ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projects Arkansas Razorbacks' 2020 football record
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ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' 2020 record

Arkansas faces long odds once again in 2020.
Arkansas faces long odds once again in 2020. (Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports)

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Coming off back-to-back two-win seasons and riding a 19-game SEC losing streak, expectations for Sam Pittman's first season at Arkansas are pretty low.

Most sports books across the country have set the Razorbacks' over/under win total at 3.5 for the 2020 season and they'll likely be picked last in the SEC West in most preseason publications.

However, ESPN's Football Power Index paints a slightly more positive picture.

Arkansas is favored in only three of its games by the FPI, but it is a heavy favorite in all three. As seen in the chart below, the Razorbacks have at least an 83.0 percent chance to beat Nevada, Charleston Southern and ULM.

Although they have less than a 15 percent chance to win in five of their other games, the Razorbacks are underdogs in four that could almost be considered toss-ups.

In each of those games - at Mississippi State and against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri - Arkansas' odds of winning are better than 43 percent.

Reaching six wins to become bowl eligible is still highly unlikely, with a 32.6 percent chance, but that is higher than last year's preseason odds (27.0%).

Much like last season, their most likely record is 5-7. The FPI gives Arkansas a 30.8 percent chance to finish with that record.

For gamblers, though, the more interesting stat is that the FPI puts the odds of the Razorbacks winning four or more games - and hitting the over 3.5 wins - at a whopping 87.8 percent.

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
Game FPI odds

Sept. 5 - vs. Nevada

83.0%

Sept. 12 - at Notre Dame

9.7%

Sept. 19 - at Mississippi State

47.4%

Sept. 26 - *vs. Texas A&M

13.2%

Oct. 3 - vs. Charleston Southern

98.8%

Oct. 10 - vs. Alabama

4.7%

Oct. 17 - vs. LSU

8.6%

Oct. 31 - vs. Tennessee

45.6%

Nov. 7 - at Auburn

6.1%

Nov. 14 - vs. Ole Miss

42.1%

Nov. 21 - vs. ULM

89.2%

Nov. 28 - *vs. Missouri

46.6%

Arkansas' Record Projections
Record Likelihood 2019 Preseason Projections

12-0

0.0000098%

0.0000055%

11-1

0.00066%

0.00044%

10-2

0.018%

0.013%

9-3

0.25%

0.18%

8-4

1.95%

1.40%

7-5

8.68%

6.62%

6-6

21.66%

18.82%

5-7

30.76%

31.39%

4-8

24.50%

28.07%

3-9

10.19%

11.31%

2-10

1.86%

2.05%

1-11

0.12%

0.15%

0-12

0.0012%

0.0024%