Arkansas is halfway to the magic 20-win mark, but the second half will be much more difficult than the first.
According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Razorbacks have a 41.4 percent chance to reaching 20 wins as they enter SEC play this week.
Getting to that milestone would require either a 9-9 record in conference play with a win over West Virginia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge or at least a 10-8 mark in SEC play with a loss to the Mountaineers.
That will be an uphill battle, as the BPI favors Arkansas in only eight SEC games. If the Razorbacks are going to meet or exceed those thresholds, they'll likely need to do it early on, as seven of the conference games they're favored in by the BPI come within their first 10.
The West Virginia game - which it has a 60.5% chance of winning - is also within that stretch.
The Razorbacks are underdogs - according to the BPI - in their last five games and seven of their last eight, with a road game at Missouri the exception.
Using those game-by-game projections, it can be calculated that Arkansas' most likely SEC record is 8-10, which is just slightly more likely than going 9-9 (20.6% vs. 20.3%).
Here are the game-by-game projections for Arkansas' SEC games, followed by their possible conference records...
