Arkansas returns to Baum-Walker Stadium for another SEC series this weekend. Here's everything you need to know ahead of the three games against Ole Miss...
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Weekend Rotation
The Arkansas staff is coming off a weekend against Texas A&M in which it allowed 14 runs over three games, but 11 came in the rubber match.
Noland continued his steadiness in series openers, striking out seven and walking three in six innings while surrendering two runs, both of which were unearned. He climbed to second in the conference in strikeouts and innings pitched on the year, plus also holds the fourth-best ERA during SEC play at a measly 1.93.
Smith had his second shortest start of 2022, only making it through three innings while allowing one run on two hits. He was removed prematurely due to an inability to keep the ball in the zone, as 32 strikes thrown in 70 pitches led to a career-high five walks. He also tied a career low with one batter sat down on strikes. To make matters worse, his velocity was lower than normal, sitting in the upper-80s as opposed to the normal low-90s.
Wiggins was the other hurler to have a career day, but not in a positive light. He could only get one out before he was yanked, allowing five runs on three walks and a home run. Similar to Smith, he struck out one Aggie for a new career low in 14 starts.
While the Razorbacks' staff has experienced this ineffectiveness from its starters infrequently, it’s been quite the opposite in Oxford. The Rebels have not used the same starting rotation multiple times yet in SEC play.
The one surefire thing is that the Hogs will see Dylan Delucia on Friday night. All three of his starts in 2022 have been in SEC series openers, two of which were the last two weekends against South Carolina and Mississippi State. In those outings, he hasn’t pitched fewer than 6 1/3 innings and hasn’t allowed more than a pair of runs.
Delucia tends to sit in the low-90s with a sinking fastball and isn’t afraid of pitching to contact, although he’s been somewhat susceptible to the long ball, allowing seven in 34 2/3 SEC innings and a team-high eight total. He combines the sinker with a slider in the low-80s that he goes to for strikeouts, as well as an occasional changeup.
In his most recent outing, he threw a complete game against the Bulldogs in Ole Miss’ series-opening victory. That turned out to be the Rebels’ lone victory of the weekend.
Outside of Delucia, their rotation is very hazy, but the Rebels are going with Hunter Elliott, and Derek Diamond.
Elliott is a lefty who has seen a mixture of weekend starts and long relief situations, but has been one of the most effective arms on the Rebels staff in general.
His 3.19 ERA is second best on the team and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any outing. He also leads the team with 45 strikeouts and has allowed only two round-trippers in 31 innings.
Getting the nod on Saturday could be due to the Razorbacks’ general inability to hit lefties. Standing on the mound with a 6-foot-3, 205-pound frame, he has a big scooping motion reaching behind himself and flowing into a three-quarter delivery, creating some arm-side run on a fastball in the upper-80s to lower-90s. He also has a bender curveball along with a solid changeup to put together a playable three-pitch mix.
Diamond is a right-hander who's tied with Jack Washburn for the most starts on the team and he’s also thrown the most innings with 44 1/3. Although he has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios at 41-to-10, his struggles largely focus on being hit around, as his 47 hits allowed are seven more than any other Rebel. They aren’t just singles either — 20 of the hits have been for extra bases.
Manning the mound with a similar physical presence as Elliott, he showcases a more compact delivery. He’ll sit in the low to mid-90s with a fastball that has late life, along with a good curveball and changeup alongside the heater.
He won't start, but John Gaddis is the other main lefty who could see a large chunk of innings against the Razorbacks. The graduate transfer from Texas A&M-Corpus Christi was a fixture in the rotation early in the season, but has been relegated to long relief situations as of late.
He will come over the top in his delivery and fill up the strike zone with a heavy fastball that ranges from 88-91 mph. A snappy curveball and splitter used as a changeup accompany the heater.
“He is not going to beat himself,” said Justin Taylor, his former catcher at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. “He will make you hit his fastball in early innings. When in leverage or down in counts, the fastball is generally the go-to.”
Washburn is another righty who’s seen plenty of starts, but he tends to be pulled earlier than Diamond, extending past 3 1/3 innings just twice in nine starts. His numbers are much better than Diamond’s, starting with a 3.34 ERA that’s fourth best on the staff.
Although he strikes out plenty of batters, he’s generous with free passes, handing out just under 5.5 per nine innings. Despite that, he’s normally lights out, allowing more than one earned run in only a fifth of his outings.
The Hogs are likely to see a stable of arms this weekend. Outside of when Deluccia gets the ball, most of Ole Miss' starts don’t end with the pitcher going long enough to record a win or quality start.
Brandon Johnson is the team leader in saves with four, but he’s struggled to prevent runs from scoring, as evidenced by his lofty 5.40 ERA.
Drew McDaniel makes the occasional start, but he was head coach Mike Bianco’s choice to pitch against Mississippi State on Tuesday. There is a good chance the righty will see a chunk of innings throughout the series.
Mason Nichols and Riley Maddox are a pair of right handers who lead the staff in appearances at 14. They hold ERAs of 3.26 and 5.24, respectively.
Projected Starting Lineups
(NOTE: Jace Bohrofen could also start for Arkansas. He has a slash line of .241/.333/.500. ... Calvin Harris could also start for Ole Miss. He has a slash line of .355/.453/.500.)
