Once again we continue our weekly mailbag series answering reader questions.
As always, every question posted on the HawgBeat premium message board, The Trough, is answered, while some of the ones from Twitter are. The questions have been fantastic lately, so keep up the good work down the home stretch of the season!
Who is back next season? - HawgBeat user @NedBeatySquealed
Typically, I don't like commenting on potential transfers out before the season ends, but I have been getting this question A LOT. We touched on it briefly on the Hardwood Hawgs Podcast, but I'll go a little bit more in-depth here:
*note: this is my personal opinion based on individual player's circumstances regarding eligibility, prior transfers, professional prospects, and future role with the team, not necessarily inside information*
Most likely back (75%+):
Davonte Davis
Barry Dunning
Joseph Pinion
Good chance (50-75%):
Derrian Ford
Trevon Brazile
Up in the air (50/50):
Jalen Graham
Less likely (30-50%):
Jordan Walsh
Ricky Council IV
Makhi Mitchell
Makhel Mitchell
No chance:
Nick Smith Jr.
Anthony Black
Kamani Johnson
I know people keep saying we are a lock but let's say we lose Saturday and Thursday in the sec tourney. At best, doesn't that make us a 10 seed and at risk to get knocked out if there are bid stealers that win their conference tourneys? - Twitter user @lt01779796
Losing Saturday and the first game in the SEC Tournament would have Arkansas on the 9/10 seed line, most likely, but there would have to be a bunch of bid stealers.
For those who don't know, a "bid stealer" is a team that wins its conference tournament championship that otherwise would not make the NCAA Tournament field as an at-large bid. Winning the conference tournament grants a team an "automatic bid." Where these teams become "bid stealers" are when they earn an automatic bid but the league leader that was projected to win the conference tournament still makes the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid.
An example would be if South Carolina were to win the SEC Tournament this year, while Alabama still makes it.
The ramifications for these occurrences is that these teams essentially starting chipping away at the teams on the bubble.
Arkansas is secure enough in its spot where they will not be affected most likely. It would take an unheard of amount of bid-stealers for Arkansas not to make the field.
We beat UK and win one in the tourney - what’s our seed in that scenario in your opinion? HawgBeat user @bdjacks
At this rate, I wouldn't be shocked if that was enough to move the needle to the 7 seed line again. It all depends on other teams, too, but with as strong as Arkansas' metrics are and notching another Quad 1 win should boost the resume, as well.
The struggle with Arkansas' seeding is two-fold: (1) the strength of record number and (2) the lack of Quad one wins. The Razorbacks can improve upon both just by beating Kentucky, and can bolster the strength of record metric by winning another game on a neutral floor against a high major opopnent.
It should be noted, too, that Arkansas is benefitting from teams across the country also losing and failing to separate themselves from the pack, so to speak. Throughout the Razorbacks' struggles all season, they have still managed to maintain extremely high metrics considering their record. Credit to coach Anthony Ruta and the rest of the staff for mastering the art of non-conference scheduling in the NET era.
Arkansas has played just two Quad 4 games, one of which being Louisville on a neutral court in the Maui Invitational. Three non-conference games were Quad 1, two were Quad 2, and six were Quad 3, comparatively.
Making a jump to the 7-seed line would be crucial for the Razorbacks. The 8/9 seed line is the most unfortunate in the tournament as an at-large bid. The first matchup is against teams pretty much on the exact same level as each other, while the winner gets a matchup against a top-seed.
Winning against Kentucky and at least one SEC Tournament game: 7 seed
Winning against Kentucky and losing the first SEC Tournament game: 8 seed
Losing against Kentucky and losing the first SEC Tournament game: 9/10 seed
Losing against Kentucky and winning two SEC Tournament games: 8 seed
