HawgBeat Hoops Mailbag w/ JCHoops: 1/27
Continuing our weekly series of answering reader questions. As always, every question posted on The Trough over at HawgBeat.com is answered in detail, while the best questions posted on Twitter are answered.
"How does NSJ coming back affect the rotation? Who loses minutes?" - Twitter user @JudEzra3
To begin, there is nothing official on Nick Smith Jr.'s return - all that we know is that he is with the team and going through the rehabilitation process. He's been on the bench the past two games.
If/when he does come back, the absolute first thing that would improve would be the backcourt depth. Arkansas has experimented with its starting lineup in recent weeks depending on matchup, but it seems the "typical" starting lineup since Trevon Brazile (ACL) and Smith (knee) have been out has been: Anthony Black, Davonte Davis, Ricky Council IV, Jordan Walsh and Makhi Mitchell.
Recently, Joseph Pinion and Derrian Ford have seen an increase of minutes out of necessity. The starting lineup consisting of Arkansas's entire planned backcourt rotation minus an injured piece really stretches the team thin.
Bringing Smith back would insert him into the starting lineup, likely bringing Council off the bench and spreading the minutes to at least one more backcourt piece. While these are college athletes with largely fresh legs, not having an entire backcourt run 35+ minutes or so every night would be greatly beneficial to the team, especially getting into the dog days of the season.
Smith would also add another outside shooter, which, would help even more now that Arkansas has shot well from the perimeter of late. He could also create for himself, facilitate and create for others, and provide a spark and a ton of hype around the program.
For all the things Smith brings on the court, what he would bring emotionally and mentally to the team, the program, and the fanbase would be unparalleled. The season so far has been riddled with "what if" and frustration, but the return of Nick Smith Jr. would provide a spark and a boost of confidence to everyone involved.
As far as who would lose minutes, I would imagine it would be Pinion and Ford, who have been getting some run with the need to space the floor and spell some guards in foul trouble or who need a breather. There would still be a role for Pinion as a spot-up shooter, but Ford might find himself struggling to find minutes upon Smith's return.
"Do we think Ford and Dunning will be back?" - HawgBeat User @Fall'sUncle
Everything I've heard about Dunning is that he is one of the most bought-in on the team. Legitimately one of the harder workers and students of the game and culture, but just hasn't put it all together yet and is dealing with a talent curve.
I do think he sticks around and is a very, very solid 3 and D guy as he progresses throughout his career.
As far as Ford goes, if you put stock into what his dad has put on social media, he is committed to the process, as well. Take that for what it is - I don't have any other information and generally don't like to speculate on whether players will or will not transfer this early in the process.
What are your thoughts on Trevon? Are you leaning towards him staying or leaving ? - HawgBeat user @Sir OinksAlot
I don't have any inside information, but looking at the totality of the circumstances I'd lean more towards him coming back. He was projected at the back-end of the first round when he got injured, and with the injury he is at best in the back part of the second round. Part of that is because I don't think he'll be healthy by the time the combine comes around, so leaving would be him really betting on himself.
If he can get healthy and is willing to come back to try to work into the first round, I think that would make the most sense. If he somehow gets a draft grade at all he might bet on himself and just go ahead and leave.
What are your thoughts on Graham and his playing time? Seems like he's feast or famine. - HawgBeat user @Trips32_10_44
So, he's got the highest usage on the team, meaning when he's on the floor, plays are designed to get him the ball. I talked about this a bit on the Hardwood Hawgs Podcast, but my thoughts are essentially I think he comes in and either starts hot or starts off.
Some games he comes in and immediately plays a good possession of defense and then scores, so he gets to stay in and play a bit. Other times he'll get in and miss a defensive assignment and turn the ball over on offense.
Like you said, it really is feast or famine, and I think Musselman tries to read that early. I'm still an advocate of getting him a little bit of a longer leash, but I think that's the reasoning.
"Barring a bad loss to South Carolina, do you think Arkansas would be safely in the NCAA Tournament with a 9-9 SEC record?" - Twitter user @Hollyislandboy
I would lean towards yes. I'll start my bracketology series again here in the next few weeks and help Arkansas fans with any sort of questions they have regarding seeding and what Arkansas needs to do to stay in the field.
Right now, sitting at 14-6 (3-5), Arkansas is solidly in the field on the seven or eight seed line. A win Saturday would do wonders for moving back into the AP Top 25 (which is irrelevant for seeding purposes), and probably more on the six or seven seed line, but Baylor isn't a "must-win" by any means.
If the Razorbacks do lose against Baylor to drop to 14-7 (3-5), their road ahead is as follows: Texas. A&M (Q2), @ South Carolina (Q4), @ Kentucky (Q1), Mississippi State (Q2), @ Texas A&M (Q1), Florida (Q2), Georgia (Q3), @ Alabama (Q1), @ Tennessee (Q1) and Kentucky (Q2).
The "Q numbers" after each team represents the quadrant game each matchup would fall under if played today. So, as of today, Arkansas has four Q1 opportunities and four Q2 opportunities left in conference play.
If the path to 9-9 in the SEC is something along the lines of holding home court plus stealing a win at Texas A&M or Kentucky, I definitely think that puts Arkansas safely in the tournament field, but at this point it would be difficult to determine what seed line because the NET and quadrants change daily, along with other metrics like KenPom, BPI, Sagarin, etc. That would give them a 20-11 (9-9) record with presumably a solid NET and other metrics.
The Razorbacks did themselves a favor by playing in Maui and winning against tough competition, as well as winning handily against teams like Oklahoma and LSU. Margin of victory no longer applies to NET rankings, but efficiency does. While there is some overlap between the two, there is enough of a differentiation.
Again, I'll be starting my bracketology stuff in the coming weeks, as well, to go more in-depth on all this.