ESPN BPI projects Arkansas' final 12 regular-season games
Arkansas nearly picked up a signature win to bolster its resume Tuesday, but ultimately came up just short with a three-point loss at No. 14 Texas Tech.
Now the Razorbacks must turn their attention to the final two-thirds of the SEC slate, which features key road games at LSU, Auburn and Kentucky.
With records of 11-8 overall and 2-4 in conference play, Arkansas has a lot of work to do to make the postseason.
Barring a deep run in the SEC Tournament, the Razorbacks likely need to finish at least .500 in the SEC to even get on the bubble. That would mean winning at least seven of the last 12 regular-season games.
It’s hard to know if that would be enough to actually get into the NCAA Tournament because the selection committee has shifted from RPI - which has a known formula and is dictated solely by wins/losses - to NET, a new ratings system that also factors in how teams play in wins and losses.
Reaching the NIT requires an above-.500 winning percentage, which would be guaranteed by winning half of the remaining games.
Just how much of an uphill climb will that be for Arkansas? Predicting the future is never easy, especially in sports, but ESPN’s Basketball Power Index projects the winner and places a percentage of likelihood for every Division I basketball game.
Here are the projections for the Razorbacks’ remaining regular-season games:
| Game | BPI Favorite (likelihood) |
|---|---|
|
Jan. 29 - vs. Georgia |
ARK (76.0 percent) |
|
Feb. 2 - at LSU |
LSU (83.3 percent) |
|
Feb. 5 - vs. Vanderbilt |
ARK (73.0 percent) |
|
Feb. 9 - at South Carolina |
S.C. (64.7 percent) |
|
Feb. 12 - at Missouri |
MIZ (60.5 percent) |
|
Feb. 16 - vs. Mississippi State |
MSU (58.7 percent) |
|
Feb. 20 - at Auburn |
AUB (89.8 percent) |
|
Feb. 23 - vs. Texas A&M |
ARK (76.7 percent) |
|
Feb. 26 - at Kentucky |
KENT (91.3 percent) |
|
March 2 - vs. Ole Miss |
ARK (53.5 percent) |
|
March 6 - at Vanderbilt |
VAN (57.3 percent) |
|
March 9 - vs. Alabama |
ARK (59.2 percent) |
As you can see, they are favored to win five of those games, with three being more than 70 percent likely to happen.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the BPI is predicting Arkansas to go 5-7 down the stretch. Just because, for example, Mississippi State has a 58.7 percent chance to win the Feb. 16 matchup, the Razorbacks still have a 41.3 percent chance to win.
Using those figures, it is possible to determine how likely it is for Arkansas to finish with each record, from 0-12 to 12-0, down the stretch. Here are those percentages:
| Stretch Record (overall, SEC) | Likelihood |
|---|---|
|
12-0 (23-8, 14-4) |
0.0005 percent |
|
11-1 (22-9, 13-5) |
0.02 percent |
|
10-2 (21-10, 12-6) |
0.21 percent |
|
9-3 (20-11, 11-7) |
1.45 percent |
|
8-4 (19-12, 10-8) |
5.77 percent |
|
7-5 (18-13, 9-9) |
14.41 percent |
|
6-6 (17-14, 8-10) |
23.48 percent |
|
5-7 (16-15, 7-11) |
25.35 percent |
|
4-8 (15-16, 6-12) |
18.12 percent |
|
3-9 (14-17, 5-13) |
8.39 percent |
|
2-10 (13-18, 4-14) |
2.40 percent |
|
1-11 (12-19, 3-15) |
0.38 percent |
|
0-12 (11-20, 2-16) |
0.03 percent |
As you can see, the most likely record, according to ESPN’s BPI, is 5-7, but it is only a little more likely than going 6-6.
Going 7-5 to get back on the bubble has a 14.4 percent chance of happening, but there is also the possibility of winning more than that. By adding those to the mix, Arkansas has a 21.9 percent chance of winning at least seven of its remaining games.
The Razorbacks have a 45.3 percent chance of winning at least half of their games to put themselves in the mix for the NIT.