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Historical trends: Will Arkansas host a regional, earn top-8 seed?

Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, Arkansas still has a lot to play for.
Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, Arkansas still has a lot to play for. (Nick Wenger)

Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, Arkansas is still projected to host a regional, but not as a top-eight national seed.

Baseball America has the Razorbacks as the No. 11 seed in its latest NCAA Tournament projection, while D1Baseball has them at No. 13.

Assuming no upsets, Arkansas would go from playing a regional at Baum-Walker Stadium to traveling to Miami (Fla.), which the outlets have as the No. 6 and No. 4 overall seed, respectively.

However, there is still time for the Razorbacks to climb back up into the top-eight conversation. They play Alabama on the road this weekend and then head to Hoover, Ala., for the SEC Tournament.

Arkansas is very much still alive for an SEC West title, but its lead has dwindled to zero and will enter the Alabama series tied for first with Texas A&M, which is traveling to Ole Miss this weekend.

Winning the division could go a long way in securing home field advantage throughout the postseason, as nine of the last 10 SEC West champions earned top-eight seeds. The lone exception was Ole Miss in 2014, when the Rebels went 19-11, but were just a regional host.

Conference record and standing is not the only factor at play. The Rebels were No. 14 in the RPI that year, while the Razorbacks are No. 26 after Tuesday's games.

That is well outside the typical range for top-eight national seeds and seven spots lower than Tulane was in 2001, when it became the lowest-ranked team in the RPI (No. 19) to earn a top-eight seed in the current format of the NCAA Tournament.

It's an unusual spot to be in because SEC programs with 18, 19, 20 or more conference wins are typically ranked much higher in the RPI.

Here's a look at SEC teams who have won between 17-20 conference games -- the range Arkansas is guaranteed to finish within - over the previous 10 seasons, along with how they did at the SEC Tournament and their RPI, providing some historical trends to keep an eye on leading up to the selection show...

*won SEC Tournament
Reached College World Series in bold

17 SEC wins
Team Record Finish in Division Wins in Hoover RPI Postseason

2021 Florida

17-13

3rd

3

No. 17

host

2019 LSU

17-13

3rd

3

No. 16

host

2018 South Carolina

17-13

3rd

1

No. 43

2 seed

2017 Miss. State

17-13

3rd

2

No. 28

2 seed

2015 Arkansas

17-12

3rd

2

No. 35

2 seed

2014 Vanderbilt

17-13

3rd

1

No. 8

host

2014 LSU

17-11-1

2nd

4*

No. 9

top-8

2013 South Carolina

17-12

2nd

0

No. 13

host

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18 SEC wins
Team Record Finish in Division Wins in Hoover RPI Postseason

2021 Ole Miss

18-12

3rd

3

No. 12

host

2018 Georgia

18-12

2nd

0

No. 9

top-8

2018 Ole Miss

18-12

t-1st

4*

No. 5

top-8

2018 Arkansas

18-12

t-1st

2

No. 3

top-8

2017 Arkansas

18-11

2nd

3

No. 14

host

2016 Ole Miss

18-12

4th

2

No. 5

host

2016 Vanderbilt

18-12

3rd

2

No. 9

host

2015 Texas A&M

18-10

2nd

2

No. 6

host

2014 Miss. State

18-12

3rd

2

No. 32

2 seed

2014 South Carolina

18-12

2nd

0

No. 12

host

2013 Arkansas

18-11

2nd

2

No. 31

2 seed

2012 South Carolina

18-11

1st

1

No. 11

top-8

2012 Florida

18-12

t-2nd

2

No. 2

top-8

2012 Kentucky

18-12

t-2nd

2

No. 17

2 seed

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19 SEC wins
Team Record Finish in Division Wins in Hoover RPI Postseason

2021 Vanderbilt

19-10

2nd

1

No. 3

top-8

2017 Kentucky

19-11

2nd

1

No. 9

host

2016 LSU

19-11

3rd

3

No. 7

top-8

2016 Florida

19-10

2nd

3

No. 1

top-8

2015 Florida

19-11

2nd

4*

No. 3

top-8

2014 Ole Miss

19-11

1st

1

No. 14

host

2012 LSU

19-11

1st

1

No. 7

top-8

20 SEC wins
Team Record Finish in Division Wins in Hoover RPI Postseason

2021 Tennessee

20-10

1st

3

No. 5

top-8

2021 Miss. State

20-10

2nd

0

No. 7

top-8

2019 Arkansas

20-10

t-1st

1

No. 6

top-8

2019 Miss. State

20-10

t-1st

1

No. 4

top-8

2018 Florida

20-10

1st

1

No. 1

top-8

2016 Texas A&M

20-10

2nd

4*

No. 4

top-8

2016 South Carolina

20-9

1st

0

No. 8

host

2015 Vanderbilt

20-10

1st

3

No. 10

host

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