Know the Foe
2022 Record: 23-17 (6-12 SEC)
Head Coach: Mike Bianco (21st season) 822-462-1 record
Conference Standings: last in SEC West, t-11th in SEC overall
~Beginning the season ranked top 10 in the nation and reaching No. 1 in the polls early in the year, Ole Miss has had a fall from grace in the polls lately, now sitting unranked. Returning the majority of its lineup from last season’s team that was eliminated in the Tucson Super Regional, the Rebels have not lived up to the expectations many had for them coming into 2022.
~During Bianco’s tenure as the head coach in Oxford, Miss., the Rebels have never had a year below .500 in win percentage. They have also earned a berth in 17 of 20 seasons that a postseason was held. This year’s 6-12 beginning to conference play is the worst during Bianco’s tenure.
~Over the history of the rivalry, Arkansas narrowly holds a narrow 54-49 lead in the all-time series. In the past decade, Ole Miss has dominated the matchups, winning seven of the last 10 series. However, the Razorbacks have won the last two, including in the 2019 Fayetteville Super Regional.
~Ole Miss’ offense is the strength of the team. Putting up double digits in the run column 15 times this year, it ranks third in the SEC with a .505 slugging percentage, third with 313 total runs scored, fourth with 70 home runs and fifth with 668 total bases in 2022. Despite that, the Rebels rank 12th with 367 hits and have struck out 355 times, which is fourth in the conference.
~Tim Elko is one of the biggest pieces in the Ole Miss lineup. Coming off a torn ACL in the 2021 season, Elko — who is also the team captain — has bounced back exquisitely. His 16 home runs are tied for most in the SEC, 51 RBI are second and .660 slugging percentage is eighth. He’s also been sat down on strikes 52 times, which is tied for second in the conference.
~Jacob Gonzalez is the other main threat to Arkansas pitchers. He’s been an even larger impact statistically, as he leads the conference with 48 runs scored. His .705 slugging percentage is third in the SEC, 14 home runs are fourth, 98 total bases are tied for fifth and 36 walks are also fifth. His best game came on April 9 against Alabama, when he had a three-home run game and drove in six runs in an extra-inning loss.
~Similar to the Hogs’ past few conference series, Ole Miss is among the worst in the conference at playing defense. Its .967 fielding percentage only trumps LSU and 44 errors are outranked by only the Tigers. Following along the lines of subpar defense, the Rebels are last in the SEC with 274 assists and also last with 14 double plays turned on the season.
~Despite its ineffectiveness with the gloves, Ole Miss is solid defensively behind the plate. The Rebels have allowed the second fewest stolen bases with 17 and caught 13 potential base thieves, which is fourth in the SEC. Their five passed balls allowed is also tied for fourth fewest. The Hogs are likely to see a combination of Hayden Dunhurst and Calvin Harris at catcher.
~Ole Miss is not an effective base-stealing team. They rank 10th in the SEC with 42 steal attempts, but have been caught on 15 of those tries, which is fourth most. Center fielder TJ McCants is the only Rebel that has swiped more than five bags, leading the team with eight. Tim Elko is the only player on the roster to attempt multiple stolen bases in 2022 without being gunned down.
Quotable
“They’ve had some injuries that have — like we all have — that I think their's have hurt them a little bit more. I mean, you just never know how it’s going to go. Kids have good years one year. They have an average year the next. A lot of combinations. They’ve played a tough schedule. I mean, it’s hard to say. I don’t know. My thing is I just try to take care of our team and when we play whoever we’re going to play, we go after them. So I don’t really know what to say about that.” — DVH on Ole Miss' struggles this year
“I expect them to be really good. I expect it to be a really good series. You can throw the records out, in my opinion. They’ve got good players. They’ve got good arms. They’re very offensive. I mean, up and down their lineup is tough. It’s just … the wins and losses, it could flip. I’ve seen it happen. So I expect it to be a very good series, very competitive.” — DVH on Ole Miss
“He’s having a great year. He’s got 16 home runs. He’s tearing it up. He’s a big, strong guy -- man -- and he’s a great human being, good person. Personally, I’m happy for him. I just hope he doesn’t take it out on us. I hope we can get him out some this weekend, and then he finishes the year strong. But you’ve got to cheer for a guy like that, at least when you’re not playing him. He was a big part of their team last year. He had a little semi-collision with a first baseman in a midweek game and landed wrong on his knee. And it changed their team for a while.Then when he came back, which we couldn’t believe, he came back with a brace. I was watching the game live when he hit a home run and he crushed it and limped around the field. It was pretty impressive. He hit a few more last year, and then obviously he’s a lot healthier this year and bigger and stronger and decided to come back for another year. I don’t know if it’s his fifth year or sixth year. But he’s probably the leader of the team.” — DVH on Tim Elko
“Mike’s a really good baseball coach. He’s a former catcher, so he knows pitching. Obviously he knows how to run a team. He’s had as much success as anybody in this league over the last 22 years. He’s actually the Dean of the league, a couple of years or a year longer than Coach Corbin and I. He always puts a great team on the field. Yeah, we have a good relationship. It’s not like we talk all the time, but in the offseason if there’s an issue, I feel fine calling him, calling his cell phone. I think he feels the same way if we’re discussing things. Playing his teams, you’re always going to face some good pitching and some guys that can hit. I mean, it’s like he’s got big leaguers scattered all over, probably a few on his team right now. It’s like playing everybody in this league, they’re all talented. There’s a lot of expectation down there, and I think he’s done a great job handling it.” — DVH on Mike Bianco
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