Arkansas might not have gotten off to the start in non-conference play that many fans expected, as it enters SEC play with two losses. It’s not just that the Razorbacks lost two games, but that they did not look good in either of them – a 22-point blowout loss to Oklahoma and an 89-81 defeat to Hofstra in Little Rock.
Based on the whole of non-conference play, here is where I predict things to end up for Arkansas.
Dec. 29 - @ Mississippi State: L
Arkansas has struggled mightily in Starkville, amassing a 7-22 overall record and 3-15 mark this century. In fact, Arkansas has not won on the road against Mississippi State since February 2015 when the No. 18 Razorbacks beat the Bulldogs 65-61.
While Arkansas had much more hype coming into the season, and on paper should have more talent than the Bulldogs this season, they have not shown it. Both teams are squarely in the middle of the pack and the matchup would be a toss-up on a neutral court. Mississippi State can knock down open shots, get to the free throw line, and keeps the game slow and low-scoring.
On the road in a low-scoring affair, I give the advantage to the Bulldogs.
Jan. 4 – Vanderbilt: W
The Razorbacks have had a tough time stopping good guards this season, and Vanderbilt has two great ones in Scotty Pippen Jr. and Jordan Wright. Outside of that, though, there isn’t too much firepower for the Commodores.
They’re a solid defensive team that allows only 60.7 points per game and 31.4% from three, but won’t have the firepower to go on the road in Bud Walton Arena and steal a victory from the Hogs.
Jan. 8 - @ Texas A&M: W
The Aggies, like the Razorbacks, are a difficult team to get a read on. They’ve had quality victories over Oregon State on the road and on a neutral site against weak Butler and Notre Dame teams.
The collapse against Wisconsin early in the year and the failed comeback bid against TCU might be more accurate indicators of the true potential of Texas A&M. Being on the road will be tough, and the Aggies look to be improved from last season, but I still give Arkansas the edge on talent and ability.
Jan. 12 – Missouri: W
Missouri is at the bottom of the conference with Georgia and shows really no sign of improving. The Tigers have very little firepower and have lost in convincing fashion to any good team they’ve faced this season: a 23-point loss to Florida State, 21-point loss at Liberty, 37-point loss at Kansas, and a 25-point loss to Illinois on a neutral floor.
Missouri has a ton of problems and all signs are pointing to them being the standalone basement dweller in the SEC. Arkansas should have no problem taking care of business at home.
Jan. 15 - @ LSU: L
LSU is the lone undefeated team remaining in the conference and are playing at an extremely high level. The catch is that they haven’t played a ton of good competition, but the few games they have, they’ve looked good. The Tigers got past Penn State on a neutral floor in overtime and easily handled Wake Forest on their way to winning by 14. They also have a road victory over Georgia Tech.
The Tigers are full of talent and one of the top defensive teams in the country. They’re second in points allowed, first in field goal percentage, 11th in three-point defense, and first in steals. They do all of this while having great size and talented guards that would expose the Razorback defense, particularly point guard Xavier Pinson, who was very nearly a Razorback this offseason.
On the road against a very good team, I think the Hogs struggle.
Jan. 18 – South Carolina: W
South Carolina had a very disappointing campaign last season, but have recovered nicely this year. Despite two bad losses to Princeton and Coastal Carolina, the Gamecocks also have a few quality victories over Army, Florida State and UAB.
The trend for the Gamecocks under Frank Martin has been to struggle in non-conference play and then turn it up in conference play to push for a bubble bid, but this year they enter conference play at 9-3 with a quality backcourt.
Games against Martin-coached teams are ugly, just like he likes it, but despite what could be a close bout for many of the 40 minutes, Arkansas should pull out the win at home.
Jan. 22 – Texas A&M: W
A&M will likely be playing better this deep into the season compared to the teams’ first matchup and will be out for revenge against the Razorbacks. However, Arkansas will most likely also be playing much better at this point of the season. Being at Bud Walton, Arkansas gets the advantage.
Jan. 26 - @ Ole Miss: W
Entering conference play with an 8-4 record, the Rebels are yet another team that is difficult to get a read on. Decent victories against Dayton and Memphis are overshadowed by bad losses to Samford, Western Kentucky and Boise State.
