Arkansas busted thousands of brackets — if they weren’t already busted — Thursday night when it upset the No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga 74-68. The Razorbacks were in control the entire second half as they secured a spot in their second straight Elite Eight.
Immediately following that game, Texas Tech and Duke faced off with the winner advancing to play Arkansas in the West Regional final. The Blue Devils edged the Red Raiders 78-73, setting the stage for the first Arkansas-Duke matchup since the 1994 national championship.
Here are some things to know about Duke…
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Young Talent
While Duke was later to the party than other programs in utilizing one-and-done players as the core of its team, the Blue Devils have navigated those waters and remained a prominent player in the national basketball scene. This season, Duke has just one junior in its main rotation, with two sophomores and three freshmen making up the remainder of their six-man group.
Two seniors do hold the seventh and eighth spots in the lineup, but they each play fewer than 12 minutes per game. Sophomore center Mark Williams plays the fewest minutes out of the first six guys with 23.5 minutes per game.
Theo John, one of the two aforementioned seniors, played just 10 minutes against Texas Tech, while the other, Joey Baker, has appeared in only the Cal State-Fullerton matchup for 5 minutes. Duke has stuck to a strict six-man rotation in the NCAA Tournament, relying heavily on their young stars.
Freshman standouts Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin are averaging over 36 minutes per game in the NCAA Tournament, while sophomores Jeremy Roach and Mark Williams are hovering just under 31 minutes per game.
That is a ton of weight on young shoulders. Arkansas’ average age is nearly two years older than the Blue Devils’ group.
Rebounding
On the whole, Arkansas and Duke post similar rebounding numbers. The only major difference between the two programs on the boards is the fact that the Blue Devils allow over 11 offensive rebounds per game, ranking 308th in the country. Arkansas averages right at 11 offensive rebounds per game, tracking right at the same pace that Duke allows.
Arkansas is averaging only six offensive rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament, though, with a high of 10 against Gonzaga. Duke, on the other hand, is allowing 12 offensive rebounds per game in the Tournament, giving up exactly 12 in each contest.
Considering the Razorbacks are 18-4 when they haul in more offensive rebounds than their opponent, it should be a point of emphasis for Arkansas to exploit against Duke. Two of those losses were in the first half of the season against Oklahoma and Texas A&M. The other two losses came during Arkansas’ hot streak down the stretch of the season, but were narrow road losses to Alabama and Tennessee.
Free throws… Again
Free throws are a crucial aspect of any matchup in every basketball game, but especially so for a team like Arkansas that scores a chunk of its points at the line. I noted that Gonzaga did not allow teams to get to the free throw line much this year, and despite allowing more FTAs in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga held Arkansas to just 14 attempts from the line. That was even after the Bulldogs started fouling late to stop the clock and try to mount a comeback.
Duke allows even fewer free throw attempts per game, ranking second in the country allowing just 11.7 attempts per game. The Blue Devils been even stronger at defending without fouling in the NCAA Tournament, allowing opponents a modest 9.6 free throw attempts per game.
Arkansas has to find a way to get to the glass more against Duke than it did against Gonzaga. Attacking the rim and being in control will go a long way toward getting Duke’s bigs in foul trouble, and putting the Hogs on the free throw line, where they shoot 75.7% on the season and 78.0% since their season-changing win on the road at LSU.
Lights Out
Similar to Gonzaga, Duke is a deadly shooting team, boasting the country’s fourth-highest field goal percentage at 49.2% while also shooting 37.0% from three and 73.8% from the free throw line.
The Blue Devils’ shooting performances in the NCAA Tournament have been even better than their season averages, which means Arkansas will have a tall task stopping them from scoring.
Against Texas Tech, Duke posted a 51.9% field goal percentage, 36.8% three-point percentage, and 88.2% from the charity stripe. Additionally, they posted splits of 57/39/76 against Michigan State and 52/41/100 against Cal State-Fullerton.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has not shot the ball well in the tournament, or even over the course of the entire season, but it has defended well. The Razorbacks held Gonzaga to just 37.5% from the field, 23.8% from three. New Mexico State posted a split of 34/23/60 against the Razorbacks, while the Vermont Catamounts put up 45/38/59.
First meeting in 28 years
The meeting with Duke on Saturday will be Arkansas’ fourth all-time against the Blue Devils. The Razorbacks currently hold a 2-1 series record lead, but the series is tied 1-1 in the NCAA Tournament.
In their first postseason matchup, Duke prevailed in the 1990 Final Four before falling to UNLV in the championship game. The second matchup came just four years later, as Arkansas defeated the Blue Devils 76-72 to win their first and only national championship. Between those two games, the two programs faced off in the 1990 Preseason NIT, where the Razorbacks won 98-88.
In his final season, Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski is looking to add yet another Final Four to his historic resume. He has the chance to do that against a program that took a national championship away from him. Meanwhile, Arkansas equally has the opportunity to send Coach K into retirement with another postseason loss to a revived Arkansas Razorback basketball program.
