Freshmen impact exceeding ranking expectations
Coming into the season with the 8th ranked recruiting class in the country, Arkansas fans expected the homegrown talent to contribute early. In the midst of an eight-game conference win streak, the three healthy freshmen are playing a crucial role in the Razorbacks’ success.
“There’s not many teams that are relying on three freshmen the way that we are,” Arkansas Head Coach Eric Musselman said in his post-game interview. “We’re not just relying on them in the SEC, but we’re relying on those guys to win. We’re relying on them to score baskets.”
Moses Moody has continued to play the most minutes on the team, while Jaylin Williams and Davonte Davis have seen their minutes increase of late. During the eight-game span, Moody is averaging 32.8 minutes, 14.6 points, and 5.4 rebounds per game.
Davis has added 24.8 minutes, 9.4 points, and 5.2 rebounds, while Williams is contributing 18.7 minutes, 4.6 points, and 4.7 rebounds. It should be noted, though, that Williams has been even more productive the last four games, averaging 24.2 minutes, 7.5 points, and 6.7 rebounds.
Out of teams currently ranked in the top-20, Arkansas is the only program to have three freshman playing 14+ minutes per game since conference play started.
The landscape of college basketball is shifting focus to on one-and-done NBA prospects and grad transfers. Musselman was at the forefront of the grad transfer movement in college basketball when he was at Nevada, and started signing high level high school talent in addition to those transfers.
Musselman’s philosophy is on full display at Arkansas, where the main rotation for the 20th ranked Razorbacks consists of three freshmen, two grad transfers, two former sit-out transfers, and a three-year player in Desi Sills. While some fans and analysts alike questioned Musselman’s ability to recruit and develop high school talent while he was at Nevada, this season the second-year Arkansas head coach is silencing those doubts.
There were seven schools ranked ahead of Arkansas in the 2020 recruiting class. How are their freshmen producing compared to Williams, Moody, and Davis?
Texas Tech
The Red Raiders use the same transfer and high school philosophy Arkansas does, as Beard landed coveted transfers Mac McClung and Marcus Santos-Silva, as well as the 7th ranked recruiting class. The class consisted of three four-stars, two of which were inside the top-40 of the Rivals rankings (Nimari Burnett, Micah Peavy).
Burnett recently entered the transfer portal after making appearances in 12 games, where he averaged 17.7 minutes and 5.3 points. Peavy is still on the team and has cemented himself as a starter, averaging 19.9 minutes and 5.5 points a game. Esahia Nyiwe never appeared in a game and transferred to St. John’s.
The other freshmen, Chibuzo Agbo and Vladislav Goldin, average 5.9 and 5.3 minutes per game, respectively, while appearing in 16 and 6 games.
Tennessee
The Volunteers signed a heralded class that consisted of five-stars Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson alongside four-stars Corey Walker, Jr. and Malachi Wideman, earning them the 6th highest rated recruiting class in the country.
Springer and Johnson have been key to Tennessee’s success this season. Springer is averaging 12.4 points and 3.5 rebounds and playing 24.8 minutes a game, while Johnson is averaging 10.1 and 2.9 in 23.5 minutes. Walker was injured in the pre-season and was recently cleared to play, but has yet to see the floor for the Vols. Wideman signed with the Vols for football, but was also a four-star basketball prospect. He has not seen the floor, either.
Arizona
Sean Miller and the Wildcats signed a whopping seven freshmen to their 2020 recruiting class, boosting their numbers to 5th nationally in the recruiting rankings.
A mixture of unranked international players and high school standouts in the States, the Wildcats heavily rely on three of their freshmen: Azuolas Tubelis, Bennedict Mathurin, and Dalen Terry. Kerr Kriisa joined the mix late this year after being ruled eligible by the NCAA.
Tubelis is the biggest contributor of the group, scoring 12.2 points and adding 6.8 rebounds in 26.4 minutes per game. Mathurin is at 10.7 and 4.3 in 23.9 minutes, and Kriisa is at 5.8 in 21.5 in just six games. Terry averages 4.5 points in 20.9 minutes, although since Kriisa was ruled eligible he has played fewer than 18 minutes in 4 of 6 games.
The other three freshmen have barely appeared, if they’ve played at all.
Auburn
Auburn is another team that signed a big class with five incoming freshmen, including five-star Sharife Cooper, landing them the 4th ranked class in 2020. Because of roster turnover, the Tigers are in a rebuilding year and have one of the youngest rosters in college basketball, with an average of less than a year of experience per player.