They don’t do anything particularly well outside of defending the three, but they do have a solid frontcourt duo with Nysier Brooks and Jaemyn Brakefield.
Regardless, Arkansas’ guards should be able to penetrate at-will similar to the Samford and Western Kentucky guards did and should win handily on the road.
Jan. 29 – West Virginia (Non-Conference): L
A major non-conference matchup takes place in the heart of conference play for the Razorbacks, as they face off against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.
The matchup is Arkansas’ last chance to have a high-quality non-conference victory, as they currently have no Quad 1 victories in the NET rankings. West Virginia sits at No. 36 in the NET right now, while Arkansas is at 90. A home victory would be a major non-conference win and resume booster and being at home greatly helps Arkansas’ chances.
However, Bob Huggins is one of the best coaches of all-time and has yet another team that plays fast, forces turnovers, and hits shots from the outside, and it is all predicated from incredible backcourt play. The combination of all of those factors are a major weakness for the Razorbacks right this second.
The key to a Razorback victory will be to stop both Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil, who combine to average 34.9 points per game and shoot 35.8% from three. Outside of that, the Mountaineers are one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers and both scoring and three-point defense.
The matchup does not favor Arkansas, even at home.
Feb. 2 - @ Georgia: W
Georgia is hands down the worst team in the conference. Despite beating Memphis at home, they’ve lost to Wofford, Northwestern and East Tennessee State, plus Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Cincinnati. The Bulldogs sit at 5-7 with one game against Gardner-Webb remaining before starting conference play, but the outcome of that game doesn’t affect my opinion of the team.
Arkansas should win easily on the road at Georgia.
Feb. 5 – Mississippi State: W
Mississippi State will come into Bud Walton Arena to face an Arkansas team sitting close to the top of the conference and wanting revenge for the conference-opening loss in Starkville. Having home court advantage and the team having more chemistry later in the season should see the Razorbacks win at home.
Feb. 8 – Auburn: L
The first major home game in conference play for Arkansas doesn’t come until the second week of February against Auburn. The Tigers have big wins against Syracuse, at Saint Louis, and Loyola-Chicago, while also dismantling Nebraska and handling Murray State. Their one loss on the year was a double-overtime loss against Connecticut on a neutral floor.
Taking the identity of a typical Bruce Pearl-coached team, they are young, athletic, fast, and shoot a lot from the outside. While this will be a tough matchup, the homecourt advantage will help Arkansas prevent Auburn from gaining extra momentum on runs and can really take the Tigers out of their rhythm.
However, the matchups are so heavily in favor of Auburn that I don’t think the home crowd can boost the Hogs to victory. Auburn shoots 34.8% from three, turns the ball over only 10.7 times per game, and hauls in 39.8 rebounds per game.
Stats don’t tell the full story, but the Tigers pass the eye test as well with their incredible length and athleticism. With the Razorbacks struggling to contain drives on defense, allowing cutters, and allowing a high percentage from behind the arc, Auburn should be able to escape Fayetteville with a close victory.
Feb. 12 - @ Alabama: L
Alabama has some of the best wins in college basketball against Gonzaga and Houston, but has also lost to Memphis and Davidson, making for a puzzling dichotomy.
Regardless of their two recent losses, their roster is loaded with talent, especially at the guard position, with Jaden Shackelford, Jahvon Quinerly, Keon Ellis, and JD Davison all playing at the level of all-conference performers.
While the Crimson Tide don’t prevent scoring like some of the other teams in conference, they’re one of the best teams in the country in scoring in every phase of the game. Nate Oats is known for his three-point and free throw approach, so they don’t shoot many shots inside the arc, and the ones they do are lay-ups. This makes for one of the more efficient offenses in the country and the 15th highest-scoring offense in the country at 82.9 points per game.
This year Alabama has struggled from the free throw line and in not turning the ball over, but they’ve made up for that with their rebounding and three point makes per game. This will be a tough matchup for Arkansas, but the Hogs do have some matchup advantages. If they could contain the Tide from beyond the arc and force turnovers, they could win the game on the road.
However, the elite level of backcourt talent Alabama possesses along with their style of play and efficiency, I have a hard time seeing Arkansas winning.
