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Arkansas has reached the final week of the regular season and is still fighting to finish ahead of where it was predicted in the preseason.

Saturday’s loss at Georgia not only put their NCAA Tournament hopes in serious jeopardy, but now the Razorbacks - who were picked 11th by media - also need some help to earn a top-10 seed and avoid “Wednesday Night Sadness” at the SEC Tournament.

At 6-10 in conference play, Arkansas is currently tied with Missouri for 10th in the standings. The two teams split their games this season, but the Tigers own the tiebreaker by virtue of winning their game against Auburn. (Both teams lost to No. 1 seed Kentucky and Auburn is currently the No. 2 seed.)

Even if they beat LSU and Texas A&M to close the regular season, the Razorbacks would still need Missouri to lose at least once to avoid playing on Wednesday in Nashville.

According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Arkansas is favored in both of its remaining games, but has just a 41.4 percent chance of winning both games. Missouri, on the other hand, has just a 16.1 percent chance of winning both of its final two games.

If Arkansas and Missouri both go 2-0 this week, there is the potential for a multi-team tie at 8-10 if Alabama, Tennessee or Texas A&M - or any combination of those teams - also lose both of their games. However, those scenarios are too numerous to project at the moment.

It’s also worth noting that the Razorbacks and Tigers have just a one-game lead over Georgia and Ole Miss. If they slip up, the Bulldogs and Rebels could jump them in the standings.

Ole Miss would have to finish with a better conference record than the Razorbacks to hop them in the seeding, though, because Arkansas owns that two-way tiebreaker by beating the Rebels back in January. That’s not the case with Georgia, which beat the Razorbacks on Saturday.

Although both extremes are highly unlikely, Arkansas could actually still finish as high as the No. 7 seed or as low as the No. 13 seed for the SEC Tournament.

To earn the No. 7 seed, the Razorbacks would have to win their final two games, plus Alabama, Tennessee and Texas A&M would each need to go 0-2 this week. That would create a four-way tie for seventh (or five-way tie if Missouri also wins its final two games) and the Razorbacks would own the tiebreaker with a 4-1 record against those teams (or 5-2 if Missouri is included in the tie).

All of those things happening has only about a 0.7 percent chance of happening, according to the BPI. That’s about the same likelihood as the scenarios that would make Arkansas the No. 13 seed, which involve Georgia and Ole Miss jumping or creating multi-team ties at the bottom of the standings.

It is much more likely that Arkansas finishes somewhere in between, but - as mentioned above - those scenarios are still too numerous to calculate with two games left. The seeding picture will come more into focus following the games Tuesday and Wednesday, at which point HawgBeat will do an updated breakdown of the Razorbacks’ possibilities.

Here is a look at the teams directly ahead and behind Arkansas in the standings, as well as their final two games and their likely hood - according to the BPI - of winning them…

8-8

Alabama - vs. Vanderbilt (91.1%), at Missouri (49.3%)

Tennessee - at Kentucky (16.5%), vs. Auburn (50.2%)

Texas A&M - at Auburn (6.2%), vs. Arkansas (28.3%)

6-10

Arkansas - vs. LSU (57.7%), at Texas A&M (71.7%)

Missouri - at Ole Miss (31.8%), vs. Alabama (50.7%)

5-11

Georgia - vs. Florida (28.6%), at LSU (12.0%)

Ole Miss - vs. Missouri (68.2%), at Mississippi State (21.2%)

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