HawgBeat Hoops Mailbag w/ JC Hoops: 2-17

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Another week, another mailbag. Coming off back-to-back losses, I figured the questions for this week would be interesting, and they were.

As always, submit your questions on Twitter on Thursdays under the mailbag tweet under @JacksonCollier. All questions posted on the HawgBeat premium message board, The Trough, are answered, while only a few from Twitter are. Enjoy.

I was personally confused by the decision not to play Nick Smith Jr. more. After playing 17 minutes at home against Mississippi State in his first game back, I was expecting 20-25 minutes for him against Texas A&M. Instead, he only played four and sat the entire second half.

This isn’t me saying that I thought Smith played great in his time on Wednesday - in fact I actually thought he looked average. He still brought a high level of energy and was going all out, but things just weren’t happening. So he sat.

What confuses me the most, though, is the fact that he never got another shot, especially with home much the other guards played. Davonte Davis played 39 minutes, Anthony Black 38 minutes, and Ricky Council IV 36 minutes.

I know the philosophy under Arkansas head coach Eric Musselman has been to limit the bench and rotation and play the players who give the team the best opportunity to win, and I also understand that college kids playing 36+ minutes a game just twice a week is different than a full-length NBA season with multiple games a week, but it was clear Wednesday night that the team was fatigued.

Davis and Council combined for 8-of-25 from the field (32%) and 0-4 from the free throw line. The shooting numbers, in particular from the free throw line, seem uncharacteristic and point towards fatigue to me. It’s a long, physical season and we’re now getting to the home stretch of it.

Why does that matter to Smith’s playing time? Well, I’ve said since it was rumored he was coming back that at the very least his return would benefit backcourt depth by not making guys play so many minutes. That didn’t happen Wednesday night, and I think it hurt the team.

It’s also incredibly difficult as a basketball player to get in a rhythm in short spurts of playing time. It was the same in the first half against Mississippi State, except that Smith came back and logged more minutes in the second half, got some extended run, and started looking more comfortable.

Admittedly, managing the roster when it was playing pretty well and then trying to insert a projected top-pick who might be a little rusty could be a challenge to deal with. However, I think the best way to shake rust off is to let him play.

If the goal is to make a run in March, rather than just make the tournament, to me the best course of action would be to at least try and give Smith some extended run, try to let him find his rhythm, and help some guys get their legs back. Two short, average performances from the McDonald’s All-American don’t have me writing him off by any means, but even as talented as he is, it’s incredibly difficult to integrate yourself back at game speed and game competition. He needs opportunity and chances because practice alone isn’t enough.

As long as the Hogs hold home court, they should be safely in the NCAA Tournament, even with an opening road SEC Tournament loss. They’d likely be a 10 seed, but they’d be in. Luckily for Arkansas, the team’s predictive metrics are strong enough on quality (NET, KenPom, BPI, Sagarin) to make up for a weaker resume with only two quad one wins.

Anything after that is icing on the cake. A win at Alabama or Tennessee could bump them to the 8 or 9 line, but if they just hold home court against Florida, Georgia and Kentucky and win a game or two in the SEC Tournament, I doubt it moves the needle too terribly much.

The thing about the NCAA Tournament this year is that the seed lines from 7 to 11 are pretty weak and volatile. There could be a ton of movement along those lines based upon how teams perform. Arkansas was very much in position to move up to the 5/6 seed line if they beat Mississippi State and Texas A&M and then closed out with three home wins, but now it is more of a necessity to win out at home.

At this point, I wouldn't just assume that would happen, either. Kentucky will come in to Bud Walton for the season finale with their backs against the wall and looking for revenge from Arkansas beating the Wildcats at Rupp Arena.

I think it is a valid question, but I don't necessarily think that's been the case. Any time you have the opportunity to bring back a projected lottery pick and McDonald's All-American into the fold and reincorporate him into the roster for a few weeks before the NCAA Tournament, you do it. That's a risk you take.

While Arkansas was playing well before he came back, winning five straight SEC games and narrowly losing on the road to Baylor, I don't necessarily think the Razorbacks have been a victim of Smith's return.

That five-game SEC winning streak before his return was against: Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, at South Carolina and then at Kentucky. The Texas A&M win was against a solid opponent, but was at home, and the win at Rupp was one of Arkansas' best performances of the year. The others were against the worst teams in the conference.

That's not to say that the team did not improve or that the streak wasn't impressive, but playing a Mississippi State team with one of the best defenses in the country while they were on a winning streak of their own and then going on the road to College Station seemed like an uptick in competition.

For the most part, Arkansas didn't play bad in those games, necessarily, and had opportunities to win them as they have most of the season, but could not finish when they needed to.

This question will be more easily answered moving forward and looking at Smith's playing time and role to end the regular season, particularly in games against Florida without star center Colin Castleton and against Georgia.

I think it's just gotten to the point of the season where Musselman restricts his rotation to his core seven or eight guys, at most. That's been the case the past few seasons and I think it's happening again.

Although, I will say that I think with the talent this roster has, especially with Smith back into the fold, throwing five or ten minutes a game to a ninth option could be beneficial to preserving guys' legs and keeping them from being fatigued.

As I mentioned above, the starting backcourt is logging a ton of minutes, which is one thing at the very least I thought would be fixed by Smith's return. That hasn't happened yet, though.

I would personally like to see some more run from Graham and then let Smith get integrated with the team and shake some rust off. On top of that, throwing a few minutes at freshman Joseph Pinion when the team is struggling to score (like they have the past two games) can't hurt either. He spaces the floor and has proven he can knock down open looks, especially against a zone.

To answer the specific question, though, I think it might be just as simple as it's the time of the year where Musselman shortens his rotation to the guys he really trusts to put the team in the best position to win ball games.

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