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Published Aug 2, 2019
ESPN FPI, S&P+ project Arkansas' 2019 record
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
Managing Editor
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@NWAHutch

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Coming off the worst season in school history, Arkansas doesn't exactly have a lot of outside expectations heading into 2019.

Most sportsbooks around the country have set the Razorbacks' over/under win total at 5 or 5.5 and the media picked them to finish last in the SEC West once again.

Not surprisingly, two of the most well-known college football analytics aren't very high on Arkansas either. ESPN's Football Power Index and Bill Connelly's S&P+ both favor the Razorbacks in only four games this season.

The FPI gives Arkansas at least a 77 percent chance to win in all four of its non-conference games, while the S&P+ is slightly more favorable with at least an 84 percent chance of winning in each game.

Conference play is a completely different story for the Razorbacks. They are heavy underdogs in all eight SEC games according to the FPI. Similar to non-conference play, the S&P+ gives them better odds, but not by much.

The Ole Miss game in Week 2 is Arkansas' best chance to snap its SEC losing streak, which sits at 11 games coming into the season. ESPN FPI gives the Razorbacks a 26.6 percent chance of winning that game, while the S&P+ gives them a 39 percent chance.

Here's a game-by-game breakdown of the projections from both analytics...

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
GameESPN FPIS&P+

Aug. 31 - Portland St.

97.9%

96%

Sept. 7 - at Ole Miss

26.6%

39%

Sept. 14 - Colorado St.

82.4%

89%

Sept. 21 - San Jose St.

87.0%

92%

Sept. 28 - vs. Texas A&M

12.8%

23%

Oct. 12 - at Kentucky

25.4%

38%

Oct. 19 - Auburn

14.5%

21%

Oct. 26 - at Alabama

2.5%

3%

Nov. 2 - Mississippi St.

22.0%

23%

Nov. 9 - Western Kentucky

77.6%

84%

Nov. 23 - at LSU

5.8%

10%

Nov. 29 - Missouri (LR)

25.1%

30%

Although they are favored in just four games, it would not be accurate to say the FPI and S&P+ are predicting the Razorbacks to go 4-8 this season.

Both analytics still give them a chance to win all of the games - they even have a 2.5 and 3 percent chance to beat Alabama - and a chance to lose all of the games - including a 2.1 and 4 percent chance to lose to Portland State.

Using the game-by-game percentages above, it is possible to calculate the record projections, which can be found below.

Arkansas' Record Projections
RecordESPN FPIS&P+

12-0

0.0000055%

0.000098%

11-1

0.00044%

0.0057%

10-2

0.013%

0.11%

9-3

0.18%

0.96%

8-4

1.40%

4.87%

7-5

6.62%

14.85%

6-6

18.82%

27.36%

5-7

31.39%

29.55%

4-8

28.07%

17.15%

3-9

11.31%

4.55%

2-10

2.05%

0.56%

1-11

0.15%

0.031%

0-12

0.0024%

0.00061%

As you can see in the chart, both projections have 5-7 as Arkansas' most likely record.

Because of its more favorable game projections, the S&P+ is weighted more on the positive side for the Razorbacks. For example, they are more likely to go 6-6 (27.4 percent) than 4-8 (17.2 percent). The FPI is the opposite.

To determine how likely it is for Arkansas to reach six wins and become bowl eligible, you must add together the likelihood for each record of 6-6 and better.

The FPI gives the Razorbacks a 27.0 percent chance - or about 1 in 4 - to hit that mark, while it's almost a toss-up in the S&P+, with a 48.2 percent chance.

HawgBeat will update these figures as the analytics adjust throughout the season.