Predicting Arkansas basketball's conference record

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Arkansas closed the chapter on its first part of the season, capping off the non-conference portion of the schedule (aside from Baylor) with a win over UNC Asheville to finish 11-1. The Razorbacks are in a great spot moving forward, as their NCAA Tournament resume and metrics are all very highly ranked.

With the uncertainty of the roster situation unfolding - losing Trevon Brazile for the year and Nick Smith Jr.’s uncertain status - I wanted to wait as long as possible before officially putting my conference predictions out there. So, here they are:

2020 predictions: 21-5 (13-5)

2020 actual record: 21-5 (13-4) (Texas A&M game canceled)

2021 predictions: 20-11 (10-8)

2021 actual record: 24-7 (13-5)

2022 non-conference prediction: 11-1

2022 actual non-conference record: 11-1

*records do not include SEC Tournament or NCAA Tournament*

The conference opener for Arkansas comes on the road after holiday break. The LSU Tigers have an impressive record on the season, sitting at 11-1 as well, but they have played one of the weakest schedules in all of college basketball. The Tigers come in ranked 69th in the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) with a Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranking of 348th.

None of this guarantees an Arkansas victory, but the Razorbacks have played a much tougher schedule and have looked better doing so.

First-year head coach Matt McMahon had his work cut out for him in rebuilding a decimated LSU roster after Will Wade was fired, but he managed to fill out a roster with some quality players. A few of these players simply came over from Murray State with McMahon, which isn’t a bad thing when establishing culture in the long run, but some of them just simply aren’t SEC caliber basketball players.

Their best player, KJ Williams, made the jump from Murray State and looks every bit of an SEC player, though. He is averaging 19.3 points and 8.3 rebounds a game at 6-foot-10, 245 pounds. He will be the biggest test Arkansas has faced on the interior since Ryan Kalkbrenner of Creighton.

Outside of the interior matchup, Arkansas holds advantages in talent, size, depth and experience.

Missouri is in a similar spot to LSU. First-year head coach, solid record, weak schedule and new pieces.

Granted, the Missouri Tigers have played a tougher schedule than LSU, and even have a major victory over Illinois where they destroyed the Illini at home.

The matchup against Arkansas will be Missouri’s second true road game of the season, the first being an overtime victory over Wichita State. Arkansas is 21-6 at home in conference play under Eric Musselman, but over the last two years it is 16-2. With it being the home conference opener for Arkansas, the crowd will be raucous, and Arkansas just doesn’t lose often at home under Musselman.

The Tigers do boast a wealth of experience, but not much size at all. D’Moi Hodge has been one of the best three-level scorers in the country this year, averaging 16.7 points per game and shooting 42.4% from three, but Arkansas has largely held good guards in check. Kobe Brown will be another interior force, but he is undersized at 6-foot-7 and Makhi Mitchell has proven he can defend at an elite level without getting into foul trouble.

This matchup will likely be the biggest to-date for the Razorbacks: on the road against a ranked conference opponent in a hostile environment. Arkansas is familiar with the Auburn backcourt of KD Johnson, Wendell Green and Allen Flanigan, and Musselman has had success limiting that backcourt’s production in the teams’ meetings thus far. The Tigers do have two strong interior players that could help take the pressure off the guards, though.

Transfer Johni Broome and veteran Jaylin Williams each average double digits while rebounding at a high level and defending well. While Arkansas has the best frontcourt it has had in years, it will be difficult to produce against William and Broome offensively. Luckily, the Auburn frontcourt will have the same issue against the Razorback frontcourt.

Ultimately, if the game turns into a guard battle, that favors Arkansas with Black, Council, and Davis’s length, athleticism and talent.

Alabama is looking like the best team Nate Oats has had in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide have played a gauntlet of a schedule, with matchups against Michigan State, North Carolina, Connecticut, Houston, and Gonzaga. Their only two losses on the year came against Connecticut and Gonzaga.

While the Tide’s defense seems to have improved from last year to this year, it is still inconsistent. They’ve allowed over 100 points twice already this year, and on average they are allowing opponents to score 72.1 points and are forcing 12.2 turnovers per game.

Their biggest strength is probably their rebounding, ranking first in total rebounding and defensive rebounding, and fourth in offensive rebounding. Alabama closes out possessions for other teams and gives themselves opportunities to score on second chance opportunities.

