HawgBeat's 10 burning questions facing the 2020 Diamond Hogs
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The spring semester at the University of Arkansas is underway, which means another baseball season is just around the corner.
In fact, Tuesday marks exactly one month out from the Razorbacks hosting Eastern Illinois at Baum-Walker Stadium.
Head coach Dave Van Horn is trying to reach the College World Series for a third straight year and the seventh time in his 18th season at the helm.
However, between now and that Feb. 14 opener, the veteran coach and his staff must answer a few critical questions that will likely dictate how how success the Razorbacks are in 2020.
Here are HawgBeat’s 10 burning questions facing the Diamond Hogs going into this season…
1. When will an ace emerge?
You’d be hard pressed to find a team with a more seamless transition from one ace to the next than what Arkansas experienced with Blaine Knight in 2018 and Isaiah Campbell in 2019. Combined, the Friday night starters went 26-1 with a 2.46 ERA, 227 strikeouts and only 47 walks.
Unlike those two years, though, there isn’t an obvious ace going into the 2020 season. Instead, there are two likely options: right-hander Connor Noland and left-hander Patrick Wicklander. Both pitchers were named to the SEC All-Freshman Team last year as they followed Campbell in the weekend rotation.
Noland showcased great command and looked every bit the part of an ace when he threw 7 2/3 shutout innings against Mississippi State’s potent offense, while Wicklander averaged an impressive 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings and held opponents to a .204 batting average.
Van Horn told the media in November that he still didn’t know which one of them would be the Friday night guy and admitted that they might not be as dominant as Knight and Campbell, but he was still confident that Noland and Wicklander each gave the Razorbacks an excellent opportunity to win a series.
2. Do the Hogs have a No. 3 starter?
The next logical question, of course, would be, “Who gets the ball after Noland and Wicklander?” There are several options for the Razorbacks, including a pair of veterans.
Kevin Kopps will probably get the first crack at it, as he was impressive enough in the fall to earn the starting nod in Arkansas’ scrimmages against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The right-hander from Texas was impressive out of the bullpen last season, posting a 3.69 ERA in 41 2/3 innings across 30 appearances in his first season after having Tommy John surgery. This will be his fifth season with the Razorbacks, but Kopps has started only five games in his career - all as a redshirt freshman in 2017.
Another option is junior Kole Ramage. Although he’s mostly been used as a long reliever during his first two years in Fayetteville, the right-hander has also made four starts. Ramage is coming off a rough sophomore season in which he posted a 5.25 ERA, but Van Horn is expecting him to put it all together in his draft-eligible season, similar to Jacob Kostyshock - who, granted, did it out of the bullpen - last year.
The Razorbacks could also go with a young arm. Sophomore left-hander Caden Monke made a big jump during fall ball and will be a factor on the mound in some role, while right-hander Blake Adams is their top-ranked 2019 signee and impressed the coaching staff with his increased velocity once he got on campus.
Another name that hasn’t been mentioned much is redshirt sophomore Caleb Bolden, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander had some pretty good midweek starts as a true freshman in 2018 before his injury started affecting him.
3. Who’s on first?
The last few offseasons at Arkansas have felt like an Abbott and Costello sketch, as question marks surrounded who will play first base.
Jordan McFarland, who Van Horn gave plenty of chances to win the job, has transferred to Missouri State for his final season. Last year, a converted second baseman - Trevor Ezell - filled in a week before the season started and was named to the SEC All-Defensive Team, but he graduated.
Van Horn had hoped Matt Goodheart would transition from designated hitter to first base this fall. Unfortunately, offseason shoulder surgery kept him off the field and it’s unclear if he’ll be healthy enough to play in the field to start the season.
Heston Kjerstad is a guy who’s been mentioned as a possibility at first base since before last season. He may get a shot, but expect him to primarily stick to right field. Arizona State graduate transfer Cole Austin made some great plays at third base in the fall, but got some work at first in the team’s first practice back from break, as did freshman Cason Tollett. Another wildcard could be Jacob Nesbit, who seems to be more of a candidate at second or third, but was listed at first base in D1Baseball’s breakdown of the Razorbacks.
It’s clear that Arkansas needs the next month - and maybe longer - to figure out who will be its first baseman this season.
4. How quickly will Robert Moore adjust to college?
Arkansas’ 2020 signing class is loaded with the equivalent of four- and five-star prospects. The only issue will be getting them to campus, as high school players have the option of getting drafted and immediately beginning their professional careers.
One key player in that class has already enrolled at Arkansas, deciding to skip his senior season of high school ball to get a jump on his college career. By doing so, Robert Moore becomes one of the highest ranked recruits to actually play for the Razorbacks, as he is ranked 20th nationally by Perfect Game.
Of course, it’s quite the jump from high school to the SEC - unquestionably the best conference in college baseball. The son of Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore, he is probably better suited to make that jump than most. Moore has traveled the country and played against the best competition possible, sometimes in big league ballparks.
That said, he’ll be trying to figure out how to hit SEC pitching when most kids are worried about who they’re taking the prom. If he can make that adjustment quickly, then there’s a good chance he works his way into a starting job, or at least a rotation, at second base.
