HawgBeat's coverage of the Razorbacks' Road to Redemption in Omaha is brought to you by Arkansas Oral Surgery, which has offices located in Conway and Russellville.
Regardless of how it goes, this will be the final weekend of baseball at Baum-Walker Stadium. Whoever wins the best-of-three Fayetteville Super Regional between Arkansas and Ole Miss will advance to the College World Series in Omaha, while the loser will be done for the season.
Here is a preview of the series...
Schedule (TV)
Saturday, June 8 - 11 a.m. CT (ESPN)
Sunday, June 9 - 2 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
*Monday, June 10 - 3 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
*if necessary
All three games will be televised on one of the ESPN channels, with Clay Matvick and Todd Walker on the call. They’ll also be available online on ESPN3.com and the WatchESPN app.
Many fans are upset none of the games will be at night and that Saturday’s will actually start before noon, but the start time doesn’t seem to bother head coach Dave Van Horn or the players.
“It doesn’t matter at this time of year to the players,” Van Horn said. “I mean, there are 15 teams left. If they tell us we’ve got to play at 5 a.m., we’ll play at 5 a.m.”
Weather Report
After a couple day of rain in Northwest Arkansas, it looks like Arkansas and Ole Miss will get to play in some nice weather this weekend.
According to the Weather Channel, it will be sunny with temperatures in the upper-70s at first pitch of Game 1. There is no chance of rain and a high of 81 degrees.
The weather will be similar for Sunday, but a temperature of 82 at first pitch with some clouds. Monday’s high is 76 degrees with a 10 percent chance of precipitation.
Arkansas’ Starting Rotation (season stats)
Saturday - R-Jr. RHP Isaiah Campbell (16 games/16 starts, 11-1, 2.27 ERA, 108 K/19 BB, 103 IP)
Sunday/Monday - Fr. RHP Connor Noland (18 games/17 starts, 3-4, 3.56 ERA, 53 K/13 BB, 73 1/3 IP)
-OR- Fr. LHP Patrick Wicklander (21 games/14 starts, 6-2, 4.29 ERA, 88 K/36 BB, 65 IP)
The only part of Arkansas’ starting rotation that is set in stone is Campbell getting the nod in Game 1. He’ll have a normal week of rest, as his start in the Fayetteville Regional was also on Saturday.
That happened to be arguably the best outing of his career, as well. He limited TCU’s talented offense to only one earned run on four hits and one walk while striking out eight to improve to 11-1.
The Razorbacks have a pair of freshmen behind him, but it is unknown who will start Game 2 and the if-necessary Game 3. Both pitched well in the regional and Van Horn is leaving his options open, waiting until after the first game to make a decision.
“They’ve had growing pains throughout the year, ups and downs, but they’re finally hitting their stride at the right time,” Campbell said. “They’ve been very consistent these past couple of weeks.”
Scouting the Opponent
Ole Miss’ starting rotation
Saturday - Jr. RHP Will Ethridge (16 games/15 starts, 7-6, 2.91 ERA, 71 K/22 BB, 89 2/3 IP)
Sunday - Fr. LHP Doug Nikhazy (19 games/13 starts, 8-3, 2.98 ERA, 78 K/32 BB, 84 2/3 IP)
Monday - Fr. RHP Gunnar Hoglund (16 games/15 starts, 3-2, 4.64 ERA, 52 K/13 BB, 66 IP)
Van Horn, on Ethridge: “His fastball is going to be anywhere from 89 to 95, probably 94, a little bit of sink and a lot of run. The ball runs in to righties and away from lefties. Pretty good breaker, throws a changeup. … He brings maturity to the first game of a series and he throws a lot of strikes.”
Van Horn, on Nikhazy: “To me he’s the best freshman pitcher in the league. I actually voted for him as freshman player of the year. He didn’t get it, they gave it to Mississippi State’s pitcher, but that’s the way I felt because I’ve watched him against us, I’ve watched him against other teams… He pitches like he’s 21, 22 years old.”
