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Published Oct 27, 2023
Musselman aims to join Richardson, Sutton with Year 5 jump
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Jackson Collier  •  HawgBeat
Basketball Recruiting Analyst
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@JacksonCollier
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We are just weeks away from the official beginning of year five of the Eric Musselman era in Fayetteville and expectations are as high as ever during his tenure.

After another lauded transfer class, two more highly-ranked freshmen and returning five contributors from a Sweet Sixteen team, the Arkansas fanbase is itching for basketball season again.

Musselman has experienced early success in Fayetteville, complete with three consecutive second-weekend appearances in the NCAA Tournament, including two Elite Eights. Is there reason to believe year five could even surpass Musselman's early success? History seems to indicate yes.

There have been six head coaches dating back to when Eddie Sutton took the head job in 1974, and only one of them has not been given a fifth year. Arkansas fired John Pelphrey in 2011 after a third consecutive losing conference record and only one NCAA Tournament birth in his first year.

Year five has been a major turning point, for better or worse, for the direction of each coach's tenure. While Musselman has had the most early success thus far of any of the other coaches, there is still room to improve, and certainly room to fall. Will the trend continue?

Year 5 results for Arkansas basketball coaches
Coach (Year 5)RecordConference FinishNCAA Tournament?SeedFinish

Mike Anderson (2015-2016)

16-16 (9-9)

8th SEC

No

N/A

N/A

Stan Heath (2006-2007)

21-14 (7-9)

3rd SEC West

Yes

12

First Round

Nolan Richardson (1989-1990)

30-5 (14-2)

1st SWC

Yes

4

Final Four

Eddie Sutton (1978-1979)

25-5 (13-3)

1st SWC

Yes

2

Elite Eight

Eddie Sutton's best year as the Arkansas head coach came in year four, as he led the Razorbacks to a Final Four and a 32-4 record. He followed that up in year five with another impressive season, making it to the Elite Eight and peaking at No. 5 in the AP Poll.

While Sutton's fifth year wasn't a "jump" per se, it further established Arkansas as a legitimate basketball power. After the fifth year, Sutton and his Razorbacks rattled off six-straight NCAA Tournament appearances, only losing in the first round once, and making it as far as the Sweet Sixteen twice.

Where Sutton had experienced grand success before year five, Nolan Richardson had not. It is always difficult to replace a legend, and that's exactly what the former Tulsa head coach had to do in replacing Sutton.

The transition from a slower-paced, half court team to the 40 Minutes of Hell style that Richardson ran was not a smooth one, as the Razorbacks limped out of the gate to a 12-16 record in year one. Year two saw the Razorbacks escape the NIT with a victory over Arkansas State, and finally years three and four saw back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances, with a first and second round exit, respectively.

There was momentum in the air entering year five, and the Razorbacks exploded on the national scene, making it all the way to the Final Four and finishing ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll. Richardson led the Razorbacks back to the promised land, matching the deepest postseason run in program history in his fifth year. That season set the stage for consistently ranked teams, deep tournament runs, and an eventual national championship — almost two.

While the two best coaches in program history had significant fifth year performances, that has not always been the case for recent coaches.

Arkansas hired Stan Heath to replace Richardson, and the start was much, much worse than the first two years of the Richardson era. Heath went 9-19 and 12-16 in years one and two, with year three requiring a significant improvement. It was significant, but only managed an 18-12 record and no NCAA Tournament birth.

Heath finally led the program to the NCAA Tournament in year four as an 8-seed, losing in the first round to Bucknell. They took another step back in year five ended with a 12-seed Tournament birth and another first round loss, and Heath was promptly fired. While there was slow improvement, year five saw another regression and an inability to meet standards set by coaches Sutton and Richardson.

John Pelphrey replaced Heath and didn't even have the chance for a fifth year jump after one NCAA Tournament appearance in four years. The Razorbacks moved on to Mike Anderson, a former Richardson assistant who had taken UAB to the Sweet Sixteen and Missouri to the Elite Eight.

Anderson was in rebuild mode, but started out with records of 18-14, 19-13, and 22-12, although no NCAA Tournament appearances. The former assistant finally earned an NCAA Tournament birth in year four as the Head Hog, earning a 5-seed and losing in the Round of 32.

After a strong year four, there was excitement that Anderson could right the ship and return Arkansas to its rightful place in the national spotlight, however that proved not to be the case with his fifth year showing signs of what was to come.

Arkansas had a talented team in 2014 that included first-round NBA Draft pick Bobby Portis and All-SEC selection Michael Qualls. Both left after that season to play professionally, and Anderson showed no ability to replace them, leading to a fifth-year slump that resulted in a disappointing 16-16 season.

Anderson made two more NCAA Tournaments in the next three seasons, but never made it to the second weekend. He landed strong talents, but never showed the ability to replace them as they left or land even better talent, so he was terminated.

So, what does this all mean for Eric Musselman? The Head Hog is entering year five, expectations are high, as his team comes in ranked No. 14 in the preseason AP Poll, and another talented roster. Does he take a jump similar to Richardson or maintain what he's done thus far similar to Sutton?

The next test will be likely as tough as any, as No. 3 Purdue is coming to town Saturday for a charity exhibition matchup. Tipoff is set for 3 p.m. CT inside of Bud Walton Arena and the game will be streamed live on the SEC Network+.

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