As we inch closer to the Major League Baseball draft, which will be held in California from Sunday-Tuesday, a good number of Hogs will be expecting to hear their names called.
The first two rounds will be held Sunday and that will include compensatory picks and competitive balance picks between the first and second round with a total of 80 selections. Rounds 3-10 will take place on Monday and 11-20 on Tuesday.
I have been working the phones with scouts and clubs across the nation to bring you the most up-to-date information on where current Razorbacks and signees might land or even get drafted at all.
The MLB draft is the hardest in terms of predicting what will happen. There are many factors at hand in determining who will be selected and where they may land.
The main factor is a player being signable based on their “bonus number”. Each selection in the first 10 rounds has a slot number assigned to it. Each club has a specific bonus pool in which to sign their draft picks. A team can be taxed if they go over their allotted bonus pool. Clubs have until August 1 to sign their picks.
Buckle up, it will be a crazy ride for draft eligible players and college coaching staffs over the next week.
After hours of conversations and research, this is what I believe will happen with current and signed Razorback players:
Most likely getting drafted:
Cayden Wallace - Sophomore 3B
Peyton Pallette - Junior RHP
Jalen Battles - Junior SS
Brady Slavens - Junior OF/1B
Cole Phillips - Freshman RHP
Mason Neville - Freshman OF
Analysis:
Wallace benefitted from the draft being moved to July, which allowed him to become eligible after two seasons because he will turn 21 within 45 days of the draft. He almost went in the 2020 draft as two teams, the Cardinals and Royals made late pushes for him but the teams could not reach his signing bonus which was believed to be in the 1.6 million to 2 million dollar range.
I expect him to be drafted in the 31-50 range.
Wallace was invited to the draft in California but elected to remain in Arkansas and celebrate with friends and family. Expect to hear his name on the first day with an interview on MLB Network after his selection.
The teams that have expressed the highest level of interest in Wallace are the Marlins, Royals, Cardinals, Diamondbacks and Guardians. He is widely considered one of the top college third basemen in the draft.
Pallette is coming off Tommy John surgery after being projected as the first college arm selected before the season began. His stock didn’t fall too much, as he is still a first day selection in the 40-65 range.
One scout labeled his metrics as “off the charts”. His curveball has been measured with spin rates at 3300 RPM, which is considered elite by MLB standards. He met with 15-18 clubs when he went to the draft combine and went through interviews and physicals.
The Padres have shown the most interest, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals plucked him either.
Battles wasn’t even supposed to be on campus this year, but he passed on money last year and likely improved his draft stock. His batting numbers were higher and he showed more consistency in the field. He gambled on himself and will likely make out a little better this year, as I'd expect him to go on Day 2 of the draft.
Brady Slavens has the power that plays in today’s pro game. He doesn’t have a real position, but he also has played five including designated hitter. He is a top-250 prospect and will hear his name called on Day 2, possibly into Day 3.
Phillips was destined to be a Hog after de-committing from Baylor last year. He worked hard in the off season to change his body and prepare for his senior season. The work paid off and then some, as he saw his fastball velocity jump from 95 mph to 100 mph.
His average velocity in a game jumped 3-4 mph as well. Phillips was able to make a few starts before tearing his UCL in March, requiring surgery. National Crosscheckers and scouts had seen enough from him to make him a top-3 round pick.
A torn UCL is obviously not the death sentence it has been in the past. Phillips has been rehabbing in Houston and was scheduled to move to Fayetteville on July 2 and begin summer classes, but he did not make the move. He would be a two-year guy anyway and not pitch in 2023 due to his injury, so my bet is he signs after being selected on Day 1.
Neville reminds scouts of a young Cody Bellinger. The centerfielder from Nevada has the size at 6-foot-3 and the speed that clubs salivate over. Combine that with a plus hit tool, and you have the makings of a five-tool prospect. He is ranked on many lists in the 80-110 range which would make him a 3rd round selection.
He hasn’t moved to campus yet, and his camp has been pretty tight-lipped in terms of future plans, but I feel he is a lot like Drew Gray from the 2021 class and signs out of high school for around a million dollars.
Probably not guaranteed:
Robert Moore - Junior 2B
Evan Taylor - Senior LHP
Connor Noland - Senior RHP
Zack Morris - Junior LHP
Jordan Sprinkle - Junior SS (Transfer)
Jayson Jones - Freshman 3B
Analysis:
Moore was a projected first day selection coming into the season but now he will have a decision to make. He started his draft clock early by enrolling halfway through his senior year of high school and played in the shortened 2020 season, but still has leverage because he has eligibility remaining.
His offensive numbers went down this season but the defense was remarkable, earning him a Gold Glove as the best second baseman in college baseball.
