HawgBeat Staff Predictions: Arkansas at Mississippi State

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The Arkansas Razorbacks and No. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs will face off at 11 a.m. CT Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi.

The Razorbacks lead Mississippi State in the all-time series 18-13-1, and they are on a two-game winning streak against the Bulldogs. The last time Arkansas beat Mississippi State three times in a row was from 2009-2011. Last year's meeting resulted in a 31-28 victory for the Hogs in Fayetteville.

Arkansas is a +9.5 point underdog against the Bulldogs.

Here is how the HawgBeat staff thinks the game will go Saturday:

The focus on this game will be centered around Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson and his availability until we see who trots out with the Razorback offense on Saturday.

Though I think Jefferson being able to play would certainly help the Hogs, I don't know if it will give them enough to win.

Arkansas' defense looks helpless at times. When it looks like things are under control and they've swung the momentum, the Razorbacks will give up what looked to be an impossible third down.

Going up against the air raid offense is a nightmare matchup for the Arkansas secondary, and with even more injuries looming back there, I don't know how it will keep up.

Mississippi State 41, Arkansas 31

It’s going to be another ugly one for the Razorback defense. Third-year starter Will Rogers is going to have a field day, and the Hogs will need a lot to go right if they’re going to pull off a victory.

At least this one is at 11 a.m. so we can all get on with our Saturdays.

Mississippi State 45, Arkansas 27

This is a game that I felt could cause some problems for Arkansas dating back to the preseason, and through five weeks I've not seen nearly enough from the Razorbacks to shift my prediction.

The matchup between one of the nation's premier passing attacks (air-raid, I know) against a defense that ranks 124th in the country at stopping offenses through the air bodes incredibly poorly for a team reeling from back-to-back losses.

Despite the wide margin, I can absolutely see a path to victory for Sam Pittman's team, but it's not going to be easy. The shift of freshman WR Sam M'Bake has me excited to see what Arkansas' secondary can do for the first time this season. Still, with quarterback KJ Jefferson unlikely to play, I just don't see the Hogs rushing attack keeping up with one of the SEC's best in Will Rogers.

Mississippi State 41, Arkansas 17

Things have been rough since Arkansas lost to Texas A&M almost three weeks ago, and they aren’t getting any easier as the Hogs head into Starkville on a two-game losing streak.

The Razorbacks’ biggest flaw, the pass defense, is going up against Mississippi State’s biggest strength, the air raid. Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers has already thrown for 1,715 yards and found the end zone 19 times.

I don’t see this as a game the Hogs win. The question mark at quarterback, coupled with the problems in the secondary, will spell trouble. I think it stays respectable, but Mike Leach finally gets his first win over Sam Pittman on Saturday.

Mississippi State 49, Arkansas 35

Arkansas gears up for their first road test of the year on Saturday, and they are doing so with a lot of injuries and shuffling some players around.

Cornerback Hudson Clark has moved to the safety spot, true freshman wide receiver Samuel M’Bake is running with the second team corners and the Razorbacks are teasing running a two quarterback system if KJ Jefferson isn’t good to go for Saturday.

None of this bodes too well for Arkansas. The Razorbacks will likely seek to establish the run against a defense that has given up a decent amount of yards on the ground this season, and will have to establish time of possession to keep the Bulldog offense off the field.

Mike Leach has built a career around his air raid offense, and Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers is perfect for that system. The secondary is really going to have to play disciplined and maintain coverage to give Arkansas a chance.

All that being said, the cowbells, the injuries and the passing attack from MSU will be too much for the Razorbacks.

Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 27

The 2022 season is starting to look a lot like 2021 for the Razorbacks. Top 10 ranking: check. 3-0 start: check (I know they started 4-0 last season). 3 game losing streak after Top 10 ranking: likely…

The Razorbacks are beat up after a tough two week stretch and now they have to go on the road to Starkville and take on a hot Mississippi State squad with a third year starting QB that’s been locked in all season. Will Rogers is a good QB and sure his numbers may be a little inflated due to the offense he plays in but he has had this game circled since preseason practice began.

Rogers is 0-2 against the Hogs, both games going down to the wire. He is one of the most efficient quarterbacks this season with a 73% completion rate with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions in 234 attempts.

Mike Leach has to be licking his chops knowing the Hogs' secondary is beat up and giving up 300 yards per game through the air. Rogers may have that by halftime.

The Hogs' QB situation has been the topic of conversation since last Saturday, but it doesn’t matter who is under center, the Bulldogs' offense will be too much and I don’t see Barry Odom pulling any magic in this one.

Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 21

Mason: 4-1, 3-2 ATS

Robert: 4-1, 2-3 ATS

Alex: 3-1, 2-2 ATS

Daniel: 3-2, 3-2 ATS

Jackson: 4-1, 3-2 ATS

Kevin: 1-0, 1-0 ATS

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