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Heston Kjerstad is expected to join an exclusive list of Arkansas players Wednesday night.
Almost certainly a lock to get taken in the top 15, the Razorbacks’ slugger could become just the fourth top-10 pick in school history when the 2020 MLB Draft gets underway at 6 p.m. CT on the MLB Network and ESPN.
That will be Arkansas’ first domino to fall during the two-day event, which has been shortened from its usual 40 rounds to just five as a way for MLB teams to save money in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Instead of 1,200-plus players, only 160 will be drafted this year. The first 37 picks - covering the first round and Competitive Balance Round A - are Wednesday, followed by the second round and beyond (picks 38-160) beginning at 4 p.m. CT Thursday on the MLB Network and ESPN2.
Despite the reduced picks, Kjerstad is expected to be one of three Arkansas players taken in this year’s draft. Shortstop Casey Martin and catcher Casey Opitz will also likely hear their names called.
What could have a more profound impact on the Razorbacks’ future and what head coach Dave Van Horn will be focused on, though, is how many signees in their touted 2020 class - which is ranked third nationally by Perfect Game - get drafted.
Six of Arkansas’ 18 high school signees are considered consensus top-200 draft prospects, with all of them appearing in the top 100 of at least one notable list. Those players are listed below, as are two others in Baseball America’s list of the top 500 prospects.
Whether or not they get drafted likely has nothing to do with talent, but rather their signability. If teams don’t believe they’ll be able to work out a deal with a player, they are unlikely to use a draft pick on him - particularly with there being so few picks this year.
That could work in the Razorbacks’ favor. Many experts predict the draft to have a heavy college flavor because they might be more willing to sign under slot value, while high school prospects might choose to go to school and try the draft again when things get back to normal in two or three years.
It’s also worth noting that this year’s draftees will initially receive up to only $100,000 of their signing bonuses, with half of the remainder to be paid by July 1, 2021, and the other half by July 1, 2022.
Another adjustment to the draft that will impact the Razorbacks is that undrafted free agents are limited to a maximum $20,000 signing bonus. That rule, coupled with the NCAA’s decision to grant eligibility relief across the board, means several Arkansas players who would have likely been drafted this summer will instead return to Fayetteville in 2021.
Players like Zebulon Vermillion and Matt Goodheart were potential top-10 round picks who could have received signing bonuses 10 times - or more - the amount they’d now be allowed as undrafted free agents.
Even juniors Braydon Webb and Kole Ramage, third-year sophomores Jacob Nesbit and Caleb Bolden, and draft-eligible sophomore Connor Noland could have been picked after the 10th round and received up to $125,000 without it counting toward a team’s bonus pool.
Now those players can play another year with the Razorbacks while maintaining the leverage that comes with remaining collegiate eligibility, granted they’ll each be a year older.
Here’s an overview of the players to keep an eye on during the MLB Draft this week…
Current Razorbacks
Heston Kjerstad - OF
Prospect rank: No. 7 (Fangraphs), No. 9 (ESPN), No. 10 (MLB Pipeline), No. 11 (The Athletic)
Arguably the best slugger in UA history, it took a global pandemic to prevent Kjerstad from shattering the school record for home runs in a three-year career and making a run at the all-time record. Couple that power with incredible consistency - he slashed .343/.421/.590 over his career - and you have a bonafide first-round pick.
Most mock drafts have Kjerstad going to the Pittsburgh Pirates at seventh overall, which would tie Andrew Benintendi for the third highest pick in school history. Only Jeff King (No. 1, 1986) and Kevin McReynolds (No. 6, 1981) have gone higher. Regardless, he’ll become just the ninth first-round pick Arkansas has produced.
Casey Martin - SS/OF
Prospect rank: No. 27 (Baseball America), No. 30 (MLB Pipeline), No. 41 (Fangraphs), No. 42 (The Athletic)
After bursting onto the scene as a freshman in 2018, there was talk about Martin possibly being the top prospect for the 2020 MLB Draft. He was even still considered a possible top-10 pick before the season.
Unfortunately, the issues that plagued him throughout his career with the Razorbacks never really showed significant progress. Even with his junior season shorted to 16 games, Martin managed to strike out more than any other three-year player in UA history. He also committed errors at a high rate, making 43 total and posting a career .913 fielding percentage.
Despite those problems, a team will certainly take a chance on him because he has elite speed and plus-power - even if they move him from shortstop to center field. He also still produced at a high level in the SEC, slashing .310/.389/.542 with 30 home runs and 116 RBIs in 148 career games.
