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Danielle Gibson's home run cycle had astronomical odds

FAYETTEVILLE — Danielle Gibson was ready to call it a day after her third-inning grand slam against SIU-Edwardsville last Saturday, but her teammates had their eyes on more.

They knew the Arizona State transfer hit two- and three-run home runs in her first two at bats, putting her a solo shot away from the ultra rare “home run cycle,” and let her know about it.

When it was Gibson’s turn to hit again in the fourth inning, though, there was a runner at third. With the game already in hand, she decided to turn loose and go for another two-run homer - but a wild pitch brought home Aly Manzo.

Then it hit her: Oh my gosh. This is happening. This is too crazy. The stars are aligning.

Sure enough, Corrina Rivas’ 3-1 pitch found a little too much of the plate and Gibson sent it over the center field wall at Bogle Park to complete feat.

“I’m just speechless about it still,” Gibson said in an interview with HawgBeat a few days later. “It’s something I never thought was going to happen, but it did. It’s insane.”

It was the sixth four-home run game in the history of Division I softball and only the second “home run cycle,” joining Georgetown’s Allie Anttila. Gibson’s is unique in that it was done in only four innings.

No one has ever accomplished the feat in Major League Baseball, while Tyrone Horne of the Arkansas Travelers is the only one to do it in the minors and Florida State’s Marshall McDougall is believed to be the only college baseball player to do it.

That means between MLB, MiLB, college baseball and college softball’s roughly four centuries of combined history, the home run cycle has happened only four times.

A look at the numbers shows why it is so rare. To even have the chance to do it, a player has to come up to bat with no one on, one runner on, two runners on and the bases loaded. Odds for that to happen in four consecutive at bats alone is 1-in-256.

Throw in hitting home runs in four consecutive plate appearances and the odds are astronomical.

Last season, Division I softball averaged one home run every 49.4 plate appearances. Using that stat and combining it with the chances of having the necessary runners on base, the odds of hitting for the home run cycle are 1-in-1.5 billion - or about five times less likely than winning the Powerball lottery.

That is for the average softball player, though. Gibson has a little more pop in her bat, hitting one home run every 18.4 plate appearances during her collegiate career. That improves her odds to 1-in-29.3 million. That’s much better than 1-in-1.5 billion, but she’s still 25 times more likely to get struck by lightning this year than hit for the home run cycle.

With those type of odds, the achievement became a national story. Tweets about it blew up and Gibson eventually found herself on SportsCenter and several publications like the Washington Post, MLB.com and SB Nation featured it prominently on their websites.

On campus, it even caught the eye of baseball coach Dave Van Horn, who told reporters earlier this week that it was “unbelievable.”

“I think it’s interesting because she’s not really a home run hitter as far as I knew,” Van Horn said. “This game’s nuts. When you’re playing with a round ball and trying to hit it with a bat anything can happen.”

Gibson said although she always knew she was a good hitter, she never imagined going viral. She isn’t particularly fond of all the attention, but her teammates have given her a hard time about and made it a fun experience.

“I’m not really too big about being the center of attention, so they make me feel like I’m an absolute celebrity right now,” Gibson said. “I hate it, I tell them that all the time, but they couldn’t be more supportive or more awesome about it.”

Wooo Pig Classic

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For the second straight weekend, Arkansas is hosting a tournament at Bogle Park. With cold temperatures and possible winter precipitation in the forecast for Sunday, the Razorbacks have adjusted the schedule for the Wooo Pig Classic:

Thursday

3 p.m. - Arkansas vs. Omaha

5 p.m. - Arkansas vs. Northwestern State

7 p.m. - Northwestern State vs. Omaha

Friday

10 a.m. - Boston University vs. Northwestern State

12:15 p.m. - Omaha vs. Boston University

2:30 p.m. - Northwestern State vs. Nevada

4:45 p.m. - Arkansas vs. Omaha

7 p.m. - Arkansas vs. Nevada

Saturday

11 a.m. - Omaha vs. Nevada

1:15 p.m. - Nevada vs. Northwestern State

3:30 p.m. - Arkansas vs. Boston University

5:45 p.m. - Arkansas vs. Boston University

Sunday

10 a.m. - Nevada vs. Boston University

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