Behind Enemy Lines: Gaining Miss. State insight from BulldogBlitz.com
We continue HawgBeat's Behind Enemy Lines series to gain insight on Mississippi State from BulldogBlitz.com's Jack Byers.
Saturday's matchup in Starkville, Mississippi, will kickoff at 11 a.m. CT and will be broadcast on the SEC Network.
Here is what Byers had to say about Arkansas vs. Mississippi State:
What is Mississippi State's identity through five games?
Of course, with a Mike Leach team, the Bulldogs love to throw the ball, but drives tend to be long with lots of short or intermediate passes. The run game has been a bigger point of emphasis this season, and they have two running backs averaging over five yards per carry in Dillon Johnson and Jo'quavious Marks.
Despite Leach being an offensive coach, Mississippi State's true identity is playing with an aggressive defense. Defensive Coordinator Zach Arnett's 3-3-5 scheme features a lot of blitzes from its linebackers, and strong cornerback play from Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Decamerion Richardson has given Arnett the confidence to send more pressure.
What flaws have opponents exposed that Arkansas can expose?
The biggest flaw that Mississippi State has is its offensive line. When the Bulldogs traveled down to LSU, the Tigers brought tons of pressure, forcing Will Rogers to make quicker decisions in the pocket, and the end result was a season-high four sacks allowed and a season-low 57% completion rate.
It was a completely different approach than what Texas A&M took last week, which was to rush three and drop eight into coverage, and Will Rogers was able to pick apart the Aggie defense with his extra time in the pocket.
What is the strength of this year's Mississippi State squad?
Mississippi State's biggest strength is its defense. The Bulldogs are allowing 21 points per game which is a perfect compliment to a Leach offense that is known for lighting up the scoreboard.
The aggressiveness of Mississippi State's linebackers gives opposing quarterbacks and running backs a difficult time. The Bulldogs will be without Mike linebacker Nathaniel Watson in the first half of this matchup after he was ejected for targeting in the 3rd quarter against Texas A&M, but it's still a deep group as J.P. Purvis stepped in and racked up 1.5 sacks.
Emmanuel Forbes is one of the nation's best playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, and the junior cornerback is coming off a performance where he had two interceptions, one touchdown and one blocked kick.
Forbes leads college football with 11 interceptions since 2020, but it's not just him who has made an impact in the secondary. Decamerion Richardson has been impressive opposite of Forbes, and he currently ranks as the No. 12 cornerback in the SEC by PFF.
The Razorbacks' secondary has been bad. How much can Will Rogers expose that?
Will Rogers has a variety of weapons on the outside to help expose a depleted secondary.
Z-receivers Caleb Ducking and Justin Robinson present a size advantage over most defensive backs standing 6'5 and 6'4, respectively. Ducking is currently 2nd in the SEC with six receiving touchdowns, and Robinson, a Georgia transfer, is finally starting to get comfortable in his new offense and had a breakout game with six receptions against Texas A&M.
Mississippi State makes its bread and butter in the short passing game, and that's where Tulu Griffin and Rufus Harvey come in. Griffin possesses some blazing speed and run-after-catch ability and should be involved in some screen passes on the outside, while Harvey has been Rogers' go-to target on 3rd down out of the slot.
The most versatile of the Bulldogs' receivers is sophomore Rara Thomas, who leads the team with 365 receiving yards. Thomas is a jack of all trades as he has been Mississippi State's best downfield threat with his good speed and jump ball ability, but he also is used on a variety of short and medium routes.
Where can the Bulldogs win this game and where can they lose this game?
Where the Bulldogs can win this game is at the line of scrimmage. If the Mississippi State defense is able to get pressure on the quarterback and contain Rocket Sanders in the run game, it could be a long day for Arkansas.
Where they can lose it is on special teams. You may recall that Mississippi State missed three field goals in the 3-point loss to Arkansas last fall, and they've had their fair share of struggles again this year. Despite the woes on the offensive line against LSU, it was the special teams that really fumbled the game away.
State had the lead to start the fourth quarter, but a muffed punt allowed the Tigers an easy touchdown drive to take the lead, and from then on, LSU had all the momentum.
Mississippi State's kicking has improved from last season with transfers Ben Raybon and Massimo Biscardi from Northern Colorado and Coastal Carolina, respectively, but the kicking has still been inconsistent.
The two have combined for three missed extra points on the season. Raybon has taken over the starting role in recent weeks and has been impressive, making from 45 and 53, but has also missed an extra point and from 39.
The Bulldogs can't give away points like this on Saturday, or they could find themselves in trouble.
How do you think things play out and what's your score prediction?
I think that it all really depends on who is at quarterback for the Razorbacks. If KJ Jefferson is a go, he will present a unique challenge to game plan for, and I would expect it to be a tight game. I do expect Mississippi State to put up some points, so if Jefferson is out, I think this could be a game the Bulldogs win by double digits.
Prediction with Jefferson: Mississippi State 28, Arkansas 24
Prediction without Jefferson: Mississippi State 34, Arkansas 17