ schedule because of the coronavirus-induced modifications. Not only that, but the SEC didn’t even give them a Vanderbilt or South Carolina from the East. It was the complete opposite, adding Georgia and Florida.

Two wins in SEC play would snap Arkansas’ long conference losing streak and also double its total from the previous three years combined. If my predicted margin of victory against Missouri - 25 points - holds true, it would be the Razorbacks’ largest win in SEC play since beating the Tigers 28-3 at the end of the 2015 regular season.

On top of that, my average margin for all games is just minus-5.1 - a drastic improvement on last year’s minus-15.42, which was Arkansas’ worst average scoring margin in a century.

Using my predicted scores, the Razorbacks’ scoring offense would improve from 21.4 to 26.7. That is just under what we projected using the average impact of offensive coordinator Kendal Briles at his last three stops. Their scoring defense would improve from a school-worst 36.8 to 31.8, which is exactly what we projected based on defensive coordinator Barry Odom’s past.

Andrew Hutchinson's Past Season Predictions
Season Prediction Actual

2019

5-7 (1-7)

2-10 (0-8)

2018

6-6 (2-6)

2-10 (0-8)

2017

7-5 (4-4)

4-8 (1-7)

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