Moore doesn’t need the money, and he may want to make a run at being the everyday shortstop next season to increase his draft stock. I could see him being selected in the 3-5 round range, but like I said, he has the luxury of being very selective with where he lands.
Taylor was the biggest surprise out of the Hog bullpen this year and will likely be rewarded with a late round selection. He will have to decide if he wants to begin his pro career or become a little more polished and show a larger body of work. He is an older player with little leverage, so I expect a Day 3 selection for the lefty.
Noland’s situation has been dissected and discussed by just about every media outlet in Arkansas, but here is my take: Connor has to decide if he really wants to be a professional pitcher or finish his masters and help the Hogs get back to Omaha.
His stock will likely not get any higher, and he has thrown a lot of innings as a Razorback. How many more innings does he have left is the biggest question. Noland loves Fayetteville and I could very well see him pitching at Baum-Walker Stadium next season.
I could see an Evan Lee type situation for Noland, with him being selected in rounds 8-12 or maybe even a little later with a low six-figure signing bonus.
Morris put himself on draft boards with a solid junior season by doing a complete 180 in the matter of two months. The Cabot product arrive in 2019 with high expectations, and we saw some of the potential in the spring of 2020.
He struggled in 2021, but made the necessary changes and became a very reliable option down the stretch this season. He needs to refine the off-speed a bit more, but teams like the makeup and think he could be a mid-90s arm.
Morris has leverage with the extra year and he could push for a rotation spot next season if he comes back to campus.
Sprinkle recently committed to the Razorbacks after entering the portal, but has been on draft boards for well over a year now. His freshman campaign had him in rarified air with possible top pick Brooks Lee from Cal Poly, as both shared Freshman of the Year honors in the Big West.
Before the season, Sprinkle was viewed as a 2nd round pick and a possible 1st rounder. He struggled a little this season at the plate for the UC Santa Barbara and his stock slipped.
His situation is very similar to Moore's. Sprinkle could very well decide he wants to take a shot in the SEC and get back to seven figure bonus money for 2023.
The Razorback staff has loaded up on infielders in the offseason with Sprinkle being the best candidate to replace Battles at shortstop.
Jones was set to be the next Nolan Arenado. That was 2021 when he was rated as a top-10 player in the 2022 class by Perfect Game. Fast forward a year and 30 pounds later, and he will likely stay at Arkansas and have a chance to start at third base next season.
He has a ton of power and is a batting practice marvel. He won the Home Run Derby at the Batting Factory Showcase last year, but struggled with plus pitching after that. Scouts want to see how he adjusts to a new position and if he can regain some of his mobility since his body as matured in the past year.
“Anything 85 or below, he looks like an all star, but he cannot handle the higher end arms right now," an anonymous scout said. "He is no longer on our board, and I think he ends up going to school.”
Jones could still hear his name called, but I do not expect teams to throw a big number at him which bodes well for the Razorbacks.
Late pick or free agency:
Michael Turner - Senior C
Chris Lanzilli - Senior OF
Braydon Webb - Senior OF
Zebulon Vermillion - Senior RHP
Harold Coll - Junior SS (Transfer)
Analysis:
The “Rental Players” had good seasons in helping the Hogs get back to Omaha.
Turner had big shoes to fill and he did it admirably. He may stay behind the plate or could move to first or third at the next level. He is a professional hitter and worthy of a draft selection.
Lanzilli was a homer machine coming out of Wake Forest, and he showed some grit in hitting over .300 this past season. He is an average defensive outfielder and I see him landing on a pro roster just because of the power potential.
Webb will not get a big signing bonus, but he follows in the footsteps of Hog centerfielders who were high draft picks and that is not forgotten by teams. He has plus speed, above average power and has been around the game for a while. He could be a veteran presence that moves up the ladder in an organization if he produces.
Vermillion is potential never realized at Arkansas. He was a top-350 prospect after the 2020 season, and that was as high as he ever got in terms of draft potential. The staff was really surprised he did not go in the 2020 draft, but he never capitalized on the momentum. He is big and has an upper 90s fastball so someone will take a chance on him.
Coll is an interesting case. He was a potential draft pick coming out of high school in 2020, but went undrafted and honored his commitment to North Carolina. Things did not work out with the Tar Heels, so he went to national JUCO powerhouse San Jacinto.
He had a big sophomore year at San Jac and committed to the Razorbacks. He has played in the MLB Draft League this summer and has put up impressive numbers at the plate. He is not listed on many draft boards, but scouts like his game and he could hear his name called.
He knows he will have to compete at Arkansas this fall for a spot in the lineup, so his signing bonus number will be the key to if he makes it to campus or not.
The draft will be televised on MLB Network and ESPN and for the second straight year, it is part of the All Star festivities.
Things will start at 6 p.m. CT Sunday and 1 p.m. CT on both Monday and Tuesday.
