The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4, 3-3 SEC) fell in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) following their 63-31 loss Saturday to the No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.
After coming in at 25th overall following their win over Mississippi State, the Razorbacks stumbled four spots to No. 29 off the back of the loss to Ole Miss in ESPN’s FPI this week.
Head coach Sam Pittman’s squad now has a 6.5-5.5 projected win total with a 97.0% chance of obtaining six wins during the season. On top of that, Arkansas now no longer has a chance at winning the SEC or making the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI.
According to ESPN, Arkansas now has the 14th-highest SOS (strength of schedule) and the 25th-best remaining SOS. The Razorbacks also slot in at No. 32 in Game Control rank, which reflects the chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end. Finally, Arkansas is No. 56 in average in-game win probability.
After 10 weeks of football, Arkansas dropped to No. 33 in the country in efficiency rankings, according to ESPN. This includes a 64.9 (No. 36) offensive rating.
The defensive rating moved down to 66.8 (No. 35) this week, and the special teams unit increased its rating to 44.2 (No. 90) after the Ole Miss game.
Compared to the rest of the SEC, the Razorbacks come in at No. 12 in the FPI just above, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi State. The Hogs look slightly better in the efficiency department, as they slot in at No. 11 in the SEC.
Following the upcoming bye week, Arkansas' next matchup will be at home against No. 6 Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC), which ranks No. 1 in ESPN's FPI with a 71.8 offensive efficiency (20th) and 92.0 defensive efficiency (2nd).
Per ESPN analytics, Arkansas has a 16.2% chance of beating Texas on Nov. 16, a 94.7% chance of beating Louisiana Tech on Nov. 23 and a 39.4% chance of beating Missouri on Nov. 30.
The Razorbacks' game against the Longhorns will kick off at 11 CT at Razorback Stadium next Saturday. It will be broadcast on ABC or ESPN.