Casey Opitz - C
Prospect rank: No. 101 (Baseball America), No. 129 (ESPN), No. 170 (MLB Pipeline), No. 181 (Fangraphs)
Defensively, you’d be hard pressed to find a better catcher than Opitz. He threw out an incredible 40 percent of potential base stealers during his career - which led to scouts telling Baseball America he had the best catcher arm in the country - and allowed only two passed balls as the full-time starter last season. He’s also been known to steal strikes for pitchers as an excellent receiver.
The only question surrounding Opitz is whether or not he’ll hit well enough to stay in a lineup. He’s known for being patient and having a good eye at the plate and even has a knack for delivering in the clutch, but he still hit just .243/.379/.311 last year. The shortened season probably hurt Opitz because he packed on weight and added some power this season, but never got to fully showcase his improvements. In a small sample size, he slashed .302/.361/.509 with more extra-base hits (eight) than he had all of last year (six).
Although some outlets have him ranked outside of the top 160 draft prospects, Van Horn has remained confident that Opitz will be drafted. Look no further than the fact Arkansas has added two graduate transfer catchers this offseason as evidence of that confidence.
2020 Signees
Masyn Winn - SS/RHP - Kingwood (Texas)
Recruit rank: No. 18
Draft prospect rank: No. 39 (ESPN/Fangraphs), No. 42 (CBS Sports), No. 44 (Baseball America)
The top signee and draft prospect in Arkansas’ class, Winn is a legitimate two-way player who scouts don’t even know whether he projects better as a pitcher or a shortstop. He originally committed to Stanford, but re-opened his recruitment in the summer of 2018 and eventually landed with Arkansas in October of that year.
On the mound, Winn has touched 98 miles per hour on his fastball and typically sits 92-96 mph with a high spin rate - which also helps his curveball. At the plate, he could still be a little more consistent, but has a lot of raw power. His arm is a plus as a shortstop, as is his quickness.
As a junior at Kingwood High outside of Houston, he was named the District 22-6A MVP after going 13-0 with a 0.67 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 76 1/3 innings as a pitcher and hitting .417 with eight home runs and 46 RBIs as a shortstop.
David Calabrese - OF - Ontario (Canada) St. Elizabeth Catholic
Recruit rank: No. 127
Draft prospect rank: No. 19 (The Athletic), No. 68 (Baseball America), No. 86 (ESPN), No. 97 (MLB Pipeline)
One of the younger prospects in the class, Calabrese was originally a 2021 prospect before reclassifying to 2020 and he won’t turn 18 until late September. That makes him especially intriguing to MLB teams who value age.
His biggest tool is undoubtedly his elite speed. Some scouts have graded him a perfect 80 in that area and he was clocked at 6.28 seconds in the 60-yard dash in February - which is even faster than Casey Martin. That athleticism makes him even more attractive to the pros, as he can likely develop the other areas of his game.
Markevian “Tink” Hence - RHP - Watson Chapel (Ark.)
Recruit rank: No. 60
Draft prospect rank: No. 41 (The Athletic), No. 73 (ESPN), No. 76 (Fangraphs), No. 84 (MLB Pipeline)
READ: HawgBeat 2020 Signee Spotlight
Hence is another player whose age works in his favor for the MLB Draft, as he won’t turn 18 until August. It also helps that he has a fastball that already touches 96 mph and a frame (6-1, 172) that projects additional velocity as he gets older and stronger.
As a junior at Watson Chapel, he posted a 0.64 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings. He followed that up by not allowing an earned run, racking up 41 strikeouts and walking just four in 18 innings across four appearances with the Arkansas Sticks during the summer.
Cayden Wallace - 3B - Greenbrier (Ark.)
Recruit rank: No. 23
Draft prospect rank: No. 55 (ESPN/Fangraphs), No. 113 (MLB Pipeline), No. 139 (Baseball America)
READ: HawgBeat 2020 Signee Spotlight
One of the best in-state players to come through Arkansas recently, Wallace is a legitimate five-star prospect. He was a Perfect Game and Under Armor All-American last season, when he hit .514/.640/1.027 with six doubles, seven triples and six home runs.
This season, Wallace was off to an 11-for-22 (.500) start that included six extra-base hits (three doubles, two triples and one home run) and seven RBIs in eight games before the season was canceled. That helped him earned Gatorade Player of the Year honors for Arkansas.
A shortstop at Greenbrier, he projects as a third baseman at the next level. That position should showcase Wallace’s strong arm, which has touched 93 mph when he’s pitched.
Nate Wohlgemuth - RHP - Owasso (Okla.)
