How shortened MLB draft, NCAA eligibility relief impact Arkansas baseball

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FAYETTEVILLE — The 2020 offseason will be unlike any in the history of college baseball because of the domino effect created by the coronavirus fallout.

All baseball players - and other spring athletes - were granted a blanket waiver for an extra year of eligibility by the NCAA Division I Council on Monday. Coupled with Major League Baseball’s decision to significantly shorten its 2020 and 2021 drafts, there will be an influx of talent never before seen in the sport.

Schools across the country will be forced to make difficult decisions when it comes to their roster, especially places like Arkansas that consistently bring in top players.

Head coach Dave Van Horn touched on those things when he spoke to local media via a teleconference Tuesday morning.

“I think it’s going to be a mental battle for all of us coaches and a lot of the players throughout the summer,” Van Horn said when asked about his top issue at the moment. “Some of it’s pretty obvious, but we have some really good young freshmen that we don’t know if they’re going to make it to school or not.

“Obviously there’s some scholarships there that could be moved around and there are roster spots that can be taken by other kids, so basically it’s all about getting the player personnel straightened out.”

Here is an overview of how the NCAA and MLB decisions will impact the Razorbacks next year, with insight from Van Horn…

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Eligibility Relief and the MLB Draft

Despite a growing belief that no one or only seniors would receive an extra year of eligibility, the NCAA Division I Council overwhelmingly supported eligibility relief for all athletes in spring sports.

That was a critical decision for college baseball because it ensured juniors like Zebulon Vermillion, Matt Goodheart, Kole Ramage and Braydon Webb would not lose out on potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars.

In a normal year, those players would almost certainly be drafted and sign six-figure signing bonuses. Rarely do they return for their senior seasons because they’d lose their leverage and be forced to agree to deals for much less than market value.

For example, Carson Shaddy was a 10th-round selection in 2018 and - despite having a stellar career and coming off an All-SEC campaign - signed for only $10,000. The slot value for his pick that year was $136,900.

In a shortened draft - it could be as few as five rounds - there is a good chance those juniors would not be picked. Without the eligibility relief from the NCAA, they would then be forced to sign as undrafted free agents this summer - with a maximum signing bonus of $20,000 - or as seniors next summer for likely even less.

Having the extra year enables them to return in 2021 as juniors and still get the signing bonus they deserve.

“I think it will give them a good option to go back to school if they feel like they are not going to get the type of bonus they need to skip a year of school,” Van Horn said. “So I think it’s definitely an advantage for them and at least frees them up to make a decision instead of feeling like they don’t have any bargaining power and pretty much take what they can get.”

The exact details of the draft - such as the date and length of it - are still up in the air, but Van Horn said he’s heard that if the entire MLB season is canceled, it will be only five rounds. If they manage to play a partial season, it could be 10 or 20 rounds.

In the latter scenario, it would be much more likely for Vermillion, Goodheart, Ramage and Webb to get drafted, but they’d have the option to return to school and still have leverage the following summer.

Regardless of how many rounds there are, the Razorbacks’ superstar trio of Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin and Casey Opitz will likely get picked. The first two are near locks, but Van Horn did acknowledge that scouts have mixed reviews on Opitz.

The veteran coach said he has the option of returning to Fayetteville and would likely be one of the first catchers taken in the 2021 draft, but he still feels like he’s one of the top three catchers in the country this year and doesn’t see him doing that.

“There are some scouts that are not sure, but I think he should be a good draft,” Van Horn said. “If he’s not drafted where he wants to, doesn’t get the money that he really wants, I mean obviously we would love to have him back.”

Roster, Scholarship Limits Expanded

When discussing the possibility of eligibility relief earlier this month, Van Horn said such a decision would also require expanding the roster and scholarship limits in college baseball.

Teams are limited to 35 players on the roster during the season, with a maximum 11.7 scholarships to be divided amongst 27 of them. The other eight players must be walk-ons.

Sure enough, the NCAA has relaxed those rules by allowing seniors from this season to play in 2021 without counting toward either of the limits. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, that doesn’t mean much because they had only one senior this year.

“That part didn’t help us one bit,” Van Horn said. “What it’s going to do is help a lot of the mid-majors or the rare case of Power Five type schools that have a lot of seniors.”

Van Horn said he was happy for the seniors, but teams like TCU - which have seven or eight impact seniors - will benefit much more from that rule.

Cole Austin, a graduate transfer from Arizona State who began his career at West Virginia, was Arkansas’ lone senior. He was the primary starting first baseman and played solid defense, but struggled at the plate, going just 9 for 47 (.191) with one home run and five RBIs in 15 games.

Although he could play in 2021 without costing the Razorbacks a scholarship or roster spot, Van Horn said he’s 60 percent sure he won’t take advantage of it.

“I would say as of right now, he’s not going to play and is going to finish his Master’s, but sometimes things change,” Van Horn said. “He feels like he's a lot older than a lot of the guys and maybe it's time to step aside, but sometimes when you have a little time to really think, ‘Maybe I need to finish this thing out.’”

