Will Arkansas be a top-8 national seed?
Entering the SEC Tournament, every Arkansas baseball fan is wondering whether or not the Razorbacks have done enough to earn a top-eight national seed.
That would ensure home field advantage through the super regionals, which is especially important given Arkansas’ struggles away from Baum Stadium this season.
National publications like D1Baseball.com and Baseball America seem to think the Razorbacks have it locked up, but some fans remain skeptical because of their poor road record.
Arkansas could end any doubt with a solid showing in Hoover, Ala., but the metrics used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee already favor the Razorbacks.
“If we win a game or two, it’s definitely going to help us,” head coach Dave Van Horn said. “I still think we have an opportunity to be a top-eight (seed).
“Our strength of schedule is not going down. It’s going to be a top four or two three. RPI, (with) the teams we play, it’s probably going to go up.”
According to D1Baseball.com, Arkansas is currently No. 4 in the RPI and has the No. 2 strength of schedule. Those rankings alone have the Razorbacks in a good spot.
Over the last 12 seasons, teams with a top-five RPI in addition to a top-eight strength of schedule have earned a top-eight national seed 20 of 21 times.
The only exception was Georgia Tech in 2009, which had a No. 4 RPI and No. 2 SOS. The Yellow Jackets had a 35-17-1 record and won only three of their final nine games that year.
Another argument against Arkansas is that the NCAA might not want to give the SEC four of the top-eight seeds and the Razorbacks would get left out because they lost their series against Florida, Ole Miss and Georgia – the other three teams in consideration.
However, four SEC teams received top-eight seeds just two years ago. To be fair, that season – 2016 – is a forgotten year for Arkansas fans because it is the only time since 2002 the Razorbacks failed to reach the postseason.
If the selection committee deems the Razorbacks worthy of a top-eight seed, it won’t exclude them simply because the other three teams are also deserving.
As the RPI and SOS rankings indicate, it appears Arkansas is definitely worthy. While the 4-11 conference road record is ugly, it is important to remember whom those games were against.
Three of the series were at the aforementioned national seed contenders – Florida, Ole Miss and Georgia – and the other two were against teams who play in stadiums ranked second and third behind Baum Stadium as the best in college baseball by Baseball America last month and that are traditionally difficult for opposing teams – LSU and Mississippi State.
The Razorbacks were also an incredible 14-1 at home in conference play, a mark achieved only twice before since the SEC went to 30-game conference slates in 1996. Sure, one of those series was against last-place Alabama, but the others were against Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina and Texas A&M. Those four teams have been ranked throughout the season and will make the NCAA Tournament.
In non-conference play, the Razorbacks swept a two-game series against Big 12 regular-season champion Texas, beat top-eight seed contender Texas Tech once, beat MVC regular-season champion Missouri State once, beat bubble team Arizona on a neutral field, beat MWC runner-up San Diego State on its home field and won two of three games against MAC regular-season champion Kent State.
All together, Arkansas is 15-6 against teams ranked in the top 25 of the RPI. That is tied with Florida for the most wins in that category and three ahead of the next closest team (Mississippi State, 12).
One more win at the SEC Tournament would likely seal it, but the Razorbacks are in good shape to land a top-eight national seed even if they are eliminated in two games.