FAYETTEVILLE — After falling to Alabama 24-21 on Saturday, Arkansas’ losing streak grew to five games. The underwhelming first half of the season for a team that had high expectations coming into 2023 is starting to get old, even to the players.
“We’ve all got the same mindset that enough is enough,” quarterback KJ Jefferson said after the Alabama game. “We’re tired of feeling this way. We’re tired of losing…we want to get back in the win column.
The Razorbacks don’t have the usual look of a 2-5 team. They clearly have the talent to play SEC heavyweights close – they lost by a exactly three points at LSU in Baton Rouge and against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, with numerous chances to win both games. Bad teams don’t just waltz into Death Valley and Bryant-Denny Stadium and almost pull off victories.
"My biggest concern is, is our team playing hard?," head coach Sam Pittman said Wednesday on the SEC Teleconference. "Do we still have the team? All those type things. Those are your biggest question marks, because if you play hard and you coach well, you’ve got a chance. It really doesn’t matter who you play, you’ve got a chance to go out there and win the game.
"My biggest concern in this whole stretch was can we keep the team? I believe we certainly have. I believe we’ve played and shown we certainly have. But the stretch itself, we knew it was going to be brutal. Going through that, we certainly came to the conclusion that it was."
It is clear that Arkansas has the pieces that it needs for success, it’s just a matter of putting them in the right places with better coaching, play-calling and execution. Add in a 38-31 loss to BYU and a 27-20 loss to Ole Miss, and four of the Hogs’ five losses are by one possession. This is part of a frustrating trend under Sam Pittman - Arkansas is just 5-13 in one-possession games since 2020.
“We’ve got to finish somehow, and we’re just not doing it,” Pittman said after the Alabama loss.
Beginning with their return home to face Mississippi State on Saturday, the Hogs have to get better at closing games out. The Razorbacks hold a 2-5 record with five games remaining. To reach six wins and bowl eligibility, Arkansas can only afford to lose one of those matchups down the stretch.
"I think a lot of winning is believing that you can," Pittman said Wednesday. "Obviously our kids believe in each other. I believe they believe in their coaches. Yeah, I think there is a fine line to the urgency of what needs to get done to keep some of your goals of the season alive versus panic.
"I don’t think anybody in the building has panicked, nor our team. I think our coaches have done an outstanding job with these kids and the kids have done an outstanding job as well. There is a big difference between panic and urgency, and I think we’re just an urgent team that’s hungry to win."
So what are the Hogs’ chances in each of their remaining games?
Oct. 21 - vs. Mississippi State
Simply put, this is a must-win game for the Hogs. They return to Razorback Stadium after four straight games away from home to face the Bulldogs, who are tied with Arkansas for last in the SEC West and winless in conference play. The status of star quarterback Will Rogers is also in doubt after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. If Rogers is out, the Bulldogs will turn to backup Mike Wright, a transfer from Vanderbilt.
"Have to win Saturday," Pittman said Monday. "Wen the season starts you have all these goals and there are still some that we have. Now, they may have been down here to get up here, but there are still some attainable goals that we have. And our kids know. I’m going to talk to them today about it. But this game Saturday is a big, big game for us."
Mississippi State is a tough and physical team, but is clearly in a rebuilding year under first-year head coach Zach Arnett. The Bulldogs were picked to finish last in the West by most media outlets, and the Hogs have a definite talent advantage. The SEC matchups only get harder from here, so this is a game Arkansas has to have.
Nov. 4 - at Florida
Coming off the bye week, the Hogs will travel to Gainesville to take on Florida in The Swamp. Billy Napier has faced a lot of criticism during his time in charge of the Gators, but they hold a respectable 5-2 record.
Florida has a physical defense that was able to hold Tennessee to just 16 points in a Week 3 win. The Gators also run the ball well, with their rushing attack ranking 5th in the SEC. Transfer quarterback Graham Mertz has exceeded expectations, leading the SEC in completion percentage (76.2%) and tossing 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions.
The Gators will be facing Arkansas a week after facing No. 1 Georgia, which could swing their morale one way or the other. Arkansas has the talent to come out with a win, but doing it in a hostile road environment will be tough given the Hogs’ struggles this year with penalties and offensive dry spells.
Nov. 11 - vs. Auburn
The hiring of Hugh Freeze in the offseason caused many eye-rolls throughout the SEC. Personal issues aside, Freeze is a brilliant offensive mind. Arkansas fans are familiar with his coaching abilities after his tenure at Ole Miss - and after he pulled off a 21-19 upset victory over the Razorbacks last year as the head coach at Liberty.
The Tigers have had a rough go of things this season in what many view as a rebuilding year. Quarterback play has been an issue, and the offense as a whole has been dismal, ranking dead last in the SEC in total offense.
In many ways, Auburn has been similar to Arkansas this season. A paltry offense held up by a solid defense that has kept them in games - even against the likes of Georgia, which the Tigers lost to, 27-20.
The two worst statistical offenses in the conference (right now) will square off in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair. The Razorbacks have home-field advantage and better quarterback play, but Hugh Freeze has out-coached Pittman before with much less talent at his disposal. This game could truly go either way.
Nov. 18 - vs. Florida International
There isn’t much analysis that needs to be done on this one. The Panthers are a Conference USA squad that currently has a losing record. The Hogs should win this cupcake matchup, and anything less than that would be disappointing for the team and frustrating for fans.
Nov. 24 - vs. Missouri
Missouri has been an opponent that Arkansas hasn’t been able to get a hold of in recent years. Since the Tigers joined the SEC, the Hogs have managed just two wins in nine meetings.
Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz’s squad is off to a hot start to the season, as they opened up with a 6-1 record and they are currently ranked 20th in the AP Poll. The second half of their schedule is much tougher, but the Tigers look the part of a good team so far.
Junior quarterback Brady Cook has been incredibly efficient and he owns the SEC record for most consecutive pass attempts without an interception in a streak that dated back to last season but was ended two weeks ago in a loss to LSU. Sophomore wideout Luther Burden III has been living up to his five-star rating, as he's averaging 115 receiving yards per game.
A three-game stretch against Georgia, Tennessee and Florida will reveal a lot about how good Missouri really is, but the fact is that the Tigers have had Arkansas’ number in the last decade. There’s a strong possibility that the Hogs will enter this game with a 5-6 record, needing a win for bowl eligibility. That would make this a season-defining matchup for the Razorbacks with huge ramifications for Sam Pittman’s tenure at Arkansas.
Analysis
Arkansas’ remaining games can be divided into two categories. Mississippi State and FIU are “must-win” games, and the other three are toss-up games that could go either way and will likely have one-possession spreads. Assuming victories against the Bulldogs and Panthers, the Hogs will have to beat at least two of the following: Florida, Auburn or Missouri.
Given the Razorbacks’ struggles with finishing out games, fans have to be hesitant to feel good about this stretch. To reach bowl eligibility for a fourth straight season, the Hogs will have to come out on top in some close games.
Should the Razorbacks reach the 6-win mark? Absolutely. Will they? That remains to be seen.
Arkansas (2-5, 0-4) will face off against Mississippi State (3-3, 0-3) at Reynolds Razorback Stadium on Saturday, with kickoff set for 11 a.m. CT on ESPN.