5. Can Jacob Nesbit and Christian Franklin make a second-year jump?
Last season, Arkansas’ lineup benefitted from Jack Kenley coming seemingly out of nowhere to hit .311 with 13 home runs and 54 RBIs. That was a little bit different because he was going into his draft-eligible junior season, but the Razorbacks would love to see a sophomore jump - rather than sophomore slump - out of Jacob Nesbit and Christian Franklin.
Both players flashed potential defensively last season and could - or likely, in Franklin’s case - be asked to play different positions in 2020. They also had their moments at the plate, but were clearly two of the three weakest spots in Arkansas’ lineup - with the third being catcher Casey Opitz.
Franklin hit .274 with six home runs - most of them to the opposite field - and 34 RBIs, while Nesbit hit .255 with three home runs and 42 RBIs. Both struggled with strikeouts, particularly Franklin, and could benefit from some added strength this offseason, particularly Nesbit.
Even if it’s not as drastic of a jump as Kenley, the Razorbacks could use the additional firepower in its lineup this year.
6. Will Casey Martin polish his game?
During the first two years of his career, Martin showcased enough raw tools to be a projected first-round draft pick coming into this season. However, there are two obvious areas of his game that, if fixed, could make him one of the best players in the country.
First, the junior from Lonoke needs to reduce his errors in the field. He has great range and made some tremendous plays at shortstop last year, but also committed an SEC-high 23 errors - eight more than anyone else in the conference - for an ugly .912 fielding percentage. A lot of those mistakes, though, came on routine plays that he booted or sailed over the first baseman’s head.
Because of that, Van Horn is comfortable with leaving him at shortstop and it’s not too much of a stretch to think he can cut them down dramatically in 2020, as they weren’t errors made because of physical limitations.
Secondly, Martin experienced a severe sophomore slump. Although he increased his extra-base hits from 27 to 40, his batting averaged dipped from a team-high .345 in 2018 to .286 last season. One reason for that was his school-record 79 strikeouts.
Martin will likely still strikeout a lot this year because that’s just the kind of player he is, but better plate discipline - specifically against curveballs and other off speed stuff - would help his average skyrocket. That would also mean he’s on base more, where he could better utilize his elite speed.
7. Who will be the closer?
In addition to losing the front end of its rotation in Campbell, the Razorbacks must also replace their All-American closer, Matt Cronin. He is arguably the best closer in school history, having broken the single-season saves record in 2018 and finished second on the career list.
His high spin-rate fastball seemingly rose as it approached the plate, making it really tough for opponents to hit it. That’s not exactly an easy thing to replace and there’s a chance Van Horn approaches it with a committee.
Junior Zebulon Vermillion had a really good fall, throwing a fastball that touched 95 miles per hour and adding an out pitch - a cutter that moves. Sophomore Elijah Trest is another guy who throws the ball hard, hitting 96 miles per hour in the fall with the potential to throw harder.
Ramage is could also finish games as a long reliever if he isn’t used as a starter or middle reliever.
8. How deep is the bench?
One of the more interesting aspects of the 2019 Razorbacks was that they used virtually the same starting lineup every week. Starters emerged early, stayed healthy and locked down their positions.
By the end of the season, Arkansas used only four different players off its bench - Curtis Washington Jr., Zack Plunkett, Trey Harris and McFarland. Will that number be larger in 2020?
Plunkett graduated, so Casey Opitz will need a backup to provide some rest during midweek games or doubleheaders. Freshman Dominic Tamez seems to be the frontrunner to be the backup catcher and might even be in the mix at designated hitter if Goodheart plays first. Tollett can also catch, but is one of the players getting work at first.
McFarland transferred, but Washington and Harris were freshmen. Did they improve enough over the offseason to ensure they’ll get at bats this year? Or will some of the newcomers - like freshman Jesse Pierce or redshirt freshman Zack Gregory - surpass them in the pecking order?
9. Where will the freshmen fit on the pitching staff?
Adams was mentioned as a potential weekend starter in Question 2, but if he doesn’t earn one of those spots, there’s a good chance he could become a midweek starter and a key bullpen arm on the weekends.
The Springdale Har-Ber product has seen his velocity get into the mid-90s, plus he has a good curveball and is developing a changeup. Throw in his excellent command he he has starter stuff. It’s also likely that Adams will get even better as the season progresses because he’s expected to focus on pitching after going through fall as a two-way player.
Another couple of guys to keep an eye on are fellow in-state prospects Peyton Pallette and Zack Morris. Pallette is a hard-throwing right-hander out of Benton, while Morris is a left-hander out of Cabot who sits in the low-90s with good movement and impressed coaches during the fall.
Don’t be surprised if they or another freshman or two emerge as bullpen arms asked to eat some innings at some point this season.
10. Does Arkansas have what it takes to make it to Omaha for a third straight year?
The answers to the first nine questions will go a long way in answering this one, but it’s obviously what everyone wants to know. The way Van Horn has built this program, reaching the College World Series has become more of an expectation than a goal.
However, it should be cautioned that making it through a regional and super regional is not something to take for granted. Even with legendary coaches like Norm DeBriyn and Van Horn, it took the Razorbacks all of five decades to achieve their first back-to-back trips.
There are definitely some holes that need to be filled and questions that need answered, but will this team not only have the physical ability, but mental toughness required to go through the grind of SEC play and the postseason? With Van Horn at the helm, it’s easy to be optimistic, but every year is different.