HawgBeat's coverage of the Razorbacks' Road to Redemption in Omaha is brought to you by Arkansas Oral Surgery, which has offices located in Conway and Russellville.
For the third straight year, Arkansas has earned the right to stay home for the postseason. The 2019 Fayetteville Regional features California, TCU and Central Connecticut State.
Before play begins Friday, HawgBeat is taking a closer look at all three visiting teams. Next up is the No. 3 seed, TCU…
Record: 32-26 (11-13 Big 12)
A preseason top-20 team, TCU never really lived up to expectations this season and finished tied for sixth in the nine-team Big 12. The Horned Frogs won just half of their conference series and went 6-10 against the Big 12’s four ranked teams. However, they did win a series at West Virginia earlier this month and picked up wins over Baylor and Oklahoma State at the Big 12 Tournament. That was enough to make TCU the “last team in” for the 2019 NCAA Tournament.
Head coach: Jim Schlossnagle (16th season)
Undoubtedly the best coach in school history, Schlossnagle has a record of 680-321 (.679) at TCU. He has guided the Horned Frogs to the postseason in all but two of his 16 years at the helm, including five trips to the College World Series.
In half of his seasons, Schlossnagle has been named the conference’s coach of the year, getting the nod seven times in the Mountain West and once (2015) in the Big 12. He was also named the NCBWA National Coach of the Year in 2010 and Baseball America National Coach of the Year in 2016.
Postseason History
TCU did not have much of a postseason history before Schlossnagle arrived, making the NCAA Tournament just twice - in 1956 and 1994. It has become a staple of the postseason over the last 16 years, though.
Before missing the tournament last year, the Horned Frogs had a run of nine years in which it reached the super regionals seven times and the College World Series five times. That includes a four-year run from 2014-2017 that they made it to Omaha each season.
Common Opponents
Vanderbilt
The Horned Frogs opened the season with an impressive showing at the MLB4 Tournament in Arizona, capped by a dominant 10-2 win over Vanderbilt.
Arkansas played the Commodores on their home field last month and lost two of three games. After dropping a tight 3-2 decision in the opener, the Razorbacks were blown out 12-2 to lose the series. They managed to salvage Game 3 by scoring five runs in the ninth to pull out a wild 14-12 victory.
Texas A&M
Also early in the season, TCU participated in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Baseball Classic at Minute Maid Park in Houston against a bunch of former Southwest Conference foes. The second game was against Texas A&M, in which the Aggies scored on a bases-loaded walk in the third inning and made that lead stick for a 1-0 win. The Horned Frogs had just one hit the entire game.
Arkansas ended the regular season with a road trip to Texas A&M and, after winning the first game, dropped two straight to lose the series. The Razorbacks were plagued by an inability to drive in runs, going 1 for 16 with runners in scoring position in the two losses.
Texas
The first conference series of the season for TCU was at home against Texas. It scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth to win Game 1 and five runs in the bottom of the eighth to win the rubber match.
That series was played just a couple days after Arkansas’ trip to Austin, Texas, for a two-game midweek series. The Razorbacks didn’t have any issues winning the first game 11-4, but lost the second game 7-6. They nearly won the game despite pitching a slew of freshmen who struggled to find the strike zone, combining for 14 walks and four hit by pitches. By contrast, the Longhorns threw their closer for the final three innings of the game. That meant he wasn’t available to pitch against TCU when it scored three runs in the ninth.
Projected Starting Lineup
C - Zach Humphreys (jr.): .278/.343/.429, 8 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 11 BB/20 K, 2-3 SB
1B - Conner Shepherd (r-jr.): .292/.388/.468, 8 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 27 BB/49 K, 5-6 SB
2B - Austin Henry (r-jr.): .287/.378/.417, 9 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 31 BB/45 K, 11-13 SB
3B - Bobby Goodloe (fr.): .273/.367/.327, 4 2B, 1 3B, 14 RBI, 17 BB/19 K, 1-2 SB
SS - Adam Oviedo (so.): .288/.376/.435, 10 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 21 BB/35 K, 1-4 SB
LF - Josh Watson (sr.): .335/.435/.549, 20 2B, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 34 BB/42 K, 9-13 SB
CF - Johnny Rizer (sr.): .313/.383/.536, 16 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 26 BB/48 K, 8-13 SB
RF - Andrew Keefer (jr.): .262/.333/.383, 7 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 14 BB/25 K, 2-3 SB
DH - Hunter Wolfe (r-jr.): .299/.423/.482, 6 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 29 BB/40 K, 11-13 SB
Bench - Jake Guenther (r-jr.): .346/.466/.569, 13 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 39 RBI, 38 BB/27 K, 11-11 SB
The Ace
Much like No. 2 seed California, TCU is led by a potential top-10 pick in next week’s MLB Draft. Junior left-hander Nick Lodolo is ranked as the No. 8 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline and could be the first pitcher taken.
He was actually a supplemental first-round pick by the Pirates back in 2016, but decided to go to school. The gamble has paid off as he’s put together a really nice junior season, posting a 2.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 125 strikeouts in 98 innings. Lodolo is also holding opponents to a .202 batting average.