On the other hand, Arkansas is an average rebounding team, but has limited opponents to just over 30 rebounds per game, one of the lowest totals in the nation. Being at Bud Walton Arena and having such a strong front court, I’ll give the edge to Arkansas here again. Alabama is only shooting 34.0% from three on the year, and unless it hits a barrage against the Razorbacks, the Tide should feel out of their element in Fayetteville.

After taking a step forward last season, going 19-17 (7-11), it looks like the Commodores have taken a big step back this season. So far they are 6-6 and have lost to Southern Miss, VCU and Grambling, among other schools.

Vanderbilt doesn’t do anything particularly well outside of blocking shots. Seven-footer Liam Robbins is a big part of that. He averages 2.8 blocks per game himself, while the team blocks the 21st-most shots per game in the country (5.3). Not to minimize any opponent too much, but Vanderbilt should be a relatively easy win for Arkansas.

This matchup will probably be a little closer given that the Tigers will have home court advantage, but Arkansas should be able to key in on Hodge and defend the interior well enough that home court advantage won’t matter so much.

Missouri has already sold out two home games and its fans were pretty raucous in those games. Having a ranked Arkansas team come in should have the crowd ready to pounce. The Razorbacks will have to take the crowd out of the game early to make the experience much more pleasant.

Ole Miss had a promising 6-0 start to the season, but has lost four of its last six games since. Two of those came against solid opponents in Oklahoma and Memphis, but the other two were to Central Florida and North Alabama.

Outside of Matthew Murrell, the Rebels don’t have a major scoring threat, and they don’t have hardly any size at all. They’re a decent enough defensive team, but struggle against teams with size and athleticism.

Arkansas should benefit from the matchup and handle Ole Miss at home.

The same reasoning from the first matchup applies. The Tigers will be a good program under McMahon, but this year he just doesn’t have the horses and they have yet to play a tough schedule at all.

The official last non-conference game of the season, the Razorbacks drew a Baylor team that has been on a tear the last few years as one of the best programs in college basketball. Despite two losses already this season, the Bears are still a very strong team that will present problems for Arkansas.

Scott Drew coaches physical, athletic teams that impose their will on opponents with efficiency and hard-nosed defense. They’re forcing turnovers at a high rate, holding opponents to low scoring totals, and scoring a lot of points themselves.

At times, Arkansas has turned the ball over against pesky defenses, but more often than not they still have found a way to score.

With the game being played in Waco, the Hogs will have a tough task against one of the great home court environments in the country. The Razorbacks have a good shot at coming out on top, but they would have to play largely mistake-free basketball.

As much as Arkansas loves to capitalize on forcing turnovers, Baylor does the same. In a lot of ways, the teams are similar, except that Baylor also shoots over 35% from three. All things considered, I give Baylor the edge here.

Texas A&M is having a rough go of it so far this year. After making a run to end last year and feeling snubbed they missed the NCAA Tournament, the Aggies are just 7-5 with some terrible losses to start this year.

They’ve managed to lose to Wofford at home and Murray State and Boise State both on a neutral courts. The Aggies get to the free throw line a ton, and make a lot of their attempts, but that’s about the only thing they’ve got going for them this year. Arkansas should be able to take care of business, defend without fouling, and force turnovers on the Razorbacks' way to another conference victory.

In a year where the bottom of the SEC is extremely weak, the Gamecocks are doing their best to claim the title of worst team in the conference.

Stud freshman GG Jackson has been fantastic, but outside of him and a couple other starters, there is absolutely no production whatsoever. South Carolina only scores 64.1 points per game, they shoot a very low level across all statistics, and they turn the ball over a good amount. This should not be a contest.

An interesting matchup inside, Makhi Mitchell will likely draw the task of defending Kentucky big man Oscar Tshiebwe. The senior has been fantastic for the Wildcats, averaging 15.0 points and 13.0 rebounds per game.

This Kentucky team is supremely talented, per usual, but John Calipari has used his rotations in a strange manner thus far. The spacing has not been great, and as a result, Kentucky has lost some close games they probably should’ve won, namely Michigan State.

