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If both teams were at full strength, I think it’d be a true toss-up and might lean toward Penn State because of its elite defense. However, as we all know, that’s not the case. Opt-outs are a major factor in the Outback Bowl and they have hit the Nittany Lions much harder than the Razorbacks.

While Arkansas will be without Treylon Burks and Tre Williams, Penn State is down five key defensive starters and star wide receiver Jahan Dotson. After really diving into it, that gives the Razorbacks a significant advantage, in my opinion.

With a dominant rushing attack, I feel like Arkansas should be able to run at will and control the clock. However, throughout history, the Razorbacks haven’t particularly fared well in bowls - especially against Big Ten teams and in Florida. That gives me some pause, but I think Arkansas still gets it done.

This is an interesting matchup between two teams that have had their best players on both sides of the ball opt out. Fortunately for Arkansas, only two Hogs — Treylon Burks and Tre Williams — have opted out.

The Nittany Lions have lost six players to opt-outs and five of them were on the defensive side of the ball. Arkansas’ offense ran through Burks this year, so the missing key players for Penn State bodes well for the Razorback offense.

Arkansas does not have a good history in Florida bowl games or against Big 10 teams. I think those things will change in the Outback Bowl. The Hogs were two scores away from having 10 wins in the SEC this season and Penn State really fell apart late in the year. The Hogs should be able to run the ball with ease and hopefully some of the young pass catchers shine bright in this one.

This matchup should be at the forefront of competition committee meetings over the offseason. Programs from the two best divisions in the country, whose strengths are countered by the other’s weaknesses.

I truly believe that this game - with both teams entering at full strength - had the potential to be one of the season’s best bowls. Unfortunately for the viewers, a slew of opt-outs have put somewhat of a damper (as much as a team playing in Florida on New Year’s Day) on the on-field product.

Arkansas has lived and died with the run game this season, and Penn State happens to be the same team that gave up 357 yards to Illinois. In fact, this version of Penn State is missing five defensive starters - including star safety Jaquan Brisker and stud linebackers Brandon Smith and Ellis Brooks. Without the offensive force that is Jahan Dotson, I simply don’t see how the Nittany Lion offense can match the production I’m expecting to see from the Razorback rushing attack.

NittanyNation.com is the Penn State site in the Rivals network.

This is going to be an interesting one for Penn State as they will be without their top player on offense in Jahan Dotson as well as several starters on the defensive side of the ball as well.

Now this Arkansas team is pretty damn talented, there is no denying that as they have multiple ranked wins as well as some hard fought games versus the likes of Alabama and Ole Miss. However they too are also missing a few key starters, including their top receiver Trelon Burks and sack leader Tre Williams.

With all that being said, I think the Nittany Lions find a way to pull this one out. This is a team that has fought tooth and nail all season long and despite taking some shots to the chin, have bounced back time and time again. I think Sean Clifford proves his worth and shows why he is the solidified starter heading into 2022, tossing a few scores as Penn State walks away a 7-10 point victor in this one.

I don't think Penn State laying an egg is going to be an issue the way it was against Kentucky in 2019. A lot of players have been given chances to shine and will want to make a good impression headed into the offseason and subsequently the 2022 season.

The problem, however, is that eventually the lack of quality depth on defense is just too much to handle. Penn State is down 3/4 of its starting defensive line from the season opener. It's down 2/3 of its starting linebacking corps, and it could well be down 3/4 of its starting defensive backfield if Ji'Ayir Brown and Tariq Castro-Fields don't play.

That's just an absurd amount of attrition. I know Arkansas is missing two really impactful players in Burks and Williams, particularly the former, but I just think Penn State's attrition will be far too much to deal with.

Saturday's Outback Bowl will be an intriguing game to watch from a purely analytical and objective standpoint. Penn State is dealing with bowl opt-outs for the first time and it will leave them with four of their top defensive players and their top weapon offensively.

While the Nittany Lions are talented and have depth at a few positions that should allow them to have a chance to win this game, I'm not sure they'll have the experience needed to ultimately pull out a victory.

Arkansas missing Burks is a huge win for Penn State but as Clay mentioned above, missing potentially nine of your starting 11 from the season opener is just a ridiculous amount of attrition to make up for.

While the opportunity for young guys to get some serious playing time will be beneficial heading into 2022, it could also create quite a few issues for the Nittany Lions on Saturday. I think the offense will be able to keep the game close for the most part but I'm not quite sure the depleted defense will be able to ultimately get enough stops in this one.

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