Recruit rank: No. 42
Draft prospect rank: No. 86 (Fangraphs), No. 98 (ESPN), No. 109 (Baseball America), No. 178 (MLB Pipeline)
READ: HawgBeat 2020 Signee Spotlight
Although he’s signed with Arkansas as a two-way player and was hitting .435/.567/.870 through nine games when this season was canceled, Wohlgemuth is on professional scouts’ radars as a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher.
He touched 96 mph as a freshman at Owasso and has recently touched 98 mph while consistently sitting in the 93-95 mph range. That velocity has made him a prospect, but command issues have plagued him throughout his high school career. However, Wohlgemuth has shown progress in that area, as evidenced by his legendary 14-strikeout no-hitter at the WWBA Championships last October.
It’s also worth noting that he would be a draft-eligible sophomore if he chose to come to Arkansas.
Nick Griffin - LHP - Monticello (Ark.)
Recruit rank: No. 87
Draft prospect rank: No. 83 (Fangraphs), No. 138 (MLB Pipeline), No. 143 (ESPN), No. 189 (Baseball America)
READ: HawgBeat 2020 Signee Spotlight
Another two-way signee for the Razorbacks, Griffin is considered one of the top high school left-handed pitchers in this class. His fastball tops out at 94 mph and usually sits in the 89-92 mph range, but even after putting on 15 pounds since the end of his junior year, his 6-foot-4 frame can support more than his current 185 pounds.
That projectability, coupled with him being a lefty, makes him an intriguing prospect. He’s also pretty young, not turning 18 until Wednesday - the first day of the draft. Griffin put on a show at the Future Stars Series at Fenway Park in September, as well, striking out five of the 14 batters he faced.
Jaxon Wiggins - RHP - Roland (Okla.)
Recruit rank: No. 135
Draft prospect rank: No. 262 (Baseball America)
Had he chosen to pursue it, Wiggins likely could have been a Division I basketball player. He averaged a double-double each of the last two seasons, broke his school’s single-season record for rebounds and blocked shots, and threw down 40 dunks - many of which were highlight-worthy.
Instead, baseball is his future. An all-star selection as an outfielder, Wiggins will focus on pitching at the next level. The 6-foot-5 right-hander’s fastball was clocked at 95 mph last month and he also likes throwing a cutter.
Michael Brooks - SS - Wellington (Fla.) Palm Beach Central
Recruit rank: No. 86
Draft prospect rank: No. 350 (Baseball America)
READ: HawgBeat 2020 Signee Spotlight
Originally a Mississippi State commit, Brooks re-opened his recruitment when Andy Cannizaro resigned early in 2018 season. The Razorbacks immediately reached out and ended up landing his commitment a couple of months later.
The middle infielder from Florida has good speed (6.61 in the 60) and hit .457/.549/.827 with six home runs and 31 RBIs in 30 games as a junior, when he helped his high school reach the semifinals in Florida’s largest classification.
Former Razorbacks
Bryce Bonnin - RHP - Texas Tech
Prospect rank: No. 74 (The Athletic), No. 102 (Baseball America), No. 121 (MLB Pipeline), No. 148 (ESPN)
A member of Arkansas’ touted 2017 class that also featured Kjerstad, Martin and Opitz, Bonnin posted a 4.26 ERA with 16 strikeouts and 12 walks in 19 innings across 11 appearances as a freshman on the 2018 national runner-up team.
However, he transferred to Texas Tech following the season and was granted immediate eligibility. Despite a rough start to the season, Bonnin settled in and posted a 2.19 ERA over his final seven starts. He held opponents to a .223 batting average, but also walked 45 in 64 innings.
Before this season was canceled, Bonnin had a much more respectable 27-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 2/3 innings across four starts, but opponents hit .297 against him and he posted a 7.36 ERA.
Alerick Soularie - OF - Tennessee
Prospect rank: No. 105 (MLB Pipeline), No. 175 (Baseball America), No. 180 (Fangraphs)
This name may not ring a bell because he never actually suited up for the Razorbacks, but Soularie was originally part of that 2017 class, too. After signing, though, he opted to take the JUCO route so he could reunite with Tony Vitello, the Arkansas assistant who left to take the Tennessee job.
Following an All-American campaign at JUCO power San Jacinto, Soularie joined the Volunteers and became a first-team All-SEC selection. He hit .357/.466/.602 with 11 home runs and 46 RBIs last season. Although his batting average dipped to .267, Soularie had five home runs and 17 RBIs through 16 games when this season was canceled.