Feb. 15 - @ Missouri: W
Again, Missouri is a basement dweller. Being on the road should not change the fact that Arkansas should easily take care of them this year.
Feb. 19 – Tennessee: W
This one really could be a toss-up. Tennessee has some great wins on the season - North Carolina, at Colorado, and Arizona – but that seems to be typical of a Rick Barnes-led Tennessee team. Start strong in the non-conference and early conference play only to falter towards the end of the season.
If history holds true, this matchup would take place right around the time Tennessee starts their annual decline, and right around the time where Arkansas hits their stride. I can’t just predict a victory based on home court advantage and potential historical trends, but the matchup is pretty split.
Tennessee does a handful of things extraordinarily well: offensive rebounding, assists, taking care of the ball, and scoring defense. Those three things are important to a team’s success – but those are also things that can be game-planned for and taken out of a team’s arsenal.
Arkansas is one of the best in the country at getting to the free throw line and converting – they’re No. 8 in free throw makes per game at 16.8 and No. 12 in attempts with 22.8 and shooting 73.7%. Tennessee averages over 15 fouls per game and allows almost 15 free throw attempts per game. They also score 81.5 points per game, good enough for 25th in the country.
At the end of the day, something’s gotta give - Tennessee’s defense or Arkansas’s scoring, the Volunteers’ minimal free throw attempts allowed or the Razorbacks’ high volume of free throws, etc. Given that Arkansas will be at home and the matchup is so close, I think the Hogs can pull out a close one.
Feb. 22 - @ Florida: L
Florida started the year strong with a 6-0 record and wins over Florida State, Cal and Ohio State, but eventually lost two of three, including an ugly one to Texas Southern.
On the whole, Florida has looked pretty solid this season outside of that bad loss. They’re a team that truly doesn’t do anything outstanding, but is just good enough at everything to win some games. They don’t have any glaring weak points, but they also don’t have any one strength that has to be prepared for ad nauseum.
Being on the road presents a tough challenge, and again it’s going to be a case of “something’s gotta give.” Florida does generate second possessions through offensive rebounds very well and they’ve prevented teams from scoring much, allowing only 59.9 points per game. Taking those factors, along with the Gators having some quick guards that can get to the bucket, like Arkansas native Tyree Appleby, I’ll give the edge to Florida.
Feb. 26 – Kentucky: L
Kentucky is looking like the Wildcats of old thus far this season. They played Duke close for their season-opener and easily handled North Carolina and Western Kentucky. The only bad performance on the year was a road loss to Notre Dame just a couple of weeks ago.
The Wildcats have a great combination of size and athleticism and are shooting the ball much better than they did last year, when they struggled. Kentucky actually leads the country in made field goals per game with 32.9 and a majority of their shots are coming inside the arc – making 26.6 of 47.7 two-point attempts, each leading the nation.
On top of all that, Kentucky also dominates the glass, leading the nation in total rebounds, second in offensive rebounds, and 27th in defensive rebounds. It will be another raucous crowd at Bud Walton Arena, but the matchup favors Kentucky to take home the victory.
Mar. 2 – LSU: L
Being at home helps, but doesn’t make up for the tough matchup the Razorbacks face against LSU. I expect this game to be pretty close, potentially even an overtime game, but ultimately, I think the Tigers come away with the victory.
Mar. 5 - @ Tennessee: L
Much like the first matchup at Bud Walton Arena, I expect this to be a very even matchup. With home court advantage, I think Tennessee manages to split the series.
Official Final Record Prediction: 20-11 (10-8)
This record most likely would have Arkansas on the right side of the Bubble come March, but one more quality win, whether the Hogs take the West Virginia win or one of the other games against the top conference teams, would put them safely in the tournament field.
Expectations were high coming into this season after the historic Elite Eight run in Musselman’s second year, but this team is different. Last year there was a ton of growth throughout the season, but the chemistry and buy-in was there from the start. There will likely be growth from a talent and chemistry standpoint this season, but the buy-in just isn’t at the same level and the conference looks to be even stronger than last season at the top.
Granted, there are also a few toss-up games that could go either way, but this is the most likely scenario in my mind. And even on a down year, the Hogs should make the NCAA Tournament. Once you get there, anything is possible.
