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UPDATE: ESPN's FPI projects Arkansas' last 5 games of 2021

Arkansas has lost three straight games after starting the 2021 season 4-0.
Arkansas has lost three straight games after starting the 2021 season 4-0. (Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports)

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A third straight loss not only dropped Arkansas out of the AP Poll, but also led to it slipping out of the top 25 in ESPN's Football Power Index.

Following a disappointing 38-23 loss to Auburn, the Razorbacks have dropped eight spots to No. 26 in the FPI and their game-by-game projections also took a hit.

Last week, they were favored to win five of their remaining six games - including against the Tigers - but now the Razorbacks are underdogs against LSU, in addition to Alabama.

Arkansas saw its odds of beating Mississippi State tick up a bit, but its chances of winning the Golden Boot fell significantly while its odds against Alabama and Missouri saw a small drop.

Winning 10 games in the regular season is officially off the table, plus it's extremely unlikely the Razorbacks win out to get to nine wins, as that has just a 2.2 percent chance of happening.

After a couple of weeks with 8-4 being the most likely outcome, Arkansas is now projected by the FPI to go 7-5. That specific record has a nearly 50/50 shot - 46.9 percent, to be exact - of happening.

Here is the complete breakdown...

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Game-by-Game Projections
Game FPI odds Change since last week

Oct. 23 - UAPB (Little Rock)

99.8%

0.0%

Nov. 6 - Mississippi State

70.8%

+1.8%

Nov. 13 - at LSU

45.5%

-12.2%

Nov. 20 - at Alabama

7.9%

-3.7%

Nov. 26 - Missouri

86.2%

-1.2%

Record Projections
Record Likelihood Change since last week

9-3

2.19%

-21.05%

8-4

29.40%

-10.71%

7-5

46.89%

+20.39%

6-6

19.46%

+12.32%

5-7

2.06%

+1.46%

4-8

0.0040%

+0.0028%

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