JC Hoops Bracketology: 1/3/24
New year, new JC Hoops Bracketology. For the third year in a row, HawgBeat basketball analysts Jackson Collier is trying his hand at bracketology with a more firm formula.
For those who don't know how bracketology works, it is the process of projecting the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field at any point of the season leading up to Selection Sunday, which will be held March 17 this year.
There is no set formula the selection committee uses, but the data points are the same: NET, quadrant wins, road wins, efficiency metrics, strength of record and more. There is a science to the whole process.
While Arkansas' 9-4 record after non-conference play has it out of the field right now, there are plenty of opportunities for the Razorbacks to improve their resume, starting with a home matchup against an Auburn team that presents a Quadrant 1 win for NET ranking purposes.
This is my first seed list of the season, and the goal is to update it weekly moving forward.
| Seed | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Purdue |
Houston |
Kansas |
Marquette |
|
2 |
Arizona |
UCONN |
Clemson |
Tennessee |
|
3 |
Illinois |
Wisconsin |
BYU |
UNC |
|
4 |
Utah |
Baylor |
Memphis |
Auburn |
|
5 |
Colorado State |
Duke |
Oklahoma |
Kentucky |
|
6 |
Texas A&M |
Creighton |
Villanova |
Dayton |
|
7 |
Ohio State |
SDSU |
FAU |
Nevada |
|
8 |
Providence |
Iowa State |
James Madison |
Alabama |
|
9 |
Texas |
Mississippi State |
Florida |
Princeton |
|
10 |
Utah State |
Colorado |
Ole Miss |
New Mexico |
|
11 |
South Carolina |
Texas Tech |
Miami (FL) |
St. John's |
|
12 |
Michigan State |
TCU/Grand Canyon |
Wake Forest/Indiana State |
Gonzaga |
|
13 |
McNeese |
UC Irvine |
Liberty |
IUPFW |
|
14 |
Weber State |
Samford |
Longwood |
Morehead State |
|
15 |
UNCW |
Akron |
Lipscomb |
Vermont |
|
16 |
Colgate |
Norfolk State/Southern |
Marist/Wagner |
South Dakota State |
|
First Four Out |
Virginia |
Cincinnati |
Oregon |
Virginia Tech |
|
Next Four Out |
Northwestern |
NC State |
Washington |
Nebraska |
Arkansas:
The Razorbacks currently sit as the 10th team outside of the field in the JC Hoops Bracketology. There is plenty of time to make their way into the field and a win over Auburn on Saturday would help a lot.
Ideally, what Arkansas needs to do is start SEC play at least 3-1. Not only would that have them firmly in the field at that point of the season, but it would also give Arkansas a soft cushion for a little bit, given that going 3-1 would include at least one road victory, as well.
For the whole season, though, the Razorbacks are looking at needing a at least a 10-8 conference record to make the tournament. Depending on how other teams perform, 9-9 could be sufficient, but that would be a bit dicey.
On top of just winning games, Arkansas needs to look good in wins and losses. Efficiency metrics matter, and right now those are holding Arkansas back a great deal, which is the exact opposite of years' past. Saturday might not be a "must-win" game for the Razorbacks, but it's close to pushing that line.
Interesting seedings:
It's early in the season, of course, but some teams have found themselves in unprecedented territory in terms of where they are seeded. Clemson, for instance, has rightfully earned its spot on the two-seed line with the Tigers' play so far this year. Their metrics are strong, they have quality win and no bad losses.
Perhaps a few of the weirdest resumes are Alabama, Florida Atlantic and Villanova.
The Crimson Tide have incredible efficiency metrics, average resume metrics and no major wins. Yet, because of their strong efficiency metrics, they are still firmly in the field with an 8-5 record, including being 0-5 in Quad 1 games.
Florida Atlantic is a mixed bag. The Owls have two Quad 1 wins, both of them actually even being Quad 1A wins, an even higher quality, but to offset those wins, they have two Quad 4 losses. As good as they have been, the losses make them difficult to seed much higher than they are, but the wins are carrying them right now.
In a similar boat to the Owls, Villanova is 3-0 in Quad 1 games, 2-0 in Quad 1A games, but has two Quad 3 losses. While quality wins matter, perhaps one of the most important data points for seeding purposes is not having any bad losses. Both the Wildcats and Owls are victims to that, as are the Razorbacks with a Quad 4 loss to UNC Greensboro at home.
Also, Gonzaga is in unprecedented territory of needing the automatic qualifier to make the field. The Bulldogs have no bad losses, but no quality wins and a home loss with a weak strength of schedule thus far.
Dark Horses:
A few programs kept popping up as dark horse candidates, either for an at-large bid or for winning the NCAA Tournament based on current metrics and wins. Clemson is a dark horse for me to win at all, especially with a player like PJ Hall. Other teams to watch for the whole thing are Illinois, BYU and Auburn.
In terms of dark horses to be an at-large bid, I keep looking at Indiana State as a potential at-large bid if it doesn't win its conference, as well as Princeton, Grand Canyon and even San Francisco.
Breakdown by conference:
SEC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 8
ACC: 5
Big Ten: 5
Pac 12: 3