Ole Miss’ starting lineup
C - Cooper Johnson (jr.): .265/.369/.434, 12 2B, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 28 BB/43 K, 3-5 SB, 23-41 SBA
1B - Cole Zabowski (jr.): .316/.371/.512, 16 2B, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 19 BB/58 K, 7-7 SB
2B - Jacob Adams (sr.): .222/.369/.259, 5 2B, 19 RBI, 26 BB/35 K, 4-7 SB
3B - Tyler Keenan (so.): .279/.421/.492, 7 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 48 BB/47 K, 2-3 SB
SS - Grae Kessinger (jr.): .332/.427/.458, 18 2B, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 40 BB/32 K, 16-19 SB
LF - Thomas Dillard (jr.): .312/.451/.541, 10 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 58 BB/50 K, 14-17 SB
CF - Ryan Olenek (sr.): .342/.416/.428, 14 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 32 RBI, 15 BB/21 K, 10-15 SB
RF - Anthony Servideo (so.): .290/.432/.395, 10 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 46 BB/52 K, 23-24 SB
DH - Kevin Graham (fr.): .259/.331/.531, 7 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 13 BB/39 K
Van Horn: “Their lineup is very explosive. They can put up some runs real quick like they did this past week. I know for their three games, they hit .400 as a team, which is pretty amazing.”
Notable: He started only one of the Oxford Regional games, but Tim Elko came in as a pinch hitter and remained in the other two games as the designated hitter and went 5 for 7 with two walks despite coming into the weekend with a .155 batting average.
In the MLB Draft
Between the two teams, there will be 15 draftees playing in the Fayetteville Super Regional. Here is a look at all of them…
Arkansas
~Dominic Fletcher: Diamondbacks - 2nd round (CBB), 75th pick
~Isaiah Campbell: Mariners - 2nd round (CBB), 76th pick
~Matt Cronin: Nationals - 4th round, 123rd pick
~Jack Kenley: Tigers - 8th round, 232nd pick
~Jacob Kostyshock: Rockies - 8th round, 249th pick
~Cody Scroggins: Red Sox - 9th round, 287th pick
~Zack Plunkett: Dodgers - 20th round, 611th pick
Ole Miss
~Grae Kessinger: Astros - 2nd round, 68th pick
~Will Ethridge: Rockies - 5th round, 159th pick
~Thomas Dillard: Brewers - 5th round, 163rd pick
~Cooper Johnson: Tigers - 6th round, 172nd pick
~Parker Caracci: Blue Jays - 21st round, 627th pick
~Cole Zabowski: Tigers - 22nd round, 652nd pick
~Zack Phillips: Royals - 27th round, 799th pick
~Houston Roth: Orioles - 29th round, 858th pick
Regular-Season Matchups
Arkansas is guaranteed to at least tie its school record for the most times playing a single opponent in a season, which it set last year against South Carolina. If the Fayetteville Super Regional goes a full three games, the Razorbacks will break that record with eight matchups against Ole Miss this season.
“We’re worried about tendencies and signs and different things,” Van Horn said. “Sometimes they switch it up a little bit and change an indicator or whatever the case may be, but it really just boils down to making pitches and fielding and hitting. Whoever plays the best will win the series.”
Here’s a look back at the first five games between the two teams…
March 29 - Arkansas 5, Ole Miss 3
Campbell was phenomenal in the first meeting, retiring nine of the first 10 and nine of the last 10 batters he faced. In between, he gave up a couple of earned runs, but he made it through the seventh for the Razorbacks and Cronin closed it out with a five-out save.
March 30 - Ole Miss 4, Arkansas 3
Kenley and Christian Franklin gave the Razorbacks a 3-1 lead with a pair of fourth-inning home runs, but the Rebels answered with solo shots by Keenan and Zabowski over the next two innings.
It was still tied heading into the ninth and Arkansas was one out away from keeping it that way for its final at bat when Kessinger delivered the game-winning RBI double off Kevin Kopps.
March 31 - Ole Miss 10, Arkansas 5
In the rubber match, the Razorbacks managed to tie the game and take the lead in the middle innings, but each time, their bullpen gave it right back to the Rebels. Three runs off Kopps in the sixth and three runs off Zebulon Vermillion in the seventh helped Ole Miss become the first opponent to win a series at Baum-Walker Stadium since 2017, when it also won two of three games in Fayetteville.