Because the roster is so young, freshmen have been given ample opportunity to play. Since Cooper was ruled eligible, he’s played 33.1 minutes a game, while scoring 20.2 points and 8.1 assists per game. Justin Powell and JT Thor also contribute a lot, playing 27.6 and 22.7 minutes, respectively. Powell averages 11.7 points and 6.1 rebounds, while Thor averages 9.4 and 4.8.
The two remaining freshmen, Dylan Cardwell and Chris Moore, are role players but still contribute. Cardwell plays 15.3 minutes and Moore plays 11.0 minutes.
Auburn is ineligible to compete in the NCAA Tournament due to a self-imposed postseason ban, but their record stands at 11-13 (5-10).
North Carolina
A common theme in this piece is inexperienced rosters with large signing classes. It seems odd to see a blue blood outside of Kentucky sign six freshmen in a single class, but North Carolina did just that on their way to the 3rd highest ranked recruiting class.
The Tar Heels signed three five-stars and three four-stars in the 2020 class. Two of the five stars, Caleb Love and Day’Ron Sharpe, are playing 27.6 and 19.9 minutes a game, respectively, while each is scoring right around 10 points per game. RJ Davis and Kerwin Walton are right behind those two in productivity, playing 22.4 and 19.7 minutes per game and scoring 7.9 points per game. Puff Johnson and Walker Kessler play limited roles where each averages fewer than 10 minutes per game.
After a loss to Marquette at home, the Tar Heels find themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Duke
Again, a blue-blood that signed six freshmen in a single class to account for roster turnover. The Blue Devils signed four five-stars and two four-stars to earn the 2nd highest rated recruiting class.
Jalen Johnson recently opted out of the season to prepare for the NBA Draft, while fellow freshmen DJ Steward and Jeremy Roach continue to be mainstays in the Duke rotation. Steward plays 30.5 minutes a game, while scoring 13.4 points and adding 4.1 rebounds. Roach plays 28.8 minutes and averages 9.3 points per game.
Mark Williams, Jaemyn Brakefield, and Henry Coleman each see some sort of playing time, but average just 11.5, 13.2, and 4.4 minutes each.
Duke is 11-8 (9-6) and trying to work its way into the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky
Perhaps the premiere freshman program in college basketball, Kentucky once again signed the top-ranked recruiting class in the country. Their season has not reflected such talent, though.
Before Terrence Clarke’s injury, Kentucky had three freshmen playing 30+ minutes a game. Brandon Boston and Devin Askew each play 30 minutes a game while 11.9 and 8 points per game. Isaiah Jackson averages 20.6 minutes per game. Lance Ware plays 11.9 minutes a game, while Cam’Ron Fletcher has only appeared in 7 games this season. Kentucky is 8-13 (7-7) on the year.
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It is an interesting case study to look at the data in terms of how much freshmen play at each program. College basketball has relied on freshmen to heavily contribute for a while now, though some coaches are more open to the idea than others, even now.
Ranked programs, in the current poll, rely on experience–outside of Arkansas that is. The other schools listed are playing freshmen by necessity and not succeeding at such a high level. Duke and Kentucky are having down years most people haven’t seen in at least a decade, while North Carolina is following up a losing season with a spot firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Auburn has a losing record even with one of the most heralded high school prospects and some other highly ranked freshmen.
The teams who are succeeding who recruited at a high level, like Texas Tech and Tennessee, do not rely on many freshmen at all. Tech has one freshman averaging 19.9 minutes per game and Tennessee has two averaging 24.8 and 23.5 minutes.
Similar teams who finished just behind Arkansas in the recruiting rankings include Arizona State, which is 8-11 with two freshmen averaging 30 minutes and a third averaging 17.8, and Texas A&M. The Aggies signed a top-20 class but only one freshman plays 20 minutes per game. No other freshman has appeared in every game or averages over 14 minutes.
Kansas signed the 14th ranked class but only Bryce Thompson plays double-digit minutes at 17.3. The most minutes for a freshman behind him is 8.4 by Tyon Grant-Foster. Two other freshmen have appeared in fewer than 10 games and average 3.3 or fewer minutes a game.
Musselman was labeled as a coach unwilling to play freshmen when he was hired at Arkansas, a state with a hot-bed of basketball talent. Not only has he played freshmen more than almost every team ranked in the AP-poll experiencing similar degrees of success, but he is relying on them in clutch situations to make shots, rebound, defend, and close out games.