Arkansas (10-8, 1-4 SEC) has lost four of its last five games and is completely removed from any projected NCAA Tournament fields as a result.
While the product on the court has been ugly and the start has been just plain bad, there still might be a chance for the Razorbacks and head coach Eric Musselman to make the NCAA Tournament field as an at-large team.
Granted, there is always the chance Arkansas wins the SEC Tournament championship to get the automatic bid, but that has only happened once in program history, when true freshman Joe Johnson carried that team to a conference tournament title in 2000. Without eliminating that possibility, the likelihood is slim.
So, let's get down to the nitty gritty: can this team earn an at-large bid even after this bad start? The short answer is yes.
Arkansas has a great deal of tough matchups moving forward. As of today, the Razorbacks have seven Quadrant 1 games remaining on the schedule, two Quadrant 2 matchups and four games in the bottom two quadrants.
Of those seven top quadrant games, four of them are currently Quadrant 1A matchups, which is just an even more impressive type of win with heightened criteria.
Currently, the Razorbacks have just one Quadrant 1 win, with most of their losses coming in the top two quadrants, as well. So, theoretically, Arkansas should not be in a terrible position, right?
Fans unfamiliar with the NCAA Tournament selection process might think so, and rightfully so. If they were to just look at the NET, it would show that Arkansas has one very strong win against Duke and only one bad loss against UNC Greensboro.
While that is true, there are a great deal of other factors that go into determining NET, as well as other data points that aren't related to NET at all that the selection committee uses in its formula, such as efficiency metrics from KenPom, the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) and more.
Looking at a snapshot of Arkansas' NET and quadrant profile right this second, at face value it appears there is still a path to an at-large bid.
With these results, plus the actual product on the floor, Arkansas is No. 118 in the NET currently. The lowest NET ranking to earn an at-large bid was Rutgers in 2022 with a No. 77 NET.
I mentioned other metrics, as well, like efficiency and resume numbers, which also factor into the selection committees determination. The worst resume average, which is the average of a team's strength of record (SOR) and KPI, to earn an at-large bid was 57.5 from that same Rutgers team.
Currently, Arkansas needs to move up 41 spots in the NET to match the worst at-large NET team. The Razorbacks also currently have a resume average of just 89.0, meaning the average has to increase by 31.5 to match the worst at-large team, as well.
So, what does all this mean for Arkansas? Clearly the Razorbacks have a lot of work to do, but is it possible for them to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team? Yes. That's not just saying "sure, if they win all their games they'll be in!" There is a realistic path to that goal, and here is the road map:
The absolute first thing Arkansas has to do is beat Ole Miss. Without a win in Oxford, the team's at-large hopes are likely dead and buried. From there, holding home court against Kentucky would be a huge boost to a drowning tournament resume. Back-to-back road wins following a 2-0 week against ranked opponents would have the Razorbacks on a four-game winning streak and sitting at 14-8 (5-4).
There would still be work to do, and even losing to Kentucky, if it's a close game especially, would not kill the at-large hopes.
Arkansas has three top priorities: (1) hold home court, (2) win the winnable road games and (3) don't drop a bad loss. A bad loss would be one of the bottom two Quadrant games remaining. Adding another Quad 3 or Quad 4 game would destroy any chance of making the tournament as an at-large team.
Only two of the Quad 1 games remaining will be home games — Kentucky and Tennessee. It would be a huge boost if the Razorbacks found a way to win both, but they also need to pick up some road wins.
Arkansas is currently just 1-3 on a neutral court and 0-2 on the road. The selection committee does factor in road and neutral performance, as well, so any road wins are good wins.
Is the path above difficult? Yes. Is it doable? Also yes. I'd argue it's even realistic, especially if this team magically turns a corner as Arkansas teams under Musselman have done in years past.
All hope is not lost, but Arkansas' at-large bid hopes in the NCAA Tournament are on life support. The first chance to move in the right direction will be Wednesday at 8 p.m. CT, when the Hogs will face Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi.