Van Horn wasn’t sure how graduate transfers would be treated with regard to this rule, but D1Baseball’s Kendall Rogers is reporting that graduate transfers would count toward the scholarship and roster limits.

In addition to only applying to seniors at their current schools, the relaxed limitations are currently available for just the 2020-21 academic year.

Van Horn was hoping for broader scholarship and roster expansion that could taper off each season as things normalized because bringing in a freshman class and giving every an extra year essentially adds an extra class of players to the equation. The way things are now, he’ll be forced to run players off or they’ll feel forced to leave.

“That could make for some difficult decisions at the end of the ’21 season,” Van Horn said. “Or if you want to be proactive, maybe you start taking care of some of that now - so you don’t have to do it next year - if there are kids that are borderline or you know for sure that may not feel good about it.”

It’s worth noting, though, that the NCAA could always come back and adjust those rules in the future. Rogers said the DI Council acknowledged it will require further discussion.

JUCO Classifications

The DI Council’s vote for blanket eligibility relief fell in line with decisions previously made by the NCAA’s Division II and Division III levels, as well as the NAIA and NJCAA.

There was still a question about how players transitioning from the NJCAA to the NCAA would be classified in 2021, though. According to Rogers, sophomores this spring will head to DI programs as juniors, but can submit a waiver to get the year back - which would almost assuredly be approved.

“I would think it makes sense if you lost a year there because they didn’t get to play, why would they count the year when he comes here?” Van Horn said. “So, for example, the 2-3 JUCO kids we have committed right now, if they came in, they should be eligible to come in as redshirt sophomores, but that would be my educated guess.”

The Razorbacks currently have three JUCO signees who would be effected by this rule: infielder Jalen Battles from McClennan C.C., right-handed pitcher Ryan Costeiu from Sacramento City C.C. and infielder Brady Slavens from Johnson County C.C.

All three were listed as sophomores this year and will likely be listed as such on Arkansas’ roster next season. Instead of having only one year with leverage to play for the Razorbacks, they could potentially play two and still get a full signing bonus in the MLB Draft.

Incoming Freshmen

For the last several years, Van Horn has touted his 2020 class as one of the best he’s ever put together at Arkansas. Highlighted by six top-100 recruits, it is ranked fourth nationally by Perfect Game.

The key has always been getting a majority of those players to turn down professional contracts out of high school and actually make it to campus.

Masyn Winn from Kingwood, Texas, is probably the headliner of the group, as he is the No. 18 overall prospect and a highly regarded right-handed pitcher and shortstop. He’s followed by third baseman Cayden Wallace (No. 23) from Greenbrier; right-hander Nate Wohlgemuth (No. 42) from Owasso, Okla.; right-hander Markevian Hence (No. 60) from Watson Chapel in Pine Bluff; shortstop Michael Brooks (No. 86) from Wellington, Fla.; and left-hander Nick Griffin (No. 87) from Monticello.

That doesn’t include Robert Moore, who was the No. 20 overall prospect but skipped his senior season of high school to play at Arkansas this year, or several other top-300 recruits.

“In a normal draft year, if there were 40 rounds, I think we could have as many as double digits drafted,” Van Horn said. “Now sometimes they don’t draft them because they price themselves out or they say I’m going to college no matter what…(but) I think if it was just straight up drafting because of ability, I think we’d have a lot of kids…that would definitely be drafted.”

As discussed above, though, this is not a normal draft year. If there are only five rounds of the MLB Draft, more high school players than normal could end up in the college ranks.

Van Horn said two or three of those players would be capable of contributing immediately. Coupled with the return of talented juniors who would have otherwise begun their professional careers, the Razorbacks - and other programs - will have crowded rosters in 2021 and beyond.

A possible side effect of that is an influx of players heading to junior college, which would allow them to be draft eligible again next summer instead of being required to play three years. Based on emails and phone calls he’s already received, Johnson County C.C. head coach Kent Shelley said he’s anticipating an “extremely exciting level of baseball next year, for sure,” at the JUCO level.

“I think the quality and level of play at the junior college level next year be off the charts. … Being granted this extra year, especially with the draft situation, I just think there’s going to be a lot of kids opting to go the community college route and I think junior college baseball is going to be at an all-time high next year.”

However, with the MLB Draft being as few as five rounds this summer, there could be a mega class of prospects for the 2021 draft - which could be as few as 20 rounds itself.

Recruits might think it’s beneficial to spend three years in college and enter the draft when thins are back to normal rather than test the waters again after one year of junior college.

The idea of a crowded roster potentially pushing players away because of a lack of playing time doesn’t particularly concern Van Horn because he said good players will still go pro after their third season in college, even if they’re still considered a sophomore for eligibility purposes.

For example, Christian Franklin would be eligible for next year’s draft even though he’d be considered a sophomore in the eyes of the NCAA because he’d be three years removed from high school baseball. That would not change when his position in the outfield would open up.

“I’m not real concerned about it as of right now,” Van Horn said. “I don’t see any issues. Now the issue (would be) if we had four or five seniors that are coming back that are pretty good players and then we get a log jam then.”