Analysis: Diamond Hogs survive 2021 MLB Draft with surplus of talent

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The 2021 MLB Draft is officially in the books and Arkansas has to feel good about how it came out of the three-day even in Denver.

Nine current Razorbacks and six signees were among the 612 players selected over the 20 rounds that concluded Tuesday afternoon, but that was to be expected coming off a season in which they were ranked No. 1 all year and signed Perfect Game’s No. 3 overall recruiting class.

Rather, the biggest takeaway was who didn’t hear their name called, as three draft-eligible starting position players and six of Arkansas’ 11 top-150 signees went undrafted.

Top signee Peyton Stovall, a middle infielder from Louisiana, announced early on Day 2 of the draft that he was pulling his name out and attending Arkansas. He and fellow top-50 recruit Max Muncy were considered potential first-round picks, but no MLB team was willing to meet Stovall’s asking price to skip college, while Muncy went to the Athletics with the 25th overall pick.

The Razorbacks’ infield was further bolstered a few hours later when starting first baseman Brady Slavens made a similar announcement. It was a move head coach Dave Van Horn lobbied for after the season and one that could benefit the slugger, as he’s just 20 years old and has two years of eligibility remaining. That means Slavens would still have leverage in next summer’s draft.

As the rounds ticked by, it became more and more clear that shortstop Jalen Battles would not get drafted despite Van Horn’s prediction that he’d go in the first five rounds. He could have signed a free agent deal with a maximum signing bonus of $20,000, but he has since announced he’ll return in 2022.

Throw in All-SEC second baseman Robert Moore, who was not eligible for the draft, and the Razorbacks are returning three of their four starting infielders from this season. That leaves just one available spot for returner Jacob Nesbit, Stovall, who is projected as a second baseman at the next level because he doesn’t have a strong arm, and fellow top-100 recruit Drake Varnado.

A high school All-American like Stovall, Varnado announced Tuesday afternoon his intentions of playing at Arkansas. That didn’t stop the Diamondbacks from drafting him in the 17th round about an hour later.

It seems like he’s set on going to college, but the IMG Academy product has until Aug. 1 - the signing deadline - to change his mind. Of the six signees who got drafted, Varnado is probably the most likely to turn down the pros. On top of his announcement, he’s already on campus and taking summer classes.

The infield also includes top-150 signee Kendall Diggs, a third baseman from the Kansas City area, and a pair of JUCO second basemen in Brenden Dixon and Zac Vooletich. However, Dixon - who began his career at Texas - was picked by the Pirates in the 20th round and could move on, plus Vooletich played multiple positions, including catcher, in junior college.

Pinch-hit extraordinaire Charlie Welch has been working on learning first base as a position and Van Horn previously said he expects him to return, but the Mariners scooped him up in the 19th round. He could still choose to come back to school or he may opt to sign with Seattle.

Although less surprising than Battles, senior Matt Goodheart also went undrafted. Van Horn had previously said the Magnolia native would like to return for his extra year of eligibility if he didn’t sign a professional contract.

With the influx of talent in Arkansas’ signing class, which comes from the high school ranks, junior college level and transfer portal, Goodheart now has to weigh competing for playing time on a loaded roster littered with top-150 recruits against signing as an undrafted free agent.

Primarily a designated hitter during his time in Fayetteville, Goodheart played in the outfield down the stretch this season, but it will likely be tough to stick out there in 2022.

The Razorbacks will have to replace Christian Franklin in center field after he was taken by the Cubs in the fourth round, but they could shift Freshman All-American Cayden Wallace over or former top-40 recruit Jace Bohrofen, a transfer from Oklahoma.

Arkansas also added talented JUCO transfer Landrey Wilkerson, a Van Buren native who is expected to compete for that third outfield spot, while returning Zack Gregory, Braydon Webb and Ethan Bates, as well. Gregory and Webb split time in left field for most of the season and Bates showed promise in limited action.

That doesn’t even factor in the possibility of adding Braylon Bishop, who was once considered a top-10 player in his class but slipped to the Pirates in the 14th round. Anything above a $125,000 signing bonus would count against Pittsburgh’s draft pool, so there’s a chance it isn’t able to meet his asking price.

The Texarkana standout sent - and then deleted - a tweet that said, “See you soon (Arkansas),” so that is definitely in play. He could also decide to play at a junior college instead, making him draft eligible again next year.

It is unlikely the Razorbacks will have to worry about Jordan Viars, another top-150 recruit, in the outfield after he was selected by the Phillies in the third round because he is expected to sign. Gabe D’Arcy, an outfielder from California who was considered a fringe draft prospect as the No. 204 overall recruit, did not get drafted, though.

There will likely be competition behind the plate after catcher Casey Opitz went to the Cubs in the eighth round. Dylan Leach, who skipped his senior year of high school to be Opitz’s backup last year, will have to hold off Michael Turner, a graduate transfer from Kent State. Turner is also capable of playing a corner infield spot.

