Statistical Outlook: Predicting how the Hogs will perform this season Pt. 2
In part one of predicting how the Hogs will perform this season, I analyzed player stats and performances from previous schools, performances as a Razorback, and even looked at the freshmen’s performance from their high school and travel teams. Combining that raw data with what I’ve heard out of practice, I’ve come up with the following predictions:
| Stats 2019 | Stats 2020 | Stats 2021 | Predicted 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FG% |
44.30% |
45.10% |
43.40% |
45.12% |
|
3P% |
33.40% |
33.20% |
30.40% |
32.38% |
|
FT% |
73.10% |
74.00% |
76.00% |
72.42% |
|
FGA |
57 |
64.7 |
60.6 |
65 |
|
3PA |
22.8 |
21.9 |
20.7 |
19.1 |
|
FTA |
24.3 |
21.2 |
22.5 |
25.1 |
|
REB |
31.6 |
39.7 |
37.8 |
41.2 |
|
Oreb |
7.5 |
11.8 |
10.8 |
12.5 |
|
Dreb |
24.1 |
27.9 |
27 |
28.7 |
|
Margin |
-6.7 |
3.9 |
2.9 |
N/A |
|
Assists |
11.9 |
14.6 |
13.8 |
16.4 |
|
Turnovers |
11.5 |
12.9 |
12.2 |
13.2 |
|
Forced |
16 |
15.1 |
14.8 |
16.5 |
|
Blocks |
3.9 |
4.9 |
4.1 |
6.9 |
|
Total Points |
75.8 |
81.4 |
75.9 |
81.16 |
|
Points Allowed |
69.2 |
70.8 |
68.3 |
N/A |
|
Margin |
6.2 |
10.6 |
7.6 |
N/A |
A great deal of effort, research, and formulations led to these predicted team stats for the year. The formulas seem to confirm some of my expectations about this team: they might not be as great at shooting free throws and their three-point percentage is still pretty low, but they make up for it defensively and on controlling the glass.
Some numbers tracked pretty closely to that first Elite Eight team, particularly field goal percentage, field goal attempts, rebounds, and total points. All things considered, those are pretty important statistics to mimic from a successful team, but where the statistics differentiate also tells an important story.
From the formulas, it appears that this year’s team will have the lowest free throw percentage of any Musselman-led Razorback squad, but the attempts will be at a new high. The points the team earns from the charity stripe should remain one of the tops in the country, and if that 25.1 figure for attempts per game comes true, the team would come close to breaking the program record for most free throw attempts in a season. That record is 975 attempts from the 1990-1991 season, where the Razorbacks shot 25.7 free throws per game.
Additionally, assists and turnovers would both be at a four-year high under Musselman. The assists would be the result of an open system with multiple facilitating guards and plenty of athletic slashers and rim runners capitalizing on great passes. The turnovers would come from ball-dominant freshmen and some shaky ball-handling and decision-making at some of the wing and post spots. Regardless, 13.2 turnovers isn’t a massive jump from the 12.9 that the 2021 team had, but the 16.4 assists would more than make up for a slight bump in turnovers.
When I went through and started building these formulas and compiling data and research, I decided I didn’t want to stop with just the team stats. So I built out more formulas and (almost) the entire roster’s average stat line:
*Disclaimer: There are more than 200 minutes per game allocated because not every player will play in every game. This was based on the sports-reference model, and I determined the minutes based on trends, anticipated rotation, and past use of reserve players.*
Players listed in order of minutes per game. This is not in order of rotation or starters.
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