Here is MLB Pipeline’s scouting report on him:
“Lodolo usually works at 90-94 mph and peaks at 96 with sink on his fastball, using his 6-foot-6 frame to deliver it on a steep downhill plane. He showed inconsistent feel for spinning a curveball in the past and is focusing instead on a tighter slider in the low 80s that has become a solid offering. He also sells his changeup well and it has good action at the plate, giving him three pitches that all can grade as plus at their best.”
He will likely start TCU’s opening game against Cal, but Schlossnagle said Monday that might not necessarily be the case. It depends on the matchups. Assuming Lodolo does get the nod Friday, the Horned Frogs still have some solid options to start the future games.
Junior Brandon Williamson is another 6-foot-6 left-hander and will probably be the No. 2 starter. He is the No. 83 prospect for next week’s MLB Draft, according to MLB Pipeline, and a projected second- or third-round pick, despite a 4.30 ERA this season. Coming out of North Iowa Area C.C. last year, Williamson could have gone in the top three rounds had it not been for his high asking price, which made him fall to the 36th round.
Another arm Arkansas could face this weekend is fifth-year senior Jared Janczak. The right-hander’s 5.71 ERA is somewhat deceiving, as he’s a former All-American who has battled injuries throughout his career. He returned to the starting rotation in the Big 12 Tournament and had 12 strikeouts in a win over Oklahoma State, which probably got the Horned Frogs into the NCAA Tournament.
(UPDATE: TCU will start Williamson against Cal on Friday, saving Lodolo for a potential matchup with Arkansas on Saturday.)
The Stud
Although TCU has a pair of talented seniors in its outfield, its best player this season has actually been redshirt junior Jake Guenther. He leads the team in all three slash categories at .346/.466/.569, is a perfect 11 for 11 on stolen base attempts and doesn’t strikeout much (27 in 188 at bats).
Originally a lightly recruited pitcher out of Wisconsin, Guenther began his collegiate career at Sacramento City College in California. It was there that he converted to a position player because of arm injuries and caught the attention of TCU.
It seems to have been a seamless transition for him, as his numbers were good enough to earn first-team All-Big 12 accolades and win the Big 12 Newcomer of the Year award.
However, he has missed some time recently with a wrist injury suffered in a collision at first base against Kansas. That likely had an effect on his 0-for-7, four-strikeout performance against Texas Tech that ended in NCAA-leading streak of 50 games reaching base.
Guenther is considered day-to-day and played some as a defensive replacement in the Big 12 Tournament. If he returns, the lineup listed above will be shuffled some, likely with Conner Shepherd going to third base and Bobby Goodloe going to designated hitter.
Injured Closer
One player TCU will be without is closer Marcelo Perez. The freshman right-hander was shut down before the Big 12 Tournament with a shoulder injury.
Before going down, Perez was 3-2 with five saves, a 4.30 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 23 innings. That earned him a spot on the Big 12’s All-Freshman Team.
Former SWC Rivals
From 1974-1991, Arkansas and TCU were both members of the old Southwest Conference. During that stretch, they played 54 times, with the Razorbacks holding a 40-14 edge. Incredibly, six of the losses came in the first two years, as the Horned Frogs actually swept the first two series. From that point on, Arkansas won 14 of 15 series.
Including three matchups before they were conference opponents and seven since Arkansas joined the SEC, the all-time series sits at 45-19 in favor of the Razorbacks. That includes a home-and-home in 1994 and 1995 in which both teams pulled off home sweeps.
The last time Arkansas and TCU met on the baseball field was early in the 2006 season at the Al Ogletree Classic in Edinburg, Texas. Led by Nick Schmidt’s six hitless innings and Craig Gentry’s 3-for-3 performance, the Razorbacks won 5-2. The Horned Frogs were led by Matt Carpenter, who went 2 for 4.
The Arkansas-TCU Connection
Although they haven’t played in 13 years, there has still been an interesting Arkansas-TCU connection over the last few seasons.
Former Arkansas hitting coach and current Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello was at TCU before joining the Razorbacks’ staff and was a key part of the Horned Frogs’ recruiting classes that took them to four straight College World Series.
The Razorbacks have also brought in two transfers from TCU in Zack Plunkett and Coby Boulware.
Now a fifth-year senior, Plunkett is Arkansas’ backup catcher and is hitting .265 with two home runs and nine RBIs. Boulware is sitting out this season because of NCAA transfer rules and could be a candidate to start in the infield next season, as he started nearly every game at second base as a freshman at TCU in 2018.
Stat Comparison - Arkansas | TCU (national rank, out of 297 teams)
RPI: No. 6 | No. 59
Batting average: .299 (23rd) | .295 (28th)
Slugging percentage: .491 (10th) | .455 (30th)
On-base percentage: .398 (19th) | .391 (31st)
Home runs: 78 (12th) | 60 (t-42nd)
Runs/game: 7.5 (16th) | 6.5 (t-73rd)
ERA: 3.96 (49th) | 4.27 (78th)
WHIP: 1.27 (23rd) | 1.44 (103rd)
Strikeouts/9 innings: 9.6 (23rd) | 9.3 (31st)
Strikeout-to-walk ratio: 2.48 (40th) | 2.59 (26th)
Fielding percentage: .970 (114th) | .960 (250th)
Stolen bases/game: 1.22 (88th) | 1.21 (91st)
