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For the first time in a quarter-century, Arkansas reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament — and didn’t stop there, making it to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1995.
A team that started conference play 2-4 and was overlooked for half the season finished the regular season on an eight-game winning streak and won 11 of its final 12 games. The Razorbacks were rewarded on Selection Sunday, earning a 3 seed.
That team was obviously good on the scoreboard, boasting a 25-7 (13-4 SEC) record, but analytically they were impressive, too.
The KenPom Ratings, a database of advanced statistics adjusted based on each team’s opponents, is one of several tools used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee when determining seeding and evaluating tournament resumes.
The 2020-21 Razorbacks finished the season at No. 18 in the overall KenPom ratings, and was very impressive in some specific categories. They were 43rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 19th in adjusted tempo.
Comparatively, this year’s team — sitting at 22-6 (11-4) — is currently No. 19 in the overall KenPom ratings. That includes being ranked 62nd, 13th, and 26th, respectively, in the adjusted individualized statistics.
With the regular season being mostly completed, it is safe to assume that team trends, identities and analytics are good indicators of the type of team they will be in March. The goal of this piece is not to compare this year’s team to last year’s analytics, but to compare this year’s KenPom ratings — and some other statistics — with other Sweet 16 teams in recent history.
Of the teams to make it to the Sweet Sixteen over the past five NCAA Tournaments, only 24 of 80 teams were top-20 in both offensive and defensive ratings on KenPom. However, those teams that are in the top-20 of both have been the most likely to advance.
Of those 24 teams, all but four advanced to the Elite Eight and 10 eventually reached the Final Four. While this piece is an analysis of KenPom trends, I won’t dive into every single possible trend, but rather focus on the ones that specifically apply to the Razorbacks.
So for Arkansas, I’ll be focusing on teams over the last five NCAA Tournaments who had top-20 defenses on KenPom with offenses outside the top-20. Of the 80 teams in the Sweet Sixteen over the past five years, 21 of them fell into that category, including last year’s Arkansas team.
