Update: ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' remaining 9 games in 2020
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FAYETTEVILLE -- It may have given some hope to the fanbase, but Arkansas' season-opening loss to Georgia was not as well received by the computers.
Despite hanging with the No. 4 Bulldogs for a little more than a half before falling 37-10, the Razorbacks' chances of going winless in 2020 more than doubled, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
The FPI gave Arkansas just a 6.1 percent chance of posting an 0-10 record - and extending its SEC losing streak to 29 games - before the season, but that has grown to 13.5 percent.
Likewise, the Razorbacks' odds of winning at least two games to hit the over on the 1.5-win total set by most Las Vegas sports books took a hit, falling from 71.9 to 54.5 percent.
What likely contributed to the movement was not only Arkansas' game, but the performances of the other teams on its schedule.
Mississippi State, which they play Saturday, was the only team in the preseason the Razorbacks were favored to beat - at 50.5 percent. After the Bulldogs knocked off LSU in their opener, though, the odds dropped to just 25.1 percent.
Arkansas' odds against Ole Miss and Missouri also dipped below 40 percent after the opening weekend of games. Its best chance at a win, according to the FPI, is when the Rebels visit Fayetteville in a couple of weeks (36.3%), followed by the late-season trip to play the Tigers in Columbia, Mo. (31.7%).
The odds for each of the remaining nine games can be found in the first chart below, while the second chart shows the Razorbacks' possible record outcomes using the game-by-game numbers. As you can see, 1-9 is now slightly more likely than 2-8.
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NEW USERS | RETURNING USERS
| Game | Likelihood | Change since preseason |
|---|---|---|
|
Oct. 3 - at Mississippi St. |
25.1% |
-25.4% |
|
Oct. 10 - at Auburn |
5.7% |
-1.4% |
|
Oct. 17 - Ole Miss |
36.3% |
-4.0% |
|
Oct. 31 - at Texas A&M |
.15.6% |
+2.0% |
|
Nov. 7 - Tennessee |
29.8% |
-9.1% |
|
Nov. 14 - at Florida |
6.0% |
-1.9% |
|
Nov. 21 - LSU |
17.8% |
+7.3% |
|
Nov. 28 - at Missouri |
31.7% |
-10.1% |
|
Dec. 5 - Alabama |
3.7% |
-0.5% |
| Record | Likelihood | Change since preseason |
|---|---|---|
|
9-1 |
0.0000030% |
-0.000074% |
|
8-2 |
0.00023% |
-0.0023% |
|
7-3 |
0.0072% |
-0.037% |
|
6-4 |
0.11% |
-0.34% |
|
5-5 |
1.00% |
-1.88% |
|
4-6 |
5.26% |
-5.79% |
|
3-7 |
16.73% |
-8.33% |
|
2-8 |
31.40% |
-1.02% |
|
1-9 |
31.94% |
+9.92% |
|
0-10 |
13.55% |
+7.48% |
