Kentucky baseball preview
Here's a preview of Kentucky baseball entering the 2021 season.
2020 record/RPI: 11-6 (88)
2019 record/RPI: 26-29, 7-23 SEC (13)
Coach: Nick Mingione (5th season at Kentucky, 114-80)
Rank in preseason polls: Not ranked
Rank in conference forecasts: 6th in Eastern Division (D1), 7th in East (coaches)
Last NCAA tournament appearance: 2017 (NCAA Super Regional)
Home field: Kentucky Proud Park (5,000)
Left: 335, Left-Center: 375, Center: 400, Right-Center: 365, Right: 320
2020 review / 2021 outlook
Kentucky is trying to rediscover the magic it had during Nick Mingione's first year with the program when the Wildcats challenged for the SEC championship and advanced to the 2017 NCAA Super Regionals. UK is coming off two years (2018 and 2019) that fell short of expectations and a frustrating 2020 which ended prematurely just before a measuring-stick type series against defending national champion Vanderbilt due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
There is reason for optimism, however, entering 2021.
Kentucky should feature one of the better offensive clubs in the SEC this season. The Cats return eight of the nine players from last year's typical starting lineup, including a budding superstar in national co-freshman of the year John Rhodes (.426 BA in 2020), sweet-swinging Austin Schultz (.393 BA, 3rd in SEC in total bases), and one of college baseball's top power hitters in grad senior T.J. Collett (26 career HR). This team should have no problems putting runs on the board.
The big question marks are in the other two phases of the game: pitching and defense.
UK has ranked near the bottom of the SEC in both categories for the last two years, prompting Mingione to bring in a new pitching coach, Dan Roszel (11 MLB pitchers on resume, including Chris Sale), and place a higher emphasis on recruiting elite-level defenders like juco shortstop Ryan Ritter and juco catcher Alonzo Rubalcaba in the Cats' latest Top 25 class.
The pitching staff is deep with a lot of veteran arms that have pitched in big games for UK, but it currently lacks a clear-cut ace. Senior left-hander Mason Hazelwood (1.64 ERA in four 2020 starts) could emerge as that guy.
Freshman right-hander Ryan Hagenow is another name to watch. He is the program's highest-rated signee (No. 8 RHP in the nation; No. 26 overall prospect) since former standout Alex Meyer.
Three transfers -- Sean Harney (UMass), Holt Jones (Clemson), and Zach Kammin (Coe College) -- have been described as "impact" arms for the Cats.
Senior right-hander Jimmy Ramsey (3.26 ERA in four 2020 starts) moves from the rotation in hopes of bolstering the bullpen in 2021.
| Pos. | Player, Cl. (B/T) |
|---|---|
|
C |
Alonzo Rubalcaba, Jr. (R/R) .270 BA, .806 OPS, 63 AB, 1 HR, 22 RBI Billed as an elite defensive catcher, threw out 46% SBA in 2020 |
|
1B |
T.J. Collett, Gr-SR (L/R) .290 BA, .931 OPS, 69 AB, 5 HR, 17 RBI Ranks 9th among active DI players with 26 career HR. |
|
2B |
Zeke Lewis, Gr-Sr. (S/R) .378 BA, 37 AB, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB 24-year-old veteran taking advantage of NCAA rule for 6th year |
|
3B |
Chase Estep, S0. (L/R) .324 BA, 34 AB, 1 HR, 8 RBI Could battle or platoon with juco Jacob Plastiak for hot corner. |
|
SS |
Ryan Ritter, So. (R/R) .342 BA, .905 OPS, 79 AB, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 10 SB Mingione says could be top defensive SS he has ever coached |
|
LF |
Austin Schultz, Jr. (R/R) .393 BA, 1.233 OPS, 61 AB, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB Moving from INF to OF; ranked 3rd in SEC in total bases (46) |
|
CF |
Jaren Shelby, Gr-Sr. (R/R) .260 BA, .375 OBP, 50 AB, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 SB A lot of tools for legacy player looking to bounce back in 2021 |
|
RF |
John Rhodes, So. (R/R) .426 BA, 1.157 OPS, 61 AB, 10 2B, 1 HR Preseason All-American and potential first-round MLB pick |
|
DH |
Oraj Anu, SR, (S/R) .294 BA, .917 OPS, 51 AB, 3 HR, 10 RBI Two-time MLB draft pick; son of track star mom, football dad |
|
Res |
Cam Hill, Jr. (L/R) .250 BA, 12 AB, 0 HR, 2 RBI OF reserve coming off strong fall, impressive buzz this spring |
|
Res |
Coltyn Kessler, Sr. (L/R) .089 BA, 45 AB, 0 HR, 6 RBI C/DH struggled in 2020 but hit .297 with 5 HR in 2019 |
|
Res |
Trae Harmon, Jr. (R/R) .242 BA, .636 SLG, 33 AB, 4 HR, 9 RBI 6-foot-4, 245-pound 1B/DH with a lot of pop |
There's a lot to like about Kentucky's hitting potential in 2021. The Cats have three potential All-SEC/All-American bats in the form of right fielder John Rhodes, left fielder Austin Schultz, and first baseman T.J. Collett, which is a great starting point for any offensive attack.
