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The calendar has flipped to February, so it's time once again to answer your questions about Arkansas basketball...
Has Jaylin Williams turned himself into an NBA Draft pick this year? Why or why not?
Williams has really played well lately. Since conference play started, he’s the only player in the SEC averaging a double-double and 2-plus assists (he’s at 2.6). He’s even improved his shooting percentage, as he’s playing with more confidence and taking those open looks.
It’s been a steady improvement throughout his career, but Williams made a noticeable jump in the second week of conference play. In a loss against Texas A&M on the road, Williams notched his first career double-double with 10 points and 11 rebounds. Arkansas lost the game, but the 6-foot-10 big man came away with a new type of confidence.
Next up, the Razorbacks had their backs against the wall and were on a three-game conference losing streak and absolutely had to hold home court against a bad Missouri team to save the season and keep any postseason hopes alive.
The entire team came out dominant, winning in convincing fashion 87-43, but it was the second game in a row where the Fort Smith native established his presence on both ends of the court, finishing with another double-double - this time with 13 points and 10 rebounds.
Those kind of performances have become expected of Williams now - 19 points and 9 rebounds against South Carolina, 18 points and 8 rebounds against Ole Miss, and 12 points with a career-high 15 rebounds against West Virginia.
This stretch of seven games hasn’t just been about points and rebounds, though. Williams has taken on a new role where the entire system runs through him. He helps bring the ball up the court with senior guard JD Notae, he leads the team (by a mile) in charges drawn, he’s still playing a point-center role where he utilizes his great vision and passing ability to find his teammates. Put simply, he’s doing everything for the Razorbacks, but he’s also doing so efficiently.
Over the past seven games, Williams is shooting 47% from the field, 35.7% from behind the arc and 85.7% from the free throw line. Since the Texas A&M game where Arkansas lost by just five points, Williams is also averaging 2.1 assists and 2.3 turnovers per game. While that’s a negative assist-to-turnover ratio, Williams is playing the center spot with the ball in his hands a large portion of the game. Even being close to an even ratio should be celebrated, particularly with as many assists as he is racking up.
In addition to the insane amount of charges he’s racking up, he’s also blocking 1.6 shots per game in that stretch, becoming more and more viable as a rim protector.
That’s a very, very long-winded backstory to his success this season to get to the question: Is he an NBA Draft prospect this year? Despite all of his success, I am going to have to say no.
There are still plenty of little things he could work on on both ends of the floor. While his rotation on defense to draw charges is good, he could definitely improve his one-on-one low-post defense against other bigs. He’s one of the best and most consistent rebounders in the country, which helps his draft stock, but for a post that lacks a consistent inside scoring ability against premier defenders, his outside shot isn’t far enough along yet, either.
As a passer and rebounder, Williams is in the upper-echelon of young post players in the college game right now. As an overall scorer and defender, he’s just not quite there yet. One more year of development would serve him well, as he hasn’t even begun to scratch the surface of his potential.
Will a .500 record in conference play be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament?
I’ll give you a lawyer’s answer for this one: It depends.
It truly just depends on the teams Arkansas would lose to and pick up wins against in conference play en route to going 9-9. If they sneak a win against Auburn at home or Tennessee or Florida on the road, that 9-9 mark should easily have them in.
If they do nothing more than win the games they’re “supposed to” to get to eight wins and then just win at home against LSU or Tennessee, it could be tough. That would likely leave Arkansas with just two, maybe three, Quadrant 1 wins in terms of NET, and that would have them squarely on the bubble.
It’s definitely possible, though, with the right win. The absolute safest bet for Arkansas to be in the field with potentially even a decent seed would be to get to 10-8 in conference play.
At the end of the year, what seed could you see Arkansas getting?
It’s hard to say because it depends on their final record, who they beat, how the field does and how Arkansas’ previous opponents finish out the year.
If Arkansas goes 10-8 in conference to get to 21-10 overall, that should put them right around the 8/9 line. A .500 record more than likely has them at an 11 or 12 seed. Anything after that is icing on the cake, so to speak.
Right this second, the way they’re playing, I’d imagine they finish with a 22-9 (11-7) mark entering the SEC Tournament, which would put them around a 6 or 7 seed.
Could JD Notae or Au’Diese Toney return next year? Would they?
Technically, yes they could return. Both are in their fourth year of playing college basketball. Notae used two at Jacksonville, sat out during his transfer year, and is in his second year at Arkansas. Toney played three years at Pitt before transferring to Arkansas for this season.
Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the NCAA granted an extra year of eligibility to a host of different sports by year, including 2020-21 winter sports. Basketball falls under the winter sport category, so players get an extra year.
While Toney is listed as a graduate senior and Notae is listed as a redshirt senior, they each have their “Covid year” in their back pocket - think Grant Morgan in football. He redshirted and then played four full years of college football. After the 2020 season, he could’ve tried his luck in the NFL Draft, applied to medical school or come back to the University of Arkansas to play another year as a "super senior."
Toney and Notae technically should still have that option, but would they take it?
It’s hard to say. With the loaded recruiting class coming in, ranked fourth nationally on Rivals, along with Musselman and his staff’s propensity to bring in transfers, the roster would completely change again, and it could mean their roles change.
Toney and Notae are two of the top players on the team this year, and regardless of who gets brought in, they would still be heavily involved and relied upon if they do come back. Their skill, experience and leadership would be invaluable for another year. It ends up being a balancing act for them, though. Do they just want to get out of school and go make money playing professionally?
Well, it’s hard to see either making an NBA roster right this second, but they could have lucrative overseas careers or play with G-League affiliates. On the other hand, though, with NIL being available for college athletes now, that could sway them to stay.
Notae even recently signed an NIL deal with the Athlete Advocacy Consortium, or AAC, founded by Bryan Hunt of J.B. Hunt. Those sorts of deals will only become more available with an extra year of college, and the money available to athletes at a program like Arkansas is nothing to turn your nose up at.
Notae or Toney could more than likely make more money playing an extra year of college basketball than they could in the G League or in a good number of overseas leagues. I have no idea whether they would return, but depending on how this season ends, they could want to return to help lead Arkansas to another historic NCAA Tournament run like last year while making more money they would have made in other pro leagues.
Or they could just want to be done with school. Either way, there’s a path and at least somewhat of a justification for them to come back.
