The Arkansas football team has just three games left in the 2024 regular season, but how exactly will the Razorbacks finish and what do the different possibilities mean for the program long-term?
With a 5-4 (3-3 SEC) overall record, fifth-year head coach Sam Pittman needs just one victory to clinch bowl eligibility. While Arkansas could technically lose out and miss the postseason altogether, that scenario is highly unlikely with 3-6 Louisiana Tech playing in Fayetteville on Nov. 23.
For the purposes of this story, I will assume Arkansas takes care of business against the Bulldogs, who have just a 5.5% chance of defeating the Razorbacks, according to ESPN Analytics.
Here are some of the different ways Arkansas can finish the year and the effects each could have during the upcoming offseason:
Scenario No. 1: Arkansas sweeps remaining slate
Let me start by saying that I don’t believe Arkansas will defeat all of Texas, Louisiana Tech and Missouri. As aforementioned above, a win against the Bulldogs is expected, but defeating a top-5 Longhorns team and winning at Columbia, Missouri, for the first time in program history is a tall task.
But anything is possible in college athletics, and the Razorbacks already proved that with their historic win over No. 4 Tennessee earlier this season.
If Arkansas wins its final three games, that means defensive coordinator Travis Williams fixed the defensive mishaps from the LSU and Ole Miss games and got his unit playing back to early-season strength.
It also means that Bobby Petrino revved up his offense's production in the red zone, and quarterback Taylen Green took the next step as a signal caller and leader within Petrino’s scheme.
In any case, a 3-0 finish puts Arkansas at an 8-4 (5-3 SEC) final regular season record and likely in a generally well-respected bowl game. Pittman will be back in the good graces of most fans and the Razorbacks will be primed for a great transfer portal haul in the offseason.
Scenario No. 2: Arkansas splits SEC competition
Most preseason prognostications pegged Arkansas within the 5-to-7 win range, so going 2-1 in the final stretch and landing at 7-5 (4-4 SEC) would be fairly respectable after a 4-8 campaign in 2023.
Again, maintaining some kind of momentum heading into the offseason is vital for the Razorbacks, so eking out at least one conference victory will go a long way in accomplishing that.
Whether that victory comes against Texas or Missouri is up for debate, but I think the most beneficial between the two is getting over the hump against Eliah Drinkwitz and the Tigers. Sure, a win against Texas will put Arkansas back in the spotlight for a week, but that buzz will sour with a loss to Missouri to close the season.
Scenario No. 3: Arkansas hits relative rock-bottom
Unfortunately for Arkansas fans, the most plausible final result for the Hogs is also the most disappointing.
There are really two primary ways this could play out. The first is that Arkansas remains mostly competitive against Texas and Missouri, and also blows out Louisiana Tech as it should. That puts the Razorbacks at an underwhelming 6-6 (3-5 SEC) finish, which is enough for a bowl game but fails to generate hype within the fanbase.
The less-ideal scenario is that Arkansas begins letting go of the rope with blowout defeats to the Longhorns and Tigers, and the game against the Bulldogs is too close for comfort in a similar fashion to the Hogs' 37-27 victory over UAB in Week 3.
At that point, things will be looking pretty dire for Pittman. The once joyful mood surrounding Williams' defense will be wiped out after the unit continues falling apart, and an offense that has struggled with self-inflicted mistakes all year will be less exciting, especially with key contributors like running back Ja'Quinden Jackson and wide receiver Andrew Armstrong set to graduate.
Speculating on job security for coaches is a fool's errand, but Pittman's recently cooled seat could get reheated with that kind of close to the season.
