People always say that the second game of the season is when the biggest jump in improvement occurs for teams. This wasn’t the case for Arkansas, but it was for the Kent State Golden Flashes — who challenged the Razorbacks’ offense in a 28-6 defeat Saturday in Fayetteville.
The ugliness of the game led to a second straight drop for the Hogs in one of ESPN’s top predictive metrics for college football.
After suffering a seven-point drop all the way down to No. 35 following a 56-13 victory in Week 1 over the Western Carolina Catamounts, Arkansas only dropped one spot to No. 36 in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) this week.
Against the Golden Flashes, the Hogs could never consistently piece plays together to sustain long drives. The Razorbacks’ defense had to score the first touchdown of the day off of an Antonio Grier 25-yard pick-six.
Head coach Sam Pittman’s squad now has a 6.6-5.4 projected win total with a 75.5% chance of obtaining six wins during the season. On top of that, Arkansas has just a 0.8% (0.1% increase from last week) chance of winning the SEC West and a 0.2% chance of the entire SEC, according to the FPI.
After two weeks of football, Arkansas remains the nation’s No. 40 most efficient team with a rating of 67.3, a slight drop from last week’s rating of 72.6, according to ESPN. This includes a 43.2 (No. 77) offensive rating, a significant drop from 62.4 (No. 46) last week.
The defensive rating increased, however, all the way up to 83.5 (No. 17) from 71.9 (No. 47). Special teams dropped from 58.2 (No. 57) in Week 1 to 41.3 (No. 87) following the game against Kent State.
Compared to the rest of the SEC, the Razorbacks come in at No. 10 (No. 11 last week) in the FPI just above Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri and Vanderbilt. The Hogs look better in the efficiency department, slotting in at No. 8 (No. 7 last week) in the SEC above Mississippi State, LSU, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
With two games played against poor competition, some concerns about Arkansas have been validated. The run game continues to struggle and the offensive line has failed to get a good push on lesser-talented defensive lines.
Having new coordinators and plenty of new players can only be used as an excuse for so long, and those things need to improve if the Razorbacks want to have success this season.
Going into a Week 3 matchup against the BYU Cougars — a team that ranks No. 70 in the FPI and No. 58 in efficiency rating (55.9) — the Razorbacks will face their toughest opponent yet before the grind of an SEC schedule begins in Week 4 versus LSU.
Arkansas and BYU are set for a 6:30 p.m. CT kickoff Saturday at Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville. The game will be televised on ESPN2.
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