May 22 - Arkansas 5, Ole Miss 3
The Rebels survived the single-elimination round with a close win over Missouri to set up another game with Arkansas at the SEC Tournament. Wicklander gave up just one hit in the first four innings, but Ole Miss tagged him for two runs to tie it up in the fifth.
After the Rebels took the lead in the top of the seventh, the Razorbacks responded with a two-out, two-run single by Kenley to put them up for good. Cronin slammed the door with a four-out save in which he struck out all four batters he faced.
May 24 - Ole Miss 3, Arkansas 2
Matt Goodheart’s two-run home run in the fourth inning looked like it might be enough for Arkansas to advance to the semifinals in Hoover. However, it called on Cronin for a five-out save and he allowed both inherited runners in the eighth to score on an RBI single by Dillard and sacrifice fly by Kessinger.
Recent History
Although LSU gets the most attention as being Arkansas’ kryptonite in baseball, Ole Miss has had just about as much success against the Razorbacks.
The Razorbacks have won just one of the last eight and five of the 17 total regular-season series against the Rebels since Van Horn took over in 2003. That stretch includes Arkansas’ last two series losses at Baum-Walker Stadium.
“They’re the team that we, for some reason and give them credit, we haven’t played well against them,” Van Horn said. “They’ve pitched us well, they’ve hit us well and we’ve got to try to flip that or we won’t get out of here.”
However, Van Horn doesn’t put too much stock into recent history. He had the same attitude against LSU last month, when they won a series against the Tigers for just the third time in 17 years.
“I’m sure it does give them confidence, but like I say all the time, especially this time of year, it’s really about us,” Van Horn said. “If we do what we can do, then we have a chance to win the series.”
Arkansas Connection
Three players on Ole Miss’ team claim hometowns in Arkansas, with the most notable being Jacob Adams. The Conway native was committed to the Razorbacks at one point, but ended up going the JUCO route. After two years at Crowder C.C., Adams joined the Rebels and has been their primary starting second baseman the last two seasons.
The other two Arkansans are both left-handed pitchers: freshman Kaleb Hill from Watson Chapel and junior Zack Phillips from Texarkana.
Hill has a 7.94 ERA in 11 1/3 innings across 13 relief appearances, with his last coming against Georgia at the SEC Tournament. It’s been more than two months since he pitched a full inning.
Phillips has been used much more frequently, even starting against the Razorbacks in Hoover. He has a 5.19 ERA in 59 innings this season, with 13 of his 18 appearances being starts. However, it’s worth noting that he played his high school ball at Texas High, even though his hometown is listed as Texarkana, Ark.
Stat of the Week
One of the biggest stories of the Fayetteville Regional was how well Arkansas pitched in its three games. Half of the runs it allowed came on Central Connecticut’s three-run home run off Marshall Denton when the game was already pretty much in hand.
Even with that, the Razorbacks combined for a 1.67 ERA and held their three opponents to a .147 batting average. Take out Denton’s two innings of work, though, and those numbers drop to a minuscule 0.72 ERA and .128 opponents’ batting average.
Arkansas’ pitching staff has a big challenge ahead of it because Ole Miss has one of the hottest offenses in the country. In their regional, the Rebels hit .404 and their opponents had a combined 12.12 ERA. That batting average - and their .527 on-base percentage and .675 slugging percentage - were the best among NCAA Tournament teams in the regionals.
Stat Comparison - Arkansas | Ole Miss (national rank, out of 297 teams)
RPI: No. 6 | No. 22
Batting average: .299 (19th) | .284 (67th)
Slugging percentage: .490 (10th) | .434 (63rd)
On-base percentage: .397 (21st) | .393 (27th)
Home runs: 81 (t-11th) | 68 (t-30th)
Runs/game: 7.5 (18th) | 7.1 (31st)
ERA: 3.84 (41st) | 4.23 (69th)
WHIP: 1.24 (12th) | 1.33 (39th)
Strikeouts/9 innings: 9.6 (23rd) | 8.6 (79th)
Strikeout-to-walk ratio: 2.59 (27th) | 2.66 (22nd)
Fielding percentage: .971 (112th) | .978 (26th)
Stolen bases/game: 1.26 (78th) | 1.42 (60th)
