Deeper look at pros, cons of Ben Hicks as Arkansas' next QB

When Arkansas struck out on its No. 1 graduate transfer target, it had to dip into the Group of Five to find its quarterback for next season.

It’s easy to see why there are concerns with Ben Hicks, who committed to the Razorbacks on Monday after four seasons at SMU, especially following the sweepstakes for Kelly Bryant, a quarterback with a College Football Playoff appearance on his resume who landed at Missouri.

There is no doubt Hicks is a notch or two below Bryant and those who believe he immediately makes Arkansas a bowl team could be setting themselves up for disappointment, but the situation also isn’t as bad as others may think. The reality, as is usually the case, is somewhere in between.

The arguments for and against Hicks are nuanced and not cut and dry. Take his statistics, for example.

In three seasons as SMU’s primary starter, he threw for a school-record 9,081 yards and 71 touchdowns, but completed only 56.7 percent of his passes and was intercepted 34 times.

Critics have used that completion percentage and interception total as ammunition. While that is understandable, it’s also fair to recognize the natural progression of a quarterback as he gets older and more experienced - similar to what Arkansas fans saw from Brandon Allen.

Hicks’ interceptions have fallen from 15 as a redshirt freshman in 2016 to 12 in 2017 and seven in 2018. He also has a 2.1-to-1 career touchdown-to-interception ratio, which is much better than the combined 1.3-to-1 career ratio of Ty Storey and Cole Kelley, who Hicks is replacing.

That pair has a career completion percentage of 56.4, slightly lower than that of Hicks, and threw an interception every 24.8 pass attempts compared to Hicks throwing one every 37.2 attempts.

Of course, Hicks put up those numbers the American Athletic Conference and will now be asked to compete in the SEC, arguably the toughest conference in the country.

Making the jump from the Group of Five to the Power Five as a graduate transfer quarterback is rare, but it has happened before and players like Kurt Benkert (East Carolina to Virginia), Ryan Finley (Boise State to North Carolina State) and Gardner Minshew (East Carolina to Washington State) have enjoyed a lot of success.

It’s impossible to know if Hicks will be able to add his name to that list with spring practice still more than a month away. A look at his past can provide some idea of how he’ll fare against the better competition, though.

This chart details his statistics in nine games against AP Top-25 teams and five games against Power Five teams, as well as his splits in 34 games against FBS competition based on their defensive grade from Pro Football Focus.

As can be expected, Hicks’ stats were better against teams with worse defenses. That bodes well in a conference like The American, but not so much in the SEC.

Five of the Razorbacks’ 2019 opponents - Alabama (No. 5), Auburn (No. 15), Kentucky (No. 17), Mississippi State (No. 21) and LSU (No. 39) - posted top-50 defensive grades, according to Pro Football Focus, last season.

Texas A&M was just outside at No. 52, while Missouri (No. 66), Ole Miss (No. 88) and Western Kentucky (No. 97) fall in the 51-100 range.

The good news for Arkansas is that it opens the season against FCS Portland State, Ole Miss, Colorado State (No. 126) and San Jose State (No. 117), so that should give Hicks time to adjust to his new teammates and build some confidence before getting into the teeth of the schedule.

Hicks’ skillset has also been a point of discussion. Unlike Bryant, who is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, Hicks has limited mobility as evidenced by his minus-104 career rushing yards.

Most of that can be attributed to sacks, as he wasn’t very elusive in the backfield and opponents sacked him 72 times in three years. That is particularly concerning at Arkansas, where quarterbacks have been sacked an SEC-high 102 times over that span.

When he escaped and scrambled or was asked to run on designed played, though, Hicks averaged 6.0 yards per carry.

It’s not likely that Hicks’ skillset will allow the Razorbacks to open their new offensive playbook completely, but he does have a familiarity with head coach Chad Morris and offensive coordinator Joe Craddock that the other quarterbacks on the roster don’t.

Last season, Arkansas’ quarterback battle went well into the season, with first-team reps being split between two quarterback throughout spring practice, fall camp and even the first three weeks of the regular season.

A big reason for that was Morris and Craddock didn’t trust either guy to run the offense. That shouldn’t be the case with Hicks, who had three years to establish a connection with those coaches at SMU.

Although Hicks doesn’t have the legs you’d expect on a quarterback under Morris, he does have a strong arm that better suits the offense. On his career passes traveling at least 20 yards through the air, 43.8 percent were either completed or dropped by the wide receiver, according to Pro Football Focus.

Even without Morris and Craddock calling plays and with Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn in the NFL, Hicks was still accurate on 46.2 percent of his deep passes. Facing the likes of Alabama and LSU, that number would likely take a hit, but it would have ranked third in the SEC this season behind only Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa (58.6 percent) and Missouri’s Drew Lock (54.7 percent).

As a group, Arkansas was accurate on only 30.4 percent of its deep passes in 2018. That was 2.2 percentage points worse than Kentucky for last in the SEC and was exacerbated by the fact the Razorbacks attempted the second most such passes per game in the conference.

Finally, the addition of Hicks allows Arkansas’ young quarterback room to get another year of seasoning before being thrown to the wolves. With Storey and Kelley transferring out, that leaves redshirt sophomore Daulton Hyatt (4 career snaps), redshirt freshmen Connor Noland (130 snaps) and John Stephen Jones (20 snaps), and true freshman KJ Jefferson on the roster. Plus, the most experienced of that bunch - Noland - will be splitting his time this spring with baseball.

Morris openly admitted the Razorbacks were searching for an older player at the position and guys weren’t exactly lining up to play for a 2-10 team, so they scooped up Hicks after missing out on Bryant.

Arkansas was the betting favorite to land Texas’ Shane Buechele, who has put up good numbers at the Power Five level, but he didn't enter the transfer portal until this week and won't graduate until after the spring semester. Ultimately, the Razorbacks decided not to wait it out and bring in a quarterback who would be able to go through spring practice.

How he fares could set the tone of Morris’ tenure and there are reasons for both optimism and pessimism with Hicks, but only time will tell if Arkansas made the right decision by bringing him in as a one-year bandaid before turning the keys over to one of the young guys.