Comparing Hagen Smith and Paul Skenes through 12 starts
The phrase "best season for a college baseball pitcher ever" has been tossed around more than once over the past four seasons for three pitchers from two different schools. Two of those pitchers are Arkansas' Kevin Kopps and Hagen Smith, while the other is LSU's Paul Skenes.
As Razorback baseball fans know well, Kopps won the 2021 Golden Spikes Award after posting a 0.90 ERA in 89.2 innings pitched with a 12-1 record, 11 saves, 18 walks and 131 strikeouts. He also added a 0.76 WHIP in a season that some consider to be the most dominant ever by a college relief pitcher.
Skenes transferred to the Tigers from Air Force prior to the 2023 season and he dazzled as a workhorse week after week pumping in consistent triple digits. The 2023 Dick Howser Trophy winner, Skenes had a 13-2 record with a 1.69 ERA in 122.2 innings. He recorded just 20 walks compared to a whopping 209 strikeouts and limited opponents to a .165 batting average to make himself the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.
Just one season removed from Skenes being a generational prospect, again it is Dave Van Horn's Arkansas Razorbacks with a dominant arm — junior lefty Hagen Smith.
The national leader in strikeouts per nine innings (16.65), Smith is given a side-by-side comparison to Skenes' 2023 season on the television broadcast just about every week now.
The numbers are more comparable than you might think.
The above graphic from the SEC Network broadcast of Arkansas 2-1 win over Florida on April 26 shows the comparison between Skenes' 2023 season and Smith's 2024 season through 10 starts. With 6.1 more innings pitched, Skenes' numbers aside from ERA are all a little better than Smith's, including average fastball velocity.
Smith's velo from the left side isn't what Skenes was doing in 2023. The big right-handed transfer from Air Force was regularly touching triple digits, which Smith can do, but much less often.
"He’s really good," LSU head coach Jay Johnson said of Smith on March 28. "He’s one of the best pitchers I’ve ever faced in my entire career."
For a more accurate comparison of the two, HawgBeat has broken down Skene's 2023 campaign and Smith's 2024 season through 12 starts following a 14-strikeout performance at No. 8 Kentucky on Friday.
A 'coach's dream': Hagen Smith pumps gas in 14-strikeout game
| Stat | Paul Skenes (2023) | Hagen Smith (2024) |
|---|---|---|
|
Innings Pitched |
72.2 |
66.0 |
|
ERA |
1.73 |
1.36 |
|
WHIP |
0.76 |
0.82 |
|
Walks |
13 |
25 |
|
Strikeouts |
139 |
125 |
|
Hits allowed |
42 |
29 |
|
Runs allowed |
16 |
11 |
|
Earned runs allowed |
13 |
10 |
|
Home runs allowed |
4 |
4 |
|
Hit batters |
1 |
5 |
|
Wild pitches |
4 |
1 |
It's also worth noting that Skenes threw 100-plus pitches in eight of his first 12 starts, while Arkansas has put a little less on Smith's plate, as he's done so just three times in that span this season, including Friday's 14-strikeout performance by him.
Skenes finished No. 1 in the nation in strikeouts (209), No. 1 in strikeouts per nine innings (15.33) and No. 1 in WHIP (0.75), and he finished No. 2 in the nation in ERA (1.69), No. 3 in strikeout-to-walk ratio (10.45), and No. 5 in hits allowed per nine innings (5.28).
Smith currently ranks third in strikeouts (125), first in strikeouts per nine innings (17.05), second in WHIP (0.82), first in ERA (1.36) and first in hits allowed per nine innings (3.95).
"His average fastball was 98," South Carolina head coach Mark Kingston said after facing Smith on April 19. "He threw a slider for strikes all night, and that’s why he’s going to be the first pitcher off the board for the Major League draft. He’s done that to everybody this year, and we were no different.”
Arkansas is 12-0 in games that Smith has started this season, and the Hogs are 31-7 overall in games started by Smith in his career. He now has 324 career strikeouts — 21 shy of Nick Schmidt's program record 345 — plus he's now tied with Isaiah Campbell for the sixth-most strikeouts in a season (125) in program history. David Walling's 155 strikeouts in 1999 ranks first.
While Smith still has two more weekends in the regular season and the entire postseason to go, it's definitely fair to say he's keeping pace with Skenes through 12 starts. LSU won the national championship with Skenes leading the way in 2023 as well, so Hog fans can only hope that is another trend going for their team.