In addition to Vooletich, top-150 signee Max Soliz Jr. is listed as a catcher, too. He’s told HawgBeat in the past that he’d like to stick at that position, but he may be better suited for first base in the future. If he chooses to return to school. Welch could also catch for Arkansas in a pinch.

The Razorbacks came out of the draft even better on the mound.

National Player of the Year Kevin Kopps was the first Arkansas player off the board, going to the Padres in the third round, but he was not expected to return. There was an outside chance of Ryan Costeiu coming back considering his age, but that likely won’t happen after the Angels grabbed him in the seventh round.

Even though they slipped further than expected, left-handers Patrick Wicklander (Rays, 8th round) and Caden Monke (Royals, 14th round) were also drafted. Both will probably sign professional deals, but Monke could potentially decide to return.

The Dodgers took Lael Lockhart in the ninth round as a money-saving pick, which doesn’t change anything for Arkansas because he has exhausted his eligibility. The most surprising pick was Elijah Trest going to the Rockies in the 19th round, as his playing time dwindled down the stretch. He’d be a bounce-back candidate for 2022, but such an out-of-nowhere pick seems to indicate Trest and Colorado likely had something worked out ahead of time.

Those are obviously significant losses. Including Caleb Bolden, who is transferring out of the program, and assuming all of them sign, the Razorbacks are losing nearly two-thirds of their innings from the 2021 season.

Luckily for them, only one of their touted signees - left-hander Drew Gray (Cubs, 3rd round), who is also an outfielder - was drafted. That means a trio of top-150 recruits - left-hander Hagen Smith (No. 71) and right-handers Brady Tygart (No. 73) and Vincent Trapani (No. 128) - will presumably make it to campus.

Nick Moten and Jake Faherty are inside Perfect Game’s ranking of the top 500 recruits, as well, with the former considered a top-300 draft prospect by some and the latter reportedly already touching 99 mph. That list doesn’t even include two-way signee Austin Ledbetter, who is one of the most successful high school quarterbacks in Arkansas history.

Van Horn didn’t mention any of them by name, but said during his end-of-season press conference that he expected two or three freshman pitchers to contribute immediately. They’ll join a staff that does return a few key pieces.

Most notably, it sounds like right-hander Peyton Pallette will avoid Tommy John surgery and be available in 2022. Right-hander Jaxon Wiggins could move into the rotation, as he’s having a strong summer with Team USA. Both of them have been discussed as potential first-round talents.

It’s also worth noting that the Razorbacks made it through the draft without right-handers Zebulon Vermillion and Connor Noland unexpectedly getting selected. Among the many other arms are right-hander Heston Tole, who came on strong down the stretch, and left-hander Nick Griffin, a former top-100 recruit coming back from Tommy John.

Arkansas will certainly have no shortage of talent after surviving the 2021 MLB Draft, but it does create a tricky problem for Van Horn.

Assuming all players and signees who were drafted actually sign professional contracts, with the exception of Bishop and Varnado, the Razorbacks are currently sitting at 52 players for the 2022 season - and there’s still a chance they add more from the portal.

That will have to be trimmed to 40 by next spring, which means Van Horn will have to make tough decisions on which players to keep and some players may decide on their own to move on.

Here’s a look at the roster as of July 13…

Position Players (24)

Ethan Bates - INF/OF
Jalen Battles - INF
*Braylon Bishop - OF
*Jace Bohrofen - OF
*Gabe D’Arcy - OF
*Kendall Diggs - INF
Matt Goodheart - 1B/OF
Zack Gregory - OF
*Cameron Leach - OF
Dylan Leach - C
*Reece McWilliams - INF
Robert Moore - INF
Jacob Nesbit - INF
*Jade Putz - INF
Brady Slavens - INF
*Max Soliz Jr. - C
*Peyton Stovall - INF
*Michael Turner - C/INF
*Drake Varnado - INF
*Zac Vooletich - INF/C
Cayden Wallace - INF/OF
Braydon Webb - OF
Zac White - INF/OF
*Landrey Wilkerson - OF

Pitchers (28)

Mark Adamiak - RHP
Issac Bracken - RHP
Tyler Cacciatori - RHP
*Dylan Carter - RHP
*Jake Faherty - RHP
Evan Gray - RHP
Nick Griffin - LHP
*Austin Ledbetter - RHP (also 3B)
Matthew Magre - LHP
Will McEntire - RHP
*Isaac Mitchell - LHP
Zack Morris - LHP
*Nick Moten - RHP
Connor Noland - RHP
Peyton Pallette - RHP
Miller Pleimann - RHP
Kole Ramage - RHP
Nathan Rintz - RHP
*Hagen Smith - LHP
Corey Spain - LHP
Louis Stallone - RHP
Gabriel Starks - RHP
Evan Taylor - LHP
Heston Tole - RHP
*Vincent Trapani - RHP
*Brady Tygart - RHP
Zebulon Vermillion - RHP
Jaxon Wiggins - RHP

*newcomer