Despite a rough start to league play, the Arkansas basketball team (13-8, 2-6 SEC) still isn't entirely out of the NCAA Tournament picture.
Right now, most bracket projections don't include the Hoop Hogs, but after an 89-79 win over then-No. 12 Kentucky at Rupp Arena last Saturday, it's possible the Hogs can turn the corner and play their way back onto the bubble.
It won't be easy, and it should be stressed that the cards are heavily stacked against the Razorbacks, but it's not impossible. Given how strong the Southeastern Conference is this season — which coach John Calipari said he believes could be the strongest conference in college basketball history — there are ample opportunities to earn resume-boosting wins.
So, what's the magic number for Arkansas? Given the NCAA Tournament committee is human, there's not a hard and fast number. Realistically, six more wins, which will put the Razorbacks at 19-12 overall and 8-10 in conference play, should be good enough. There's also the SEC Tournament, which gives the Razorbacks more opportunities for resume builders.
There are 10 more games in Arkansas' regular season: at Texas, vs. Alabama, vs. LSU, at Texas A&M, at Auburn, vs. Missouri, vs. Texas, at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt and vs. Mississippi State. Here are Arkansas' chances to win in each of those games, according to KenPom:
- at Texas: 25%
- vs. Alabama: 32%
- vs. LSU: 75%
- at Texas A&M: 20%
- at Auburn: 5%
- vs. Missouri: 47%
- vs. Texas: 51%
- at South Carolina: 50%
- at Vanderbilt: 40%
- vs. Mississippi State: 55%
Going by those metrics, the Razorback's chances aren't great. They're going to have their backs against the wall from now to Selection Sunday, so they're going to need to get every win they can possibly get.
What's working in Arkansas' favor right now is the fact that they have no bad losses, as well as two marquee wins away from home — vs. Michigan at Madison Square Garden and at Kentucky. The Hogs missed out on Quad 1 wins against Baylor and Illinois, but both of those teams are trending upwards and the losses don't hurt them too much.
Before we get too much further into Arkansas' path to the tournament, it's important to understand the NET rankings the tournament committee will use and how it's graded.
The NET rankings break each game into four quadrants: Quad 1, Quad 2, Quad 3 and Quad 4. Each team is ranked No. 1 through 364, and wins and losses are viewed through this lens:
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The NET ranking evaluates game results, strength of schedule, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. The NCAA website says the number of Quad 1 wins and Quad 3 and 4 losses will be "incredibly important" for NCAA Tournament selection and seeding.
As it stands, Arkansas sits at No. 47 in the NET. It holds a 2-7 record in Quad 1 games, 1-1 in Quad 2, 3-0 in Quad 3 and 7-0 in Quad 4. The ranking is not the only thing the committee uses to determine who's in and who's out, but it's a big part of the process.
Games Arkansas can afford to lose
This list is short. The Hogs have already used up most of their goodwill with an 0-5 start to SEC play, and they need as many wins as possible to bolster that resume.
Still, let's keep expectations rational. Arkansas plays the No. 1 team in the nation, Auburn, on the road. The Tigers are undefeated in conference play, and their only loss is against Duke on Dec. 4. The best outcome for the Hogs in this one, outside of a massively improbable upset, is to keep things close and lose by less than 10.
There's also Saturday's home matchup with Alabama. The Crimson Tide are 8-1 in conference play and their only SEC loss is to Ole Miss. Again, the Hogs need to at least keep it close and not get run out of their own gym. The NET rankings factor in how many points teams lose by in their rankings, so a close loss isn't as detrimental as a blowout.
The last game that wouldn't be a season-ending loss is Texas A&M, though of the three games Arkansas can afford to lose, this feels like the one Arkansas is most likely able to pull out. In their last four games, the Aggies' highest win margin was seven points against Oklahoma. They only beat South Carolina by four and lost to Texas and Ole Miss by one point each in their last two games.
Still, it's a road game, and in the SEC, those are incredibly difficult. Texas A&M has only lost one game in College Station, but hey, so did Kentucky until the Hogs came to town.
