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Published Sep 14, 2021
ESPN's FPI likes Arkansas' bowl chances after 2-0 start
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
Managing Editor
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@NWAHutch

In two short weeks, Arkansas has gone from a toss up to make a bowl game to a virtual lock to make the postseason, according to ESPN's computers.

With wins over Rice and Texas already under their belt, the Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Razorbacks a 93.6 percent chance to hit the six-win mark in 2021. They are also now No. 22 in the FPI's rankings.

Before the season, Arkansas' odds of reaching bowl eligibility - according to the FPI - were sitting at just 53.3 percent and it was No. 36 in the preseason rankings.

Still favored in the same games as they were in the preseason, the Razorbacks are also favored to beat LSU on the road - sitting at 52.7 percent - after being a heavy underdog (28.8%) over the summer.

Couple that with increased odds of winning in eight of the remaining 10 games and Arkansas' most likely record, according to the FPI, is now 7-5. It's worth noting, though, that the Razorbacks are much more likely to go 8-4 than 6-6.

Check out the FPI's updated game-by-game projections below, as well as Arkansas' chances to finish with each record - from 2-10 to 12-0 - using those numbers...

Game-by-Game Projections
GameFPI oddsChange since preseason

Sept. 18 - Georgia Southern

96.8%

+14.6%

Sept. 25 - vs. Texas A&M (Arlington)

35.2%

+16.8%

Oct. 2 - at Georgia

12.3%

-0.2%

Oct. 9 - at Ole Miss

35.2%

+3.2%

Oct. 16 - Auburn

45.3%

+3.6%

Oct. 23 - UAPB (Little Rock)

99.8%

0%

Nov. 6 - Mississippi State

72.0%

+16.1%

Nov. 13 - at LSU

52.7%

+23.9%

Nov. 20 - at Alabama

8.6%

+3.1%

Nov. 26 - Missouri

76.4%

+12.5%

Record Projections
RecordLikelihood

12-0

0.017%

11-1

0.40%

10-2

3.46%

9-3

13.47%

8-4

27.33%

7-5

30.46%

6-6

18.45%

5-7

5.66%

4-8

0.73%

3-9

0.020%

2-10

0.000037%

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