Predicting Arkansas' non-conference schedule
It’s that time of the year again. The leaves are changing colors, temperatures are dropping, and we are just weeks away from the beginning of the college basketball season.
Keeping with annual tradition at HawgBeat, I will be giving my preseason predictions for the Hogs' schedule.
Here are the non-conference predictions:
2020 predictions: 21-5 (13-5)
2020 actual record: 21-5 (13-4) (Texas A&M game canceled)
2021 predictions: 20-11 (10-8)
2021 actual record: 24-7 (13-5)
*records do not include SEC Tournament or NCAA Tournament*
Nov. 7 - North Dakota State: W
The Bison are coming off a 23-10 (13-5) season where they finished second in the Summit League. While it lost most of its starters, North Dakota State maintained to keep a few of its core rotational pieces, including one starter from last year’s team.
The lone returning starter is Grant Nelson, a 6-foot-11 junior forward, who averaged 11.6 points and 4.9 rebounds as a sophomore.
For a low-major, the Bison will come in with decent size, boasting four players at 6-foot-9 or taller. Additionally, they have an established winning culture under long-time head coach David Richman.
It should be a good early indicator of what the Razorbacks can do against some size and experience. The Bison were picked to finish fourth in the Summit League with room to move either way.
Arkansas should win handily in the its home opener.
Nov. 11 - Fordham: W
Fordham hired Keith Urgo in April of 2022 after he was the associate head coach under Kyle Neptune for the 2021-2022 season. With Neptune and Urgo leading the program, the team went from two wins in 2020-2021 to 16 wins in their season together. Now Urgo is the head man, and managed to hit the transfer portal hard.
The Rams landed a high major transfer in their portal haul in Khalid Moore from Georgia Tech, while also having two previous Penn State Nittany Lions on roster for the second consecutive season.
Fordham’s turnaround has been impressive, and they should be improved again this year, but they don’t have the horses to run with the Razorbacks, especially in Bud Walton Arena.
Nov. 16 - South Dakota State: W
Arkansas is dipping back into the Summit League, this time against South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits are one of the premiere low-major programs in the country, winning the Summit regular season title each of the three years head coach Eric Henderson has been at the helm.
They lost coveted wing Baylor Scheierman to the transfer portal. Despite that, the Jackrabbits return seven key contributors from last season, including three starters.
South Dakota State is projected to finish second in the Summit League behind Oral Roberts.
Nov. 21 - Louisville: W
Arkansas will head to Maui after a three-game homestand to open the season, with its first matchup in Hawaii coming against Louisville. After some tune-up games against quality low-major opponents, this can be viewed by many as the Razorbacks’ first real test.
Unfortunately, that might not be the case. Louisville lost a ton of talent last season, and, only after the late addition of freshman Fabio Basili does it look like they have more than one ball handler.
The front court is talented, and they have some big men that are versatile enough to play the wing, but outside of Basili and returning guard El Ellis, their backcourt has no depth and really no chance to compete with the talent Arkansas has.
Nov. 22 - Creighton/Texas Tech: L/W
This one comes down to the opponent. I can do a more comprehensive breakdown when this game is determined, but for now I think Arkansas would have a better chance to beat Texas Tech than Creighton. I'm not saying Arkansas wouldn’t beat Creighton at all, but the Blue Jays are a very good team this year.
Nov. 23 - TBA
This opponent depends on the other side of the bracket and if Arkansas keeps winning or is in the consolation bracket. Look for Ohio State or Arizona to be the matchup here, with San Diego State as a dark horse opponent.
Ultimately, I think Arkansas wins two games in Maui regardless, whether that’s the consolation game or runner-up for the whole invitational.
Nov. 28 - Troy: W
After the tough slate in Maui, Arkansas will return home to play the Troy Trojans out of the Sun Belt. In multiple preseason previews, the Trojans are projected in the bottom half of the conference, one having Troy finishing 11th out of 14 schools.
Head Coach Scott Cross righted the ship last year, managing to get to 20 wins and finishing fourth in the Sun Belt after combining for 20 wins across his first two years at the helm.
The Trojans return quite a few contributors, but lost three of their top four scorers from a year ago, and the production they’ve gotten to replace them is uncertain.
Dec. 3 - San Jose State: W
Tim Miles took over the floundering San Jose State program last year after being fired at Nebraska in 2019. His first season might not look good on paper, as the Spartans went 8-23 (1-17), but that was the most wins in a season for the program since winning 14 in 2016-2017.
Miles is a good coach and it isn’t outside of the imagination to think he can make that program respectable, but in year two coming into a powerhouse program like Arkansas, San Jose State stands no chance.
Dec. 6 -UNC-Greensboro: W
UNCG returns seven of its top nine scorers from a team that finished 17-15 (9-9). That season was good enough to finish fifth in the Southern Conference. Even with returning that much firepower, the two they don’t bring back were their top two scorers from a year ago.
It can be assumed the returning players can step up and make up for the loss in points to some degree, but it is unclear how they will make up all of that production. Also, this team just isn’t super talented to begin with. Returning a lot of players from a mediocre team does not necessarily mean the team will get better.
Dec. 10 - Oklahoma: W
Last year’s neutral site loss to Oklahoma was embarrassing, and was in the midst of another troubling early stretch in the Musselman era that ultimately saw the season end in an Elite Eight anyway.
Regardless, it was a bad loss. No one knows that more than Musselman.
The Sooners lost a lot, but still return the Groves twins and forward Jalen Hill. On top of that, they added more size from the portal in George Washington transfer Joe Bamisile.
The team looks fairly talented and should have some of the freshmen from last year develop a little bit.
Arkansas is the more talented team and you can bet the staff won’t forget last year.
Dec. 17 - Bradley: W
Bradley had a strong showing a season ago, finishing fifth in the Missouri Valley Conference at 11-7, while going 17-14 on the year. They return many of their starters and key contributors, while adding backcourt depth with the addition of Troy transfer Duke Deen.
Bradley will likely be an improved team, but still won’t be able to match the Razorbacks, but could be a sneaky good matchup. The Braves will be a good team in the MVC, and could even contend for the conference title along with Drake and Southern Illinois.
Dec. 21 - UNC-Asheville: W
Another team that looks poised to make a jump from a year ago, the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs return four starters from a team that went 17-15 (8-8) last season. They also added transfer guard Caleb Burgess from Hofstra, who was one of the top assisting guards in the nation.
The Bulldogs very well could push for a Big South title this year, and this could also be a sneaky good matchup before Arkansas kicks off conference play, but the Razorbacks should still win fairly easily.
Official non-conference prediction: 11-1
*Arkansas does play Baylor in the SEC/Big 12 challenge on Jan. 28, but that game will be added into the conference schedule prediction.*