Games Arkansas absolutely cannot afford to lose
Right now, the Razorbacks need all the Quad 1 wins they can get. Thankfully, there are ample opportunities to get them, as most teams in the league are in the first quadrant, according to the NET rankings.
There are two games that are not though: LSU at home and South Carolina on the road. Right now, LSU is ranked No. 74 in the NET rankings, and the fact that the game is at home means it's a Quad 2 matchup. The Hogs can afford a Quad 1 loss, theoretically, but a Quad 2 loss is a major blemish on an already bad resume.
In that same vein, South Carolina is ranked No. 92 in the NET. The Gamecocks are the only team in the SEC to still be winless in league play and they're 10-12 overall.
Road games are never easy in the SEC, but that's a game the Hogs absolutely have to win to stay above water in the NCAA Tournament race.
What's it going to take, realistically?
As mentioned above, six more SEC wins seems like a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, though the committee could think differently. The win over Kentucky last Saturday and the win over Michigan in the non-conference slate are big resume boosters and the fact that both came away from home helps a lot as well.
Because of how strong the league is, 8-10 in conference play is virtually a lock to make the dance, and 7-11 will at least give the committee a lot to think about. There's also the SEC Tournament in Nashville that will help as well.
Most seasons, fans talk down on the SEC Tournament because, if your ticket to the tournament is mostly locked up, it doesn't make sense to add more games when the team could rest and prepare. But in Arkansas' case, it could save its season.
Let's say, in theory, Arkansas finishes the regular season with a 7-11 record. Depending on the draw, two wins in the SEC Tournament will give them two more Quad 1 wins, or at the very least a Quad 1 and a Quad 2. They could technically play their way in with a 6-12 record, depending on how deep into the SEC Tournament they go, but the road is much more difficult.
There are also things outside of Arkansas' control that may help, too. Everyone loves to see the major upsets in conference tournaments, also known as "bid-stealers," but the more there are of those, the less chance Arkansas has of being selected. Simply put, the Razorbacks need as little competition on the bubble as possible.
The other thing that could help is if some of their conference peers start to rise in the NET rankings. Right now, LSU at home and South Carolina on the road are Quad 2 games. But if the Gamecocks can rattle off a string of victories, they could jump to a Quad 1. Because it's a road game, South Carolina needs to rise about 17 spots in the NET to be a Quad 1 opportunity. Not likely, but also not impossible either.
Similarly, Georgia is ranked at No. 34 in the NET rankings, and because Arkansas beat the Bulldogs at home, it's labeled a Quad 2 victory. To become a Quad 1 win, Georgia needs to get to above 30, which is more likely than South Carolina. It would be in the Hogs' best interest for the Bulldogs to improve their ranking, because it gives a boost to Arkansas' overall resume.
Wrapping it up
The cards are stacked against the Hogs right now. That fact has been well-known for a few weeks. But all hope is not lost. If the Razorbacks can bottle up any of the energy they had against Kentucky last weekend and become a more consistent shooting team, there is still a path to the Big Dance.
"We went back and watched film (of the Kentucky game) and showed them exactly what they did well, the energy they played with on defense, the concentration and the focus," Arkansas associate head coach Kenny Payne said Tuesday. "Being locked in to every single detail that’s going on in the game, both offensively and defensively. And said, ‘That’s the way we have to play. We have to play that way to finish the season and finish it off on the right note.’"
To put it in basic terms, here's what Arkansas needs to do: Beat LSU and South Carolina and win at least four of the other games remaining on their schedule — plus perform well in the SEC Tournament — to find their way into the tournament.
Of course, that's easier said than done. There are no days off in the SEC, and for the Razorbacks, they'll need to work tirelessly to turn the tide of what was once a dead season into one that ends with their name in the NCAA Tournament.
One other thing: Because the committee is human, it is possible they decide to put Arkansas in over other options because Calipari is the head coach. But trying to use the brand as a means to push to the top of the bubble doesn't seem like an effective method, so the Hogs will be better suited to let their play on the court determine their future, not the name of who is in charge of the team.
Arkansas' next Quad 1 opportunity comes Wednesday night, when the Hogs will take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. CT and the game will air on ESPN2.