Designated hitter Oraj Anu and centerfielder Jaren Shelby have flashed strong potential in the past and could be due for breakout seasons. Newcomer Ryan Ritter is hailed as an elite defensive shortstop but also swung a potent bat at the juco level. If he can hit SEC pitching, it only bolsters what could be one of the best lineups in the league.
Newcomer Alonzo Rubalcaba was signed to be a great handler of the pitching staff first and foremost, but the juco transfer catcher has also displayed some good skills with the bat.
The two question marks for the Cats appear to be second base and third base.
Sixth-year senior Zeke Lewis is expected to get the nod at second, and he brings some good speed and "small-ball" abilities to the lineup but has never hit with much pop.
Third base figures to be a competition between Chase Estep and JUCO Jacob Plastiak. Estep batted .324 in limited action last season but has yet to prove himself against SEC arms. Plastiak was a Top 50 juco prospect who offers power potential from both sides of the plate as a switch hitter.
Developing some bench depth will be a focus of the non-conference schedule.
Kentucky was one of the least efficient baserunning teams in the SEC last year, running themselves out of several innings with over-aggressive decisions. That will need to improve in 2021 to take advantage of a lineup full of capable bats. The Cats also had one of the lowest success rates (73%) in stolen bases with 25 bags swiped in 34 attempts.
| Role | Player, Cl. (B/T) |
|---|---|
|
SP1 |
Mason Hazelwood, Sr. (L/L) 2-1, 1.64 ERA, 22 IP, 27 K, 7 BB Blossomed as JR with deceptive delivery that hides ball well |
|
SP2 |
Zach Kammin, Gr-Sr. (R/R) 1-0, 0.82 ERA, 11 IP, 20 K, 6 BB Four-pitch arsenal with fastball touching 95 mph |
|
SP3 |
Zack Lee, So. (R/R) 1-1, 9.35 ERA, 8.2 IP, 9 K, 3 BB Ace-type stuff with mid-90s sinking fastball, hard slider |
|
Cl |
Sean Harney, Sr. (R/R) 1-2-0, 4.50 ERA, 16 IP, 12 K, 8 BB UMass transfer has 3.49 career ERA; 94 mph fastball, big curve |
|
Rel |
Jimmy Ramsey, Sr. (L/R) 2-2, 3.26 ERA, 19.1 IP, 20 K, 12 BB Imposing 6-foot-9 righty moving back to bullpen in 2021 |
|
Rel |
Alex Degen, Jr. (R/R) 0-0, 2.51 ERA, 14.1 IP, 19 K, 4 BB Lanky 6-foot-8 righty touches 94 mph with command of 4 pitches |
|
Rel |
Hunter Rigsby, Jr. (L/R) 0-0, 3.48 ERA, 10.1 IP, 15 K, 3 BB Potential closer candidate with power fastball |
|
Rel |
Ryan Hagenow, Fr. (R/R) Potential starter; PG #26 prospect in America for 2021 |
|
Rel |
Wyatt Hudepohl, Fr. (R/R) 6-foot-4 righty has biggest arm on the staff, touching 97 mph |
The pitching staff is the most intriguing question for Kentucky this season. It will likely determine just how far the Cats are able to advance.
UK has a lot of good arms back from 2020, but the Covid-19 pandemic meant that none of them were truly tested by the SEC before the season was shut down. That, and the addition of several newcomers, leads to a number of questions:
Is senior lefty Mason Hazelwood ready to be a weekend ace?
Will Zach Kammin live up to his preseason hype coming out of D3 Coe College? The coaching staff loves his makeup, and he's 12-1 during his collegiate career.
Can Jimmy Ramsey's move from the rotation back to the bullpen help solidify some of the Cats' late-inning issues?
Can UMass transfer Sean Harvey handle the closer duties?
How quickly can elite signee Ryan Hagenow become an impact player as a true freshman? Will he eventually work his way into the weekend rotation or see his primary role as a midweek starter?
What impact will new pitching coach Dan Roszel have? One of the big reasons Nick Mingione made a coaching change at that spot is he wants his pitchers working faster and pounding the strike zone. Both were issues for the Cats the last two years as walks and slow pace seemed to also affect UK's defense.
It's all a mystery at this point. Optimism reigns supreme with Mingione, and if he gets the kind of pitching he thinks he will in 2021, the Cats could be back in the NCAA tournament hunt.