They shoot almost 40% from outside, which should help space the floor, but oftentimes the Wildcats run two bigs at a time that clog the paint and struggle against versatile forwards on the defensive end.

This is a game where Trevon Brazile would’ve likely shined, but Arkansas has a shot to win even without him. Rupp Arena isn’t the feared environment of yesteryear, as Kentucky fans themselves have acknowledged even though the arena is full, it isn’t always loud and energetic.

Arkansas has the disadvantage of playing Kentucky later in the year after it can figure out its rotations a little bit better, but the same could be said for Kentucky facing Arkansas after honing in more roles and the freshmen continuing to develop. I’ll give the slightest edge to Kentucky.

First year coach Chris Jans has the Bulldogs ranked in the current AP Top-25, but how long will that last? Mississippi State is another team with a supremely weak schedule, ranked 279th in SOS, and has padded its resume with non-quality wins.

The last game the Bulldogs played was their first loss at the hands of Drake on a neutral floor. Prior to that, they beat Nicholls State by two at home and beat Jackson State by 10 on a neutral floor.

The Bulldogs do have one big win, though. Mississippi State edged out Marquette in a low-scoring affair on a neutral floor early in the season.

Defensively, the Bulldogs carry over Jans’ identity from New Mexico State: they only allow 52.3 points per game and are holding teams to just 10.3 free throw attempts per game. Despite this, Arkansas will attempt to speed up the game and get to the free throw line. I think they will succeed at both, especially at home.

Just being at home won’t be enough for the Aggies to overcome Arkansas. The Razorbacks are simply the superior team and Williams might be on the way out if the current trajectory of the season doesn’t change. The crowd environment will likely be lacking, unless fans show up to see a ranked Arkansas team playing.

Despite the 7-5 record so far, the Gators still have a strong path to the NCAA Tournament this season, mainly because of the tough schedule they’ve played thus far. Eventually, Florida will need to win a big game, but by the time Arkansas and Florida face off, it will have had ample opportunities.

Outside of Florida Atlantic, the Gators don’t have any “bad” losses, but they also don’t have a signature win. Colin Castleton is back and will be a strong force inside. He took what he wanted in last year’s matchup between these teams, but Arkansas has better interior defense this year.

Outside of Castleton, Florida boasts a few knock down shooters on the outside and blocks 5.9 shots per game.

As long as Arkansas can continue to defend the three well and manage Castleton inside with Mitchell, the Razorbacks should take care of business at home.

Georgia is another team with a deceptively good record. They sit at 9-3 in Mike White’s first season, but they also play the 267th weakest schedule in the country. Two of their losses aren’t good: a 14-point loss to UAB and a two-point loss to Georgia Tech. They do have one decent win over Notre Dame, though.

The Bulldogs turn the ball over a lot, lack an identity, are average at best in most statistical categories, and have limited production outside of Kario Oquendo and Terry Roberts. Arkansas at home should take care of business.

Musselman and Arkansas have struggled on the road in Tuscaloosa. I expect that trend to stay the same this year, despite Arkansas being the most talented it has been under Musselman.

The Tide at home are very dangerous. The crowd is always rowdy, especially for what will likely be a ranked matchup. I expect another close matchup, but ultimately give the edge to Alabama.

Arkansas and Tennessee split last year’s meetings, with the home teams winning each time. The Volunteers still have a core of players Razorback fans are familiar with: Santiago Vescovi, Uros Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua and Zakai Zeigler. They added some key transfers and freshman Julian Phillips to round out yet another talented roster for Rick Barnes.

The Volunteers have played a tough schedule and won some big games, including Maryland, Kansas, USC and Butler. The team is vintage Barnes: it holds teams to low scoring totals, has a high assist rate and forces a ton of turnovers.

Thompson-Boling Arena will be rabid, as these two teams will likely be fighting for the SEC regular season crown when the Razorback roll into Knoxville. Ultimately, being on the road in such a hostile environment against such a talented and defensive-minded team, it just seems like too much for Arkansas to overcome.

The regular season conclusion is Arkansas and Kentucky in Fayetteville. It will be one of the most intense environments of the year across college basketball, and the Razorbacks will also likely have major recruits visiting for such a high profile game.

Just as I gave Kentucky the edge for being at home, I’ll give Arkansas the edge here.

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