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Analysis: Does Arkansas have enough pitching to win it all?

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Arkansas has struggled on the mound at times in 2021, but does it have enough pitching to win it all?
Arkansas has struggled on the mound at times in 2021, but does it have enough pitching to win it all? (SEC Media Portal)

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Despite being the unanimous No. 1 team in college baseball for most of the season and not losing a single series, Arkansas has yet to completely iron out its pitching situation.

Heading into their final series of the regular season, the Razorbacks switched up their Game 2 starter and still have “TBA” listed for Game 3.

Head coach Dave Van Horn has used many different combinations on the weekend, but his starters have struggled to consistently give him even five innings, putting an increased workload on the bullpen.

The result has been a team ERA of 4.00 and fans wondering, “Does Arkansas have enough pitching to win a national championship?”

Considering trips to the College World Series have become almost common for the Razorbacks and they came agonizingly close to pulling it off in 2018, winning the first title in school history has become the primary focus for most of the fan base.

It’s easy to see why questions surrounding Arkansas’ pitching have caused some apprehension, then, despite all of the success the team has had so far.

The last time a team won the national championship with a team ERA of 4.00 or higher was 2009, when LSU did it with a 4.01 ERA.

However, that alone should not be discouraging. A deeper dive into the pitching numbers for previous champions paints a pretty clear formula for winning a title on the mound.

Here’s a look at Arkansas’ statistics in six key categories, those same statistics for the last 10 national champions and HawgBeat’s conclusion after digging into the data…

2021 Arkansas

ERA: 4.00 (43rd)

WHIP: 1.26 (21st)

H/9IP: 7.71 (25th)

K/9IP: 10.3 (24th)

BB/9IP: 3.65 (64th)

K/BB: 2.84 (31st)

2019 Vanderbilt

ERA: 3.72 (25th)

WHIP: 1.27 (20th)

H/9IP: 7.63 (15th)

K/9IP: 10.9 (3rd)

BB/9IP: 3.81 (82nd)

K/BB: 2.84 (10th)

A side-by-side comparison of 2021 Arkansas’ pitching statistics to 2019 Vanderbilt’s statistics shows that the two staffs aren’t too far apart in these six key categories.

Everyone remembers Kumar Rocker (12-5, 3.25 ERA) because he burst onto the scene as a true freshman and threw a no-hitter in the super regional, but the Commodores also had sixth-round pick Drake Fellows (13-2, 4.09 ERA) at the top of their rotation.

Mason Hickman (9-0, 2.05 ERA) dominated midweek games for Vanderbilt, eventually working his way into the rotation and replacing Patrick Raby (10-1, 3.08 ERA), who fell off late in the season. Out of the bullpen, Tyler Brown (2.19 ERA, 17 saves) and Jake Eder (2.97 ERA, 4 saves) were the top arms. Hickman, Brown and Eder eventually became top-five round picks in 2020.

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